A class of flat prior distributions for the Poisson‐gamma hierarchical model

A wide class of prior distributions for the Poisson‐gamma hierarchical model is proposed. Prior distributions in this class carry vague information in the sense that their tails exhibit slow decay. Conditions for the propriety of the resulting posterior density are determined, as well as for the existence of posterior moments of the Poisson rate of either an observed or an unobserved unit.     

THE FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE TO PUBLIC DEBT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Theoretical models on fiscal sustainability hypothesize that indebted governments can lower their current debt by generating future primary surpluses, ceteris paribus. While both developed and developing countries struggle with the issue of debt stabilization, the latter, in particular face heightened sensitivity from creditors, which provides them an impetus to respond more strongly to stabilize their debt. Based on a panel of 53 developing countries, we examine the fiscal response of these countries to changes in their debt‐to‐gross domestic product ratio. We find evidence of a positive relationship between the debt and primary surplus and that countries adjust along both the revenue and expenditure margins at roughly the same rate. (JEL E62, H50, O11)     

The complexities of corporate science and technology development: the triple uncertainty analytical framework

In this paper, we introduce an analytical framework – called the Triple Uncertainty (TU) – that casts strong doubt on both the existence of a linear path leading to organisational innovation and the alleged accuracy of most R&D performance metrics. This framework, grounded on both the analysis of field-data and actor-network theory underpinnings, emphasises the importance of a series of uncertainties that pervade the management of techno-scientific projects. According to the TU framework, the management of techno-scientific projects hinges on the choice of mode of organisational coordination. To illustrate this thesis, we analyse in this paper the managerial complexities of a techno-scientific R&D project at Tenaris (a world-leading manufacturer of steel-tubes) whose intended outcome is a computer simulation of a critical industrial process.     

Leverage and firm value

Three highly cited studies with over 6000 citations collectively report a negative relationship between the market value of the firm and leverage. Such empirical findings clearly contradict the hypothesis of leverage adding value to the firm and an optimal capital structure that maximizes firm value—these findings have yet to be resolved. Employing a sample of 3,768 firms consisting of 39,015 observations, a stochastic frontier analysis was used to assess the relationship of leverage among other capital structure factors with firm value. It was found that in general the use of leverage promotes firm value, consistent with the trade-off theory and that the inverse relationship between leverage and firm value was a temporary occurrence and is likely attributable to firms employing tax loss carrybacks in response to the 1986 Tax Reform Act. The estimates of technical efficiency indicate that many firms can do more to increase their value, the sample as a whole improves efficiency (value) over the sample period. The findings reconcile the reports of leverage decreasing firm value as reported in Baker and Wurgler, Fama and French, and Habib and Ljungqvist. The empirical findings suggest prior observation was a due to a decline in the value of the tax shield generated by leverage after the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Specifically, tax carrybacks extended the pre-Tax Reform Act of 1986 tax shield value to 1991 and after 1991 the tax shield value declined.     

Recent decline in wage inequality and formalization of the labour market in Argentina

Labour market conditions improved during the 2000s in Latin America, a process that included a reduction in the magnitude of informal employment. A decline of wage inequality was another feature of this period. Both dynamics were particularly intense in Argentina. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the role played by the process of formalization of the labour market that occurred in Argentina during that period on the reduction of income inequality, while additionally taking into account other factors that might have also contributed to such dynamics of income inequality. The method employed is a decomposition proposed by Firpo, Fortin and Lemieux, which allows extending the Oaxaca-Blinder approach to decompose some distributive statistics of income between a ‘composition effect’ and a ‘returns effect’. The study concludes that the process of increasing labour market formalization had an equalizing effect over the period, a finding that had not been emphasized in previous studies.     

The Information Content of Share Repurchase Programs

Contrary to the implications of many payout theories, we find that announcements of open‐market share repurchase programs are not followed by an increase in operating performance. However, we find that repurchasing firms experience a significant reduction in systematic risk and cost of capital relative to non‐repurchasing firms. Further, consistent with the free cash‐flow hypothesis, we find that the market reaction to share repurchase announcements is more positive among those firms that are more likely to overinvest. Finally, we find evidence to indicate that investors underreact to repurchase announcements because they initially underestimate the decline in cost of capital.     

Conservation agriculture practices adopted in southern Brazil

The adoption of conservation agriculture (CA) practices are essential for soil and water conservation. In CA, farmers must adopt no-tillage (NT) with crop rotation to maintain a permanent soil cover. In Brazil, mainly in the South region, for CA to be more efficient, practices such as contour farming and agricultural terraces should also be adopted. Thus, the objective of this study is to determine the extent to which NT has been adopted with crop rotation and others soil and water conservation practices. Data from the Agricultural Census in Paraná State, southern Brazil, were used. For the data analysis, the relationship between the level of adoption of NT and the use of crop rotation, contour farming and agricultural terraces was analyzed. A factor and cluster analysis were performed to distinguish regions in terms of soil and water conservation practices. The results show good overall soil and water conservation practices, although heterogeneity has been observed in the adoption practices between regions. Adoption of NT is high in almost all the studied regions. The conservation practice most widely used with NT is contour farming, whereas the least used is agricultural terraces. Conservation practices for runoff control are being neglected by farmers.     

Is Petrobras Options Market Efficient? A Study Using the Delta-Gamma Neutral Strategy

This study aims to verify if the Petrobras options market is efficient in its weak form. For this purpose, this work tries to make profits on a systematic basis through delta-gamma neutral strategies using the firm’s stocks and options. In order to simulate the strategy as it would be used in the real world, we built order books every five minutes considering all buy and sell orders sent for both the underlying asset and its options. We apply the strategy when we observe distortions between implied volatilities extracted from the options. The results show evidence that the Petrobras options market is not efficient, since in 371 day-trade transactions (with an average investment of R$81,000 and an average holding time of one hour and thirteen minutes), 85% of the options strategies were profitable and the average return was 0.49%, which corresponds to more than 1600% of the highest interbank interest rate for the period.     

Dividends, Share Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis

We show that repurchases have not only became an important form of payout for U.S. corporations, but also that firms finance their share repurchases with funds that otherwise would have been used to increase dividends. We find that young firms have a higher propensity to pay cash through repurchases than they did in the past and that repurchases have become the preferred form of initiating a cash payout. Although large, established firms have generally not cut their dividends, they also show a higher propensity to pay out cash through repurchases. These findings indicate that firms have gradually substituted repurchases for dividends. Our results also suggest that before 1983, regulatory constraints inhibited firms from aggressively repurchasing shares.     

An implementation of the Owen value

We present an implementation of the Owen value (Owen, 1977, Essays in Mathematical Economics and Game Theory, pp. 76–88), inspired by the bidding mechanism introduced by Pérez-Castrillo and Wettstein (2001, J. Econ. Theory 100, 274–294). The idea is the following: first players of each coalition play the bidding mechanism trying to obtain the resources of the coalition. Later, players who obtained the resources play the bidding mechanism in order to share the surplus.