Analysis of the emergency service applying the queueing theory

Those responsible for the decision-making in hospitals are becoming more aware of the need to efficiently manage hospital systems. One option is the queueing models. In this work, the Emergency service of a public hospital is analyzed by applying the concepts and relations of queues. Based on the results of the model, it is concluded that the Emergency area does not count with the minimum number of doctors necessary for a constant flow of patients. The minimum number of doctors necessary to satisfy the current and future service demand, with the same service times and service disciplines, is calculated using the model. The analytical models allow to directly understand the existing relations between service demand, number of doctors and the attention priority of the patient seen as a system of queues. The work is of use to managers and those responsible for the management of hospital systems.     

Recontextualizing Clarence Ayres’s The Theory of Economic Progress through Archival Evidence

Abstract

Our article seeks to recontextualize Clarence Ayres’s The Theory of Economic Progress through a reconsideration of the criticisms of the book and Ayres’s personal standpoint on it. We believe that the negative reception of the book conveys the mainstream perspective. Additionally, our article stresses some of Ayres’s thoughts on Western society that were not included in The Theory of Economic Progress but were introduced by him through correspondence around the same time his famous book was written and disseminated. We conclude that Ayres was more radical than his writings reveal.     

Stochastic vs. deterministic frontier distance output function: Evidence from Brazilian higher education institutions

Journal of Productivity Analysis - Using data from the Brazilian Higher Education Census and other public institutions, this study aims to obtain and compare efficiency scores from stochastic...     

The finance-investment and saving-funding circuit in the closed and open economies with government

This contribution discusses the Finance-Investment and Saving-Funding (FISF) circuit regarding the closed and open economies with government. Moreover, we discuss the fiscal policy effects on aggregate demand and income in the FISF circuit context. Keynes explained the FISF circuit assuming a closed economy without government. The novelty of the current contribution is to analyze the abovementioned circuit in the closed and open economy context including government. We show that the basic features of the FISF circuit remain unchanged for the closed and open economies when government is considered in the circuit.     

International mobility of capital,wage indexation,and the cost of policy mistakes under ambiguity: a CGE evaluation

In this paper we focus on the role institutions and structural parameters play in macroeconomic policy design and test the differential effects of tax policies on two structural parameters: the degree of international capital mobility and the rules of wage indexation practiced in the economy. We evaluate counterfactual changes in taxation in the Argentine economy using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model with unemployment, calibrated with 2006 data, showing that policy mistakes (diagnosis failures) are costlier when the degree of capital mobility is greater and the rules to determine salaries could amplify the losses. Among other taxes, we evaluate the choice of export taxation, historically one of the preferred revenue sources of Argentine governments. We discuss the choice of taxes that an optimistic and a pessimistic policymaker will make under Knightian uncertainty and find that, in the case of our CGE, an optimistic policymaker prefers to tax export goods, while a more pessimistic one tends to tax imports or non-tradable goods.     

Bootstrap validity for the score test when instruments may be weak

It is well-known that size adjustments based on bootstrapping the t$t$-statistic perform poorly when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous explanatory variable. In this paper, we provide a theoretical proof that guarantees the validity of the bootstrap for the score statistic. This theory does not follow from standard results, since the score statistic is not a smooth function of sample means and some parameters are not consistently estimable when the instruments are uncorrelated with the explanatory variable.     

Estimation and forecasting in vector autoregressive moving average models for rich datasets

We address the issue of modelling and forecasting macroeconomic variables using rich datasets by adopting the class of Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models. We overcome the estimation issue that arises with this class of models by implementing an iterative ordinary least squares (IOLS) estimator. We establish the consistency and asymptotic distribution of the estimator for weak and strong VARMA(p,q) models. Monte Carlo results show that IOLS is consistent and feasible for large systems, outperforming the MLE and other linear regression based efficient estimators under alternative scenarios. Our empirical application shows that VARMA models are feasible alternatives when forecasting with many predictors. We show that VARMA models outperform the AR(1), ARMA(1,1), Bayesian VAR, and factor models, considering different model dimensions.     

Labor Informality: Choice or Sign of Segmentation? A Quantile Regression Approach at the Regional Level for Colombia

The labor market in developing countries is remarkably heterogeneous, with a small productive formal sector characterized by high wages and attractive employment conditions, and a large informal sector characterized by low productivity and volatile wages. The informal sector is particularly diverse. In this paper, we examine the heterogeneity of the informal sector at the regional level in Colombia. In general, our findings suggest that both voluntary and involuntary informal employment co‐exist by choice and as a consequence of labor market segmentation. We also find that there are striking differences in labor market characteristics across cities, particularly with respect to informal employment.     

Responsibility or autonomy: children and the probability of self-employment in the USA

This paper studies the effect of children on the likelihood of self-employment. Having children can change preferences that are central to the decision whether to be self-employed. On the one hand, individuals’ preference for autonomy and flexibility increases when having children, which increases the willingness to be self-employed. On the other hand, having children entails a responsibility over someone else, which increases individual risk aversion and decreases the willingness to be self-employed. Using a pooled cross section of 26 years from the General Social Survey, instrumental variable estimates indicate that, in the USA, having children under the age of 18 in the household decreases the likelihood of being self-employed by 11 % (i.e., the responsibility effect dominates). This effect is considerable as a child decreases the probability of self-employment more than the increase associated with being raised by a self-employed father—one of the main determinants of self-employment.     

Securitization without risk transfer

We analyze asset-backed commercial paper conduits, which experienced a shadow-banking run and played a central role in the early phase of the financial crisis of 2007–2009. We document that commercial banks set up conduits to securitize assets worth $1.3 trillion while insuring the newly securitized assets using explicit guarantees. We show that regulatory arbitrage was an important motive behind setting up conduits. In particular, the guarantees were structured so as to reduce regulatory capital requirements, more so by banks with less capital, and while still providing recourse to bank balance sheets for outside investors. Consistent with such recourse, we find that conduits provided little risk transfer during the run, as losses from conduits remained with banks instead of outside investors and banks with more exposure to conduits had lower stock returns.