Geleitwort

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Former Soviet Union

Statistical Annex

Former Soviet Union     

Inflation Targeting - the Holy Grail of Monetary Policy?

Inflation targeting is a statement about the objective of central bank policy and not about operating procedures. Its success depends not only on the actions of the central bank, but requires a broad consensus concerning the proper role of monetary policy in the economy. It also requires the backing of a sound fiscal policy. As countries differ both in economic structure and monetary transmission mechanism, the implementation of inflation targeting must be country specific. Instability over time in the transmission mechanism also implies that inflation targeting strategies must evolve to avoid the fate of previous monetary policy targeting practices.     

‘… More of Keynes and Less of Milton Friedman!’ 1

This paper gives an account of the scientific work of a pioneer whose heterodox ideas stimulated debate in development economics for more than three decades. It will be shown that his intellectual biography—in particular, his experiences as a victim of National Socialism—provided an important stimulus for his commitment to the problems of the socially underprivileged. This led him to initiate several studies of unemployment in the depressed areas of Great Britain during the Great Depression and the Second World War. Then, starting from the late 1940s, during the years of his affiliation with the UN, he made pathbreaking contributions to the economics of underdevelopment in fields such as the deterioration of terms of trade, the basic needs strategy, and food security. The topics will be discussed both in the context of history of thought and with regard to recent work in development economics.     

A second warning by the club of Rome

The growth of managed care has been accompanied by calls for increased government regulation because HMOs and other forms of managed care are seen by the public as more concerned about controlling costs than with protecting the rights of patients to quality care. This paper applies a theory of health care rights and clinical evidence of managed care quality in an analysis of public opinion about managed care. The paper concludes that there is no persuasive evidence that managed care has resulted in a general deterioration in the quality of care and that, with one exception, restrictions imposed by managed care plans are consistent with a theory of health care rights. The paper concludes with the recommendation that public policy should dispense with attempts to fine tune managed care and address an unquestionable violation of health care rights, the failure to guarantee a minimum standard of care to some 43 million Americans.     

Quarterly US unemployment: Cycles,seasons and asymmetries

This paper documents three stylized facts for the quarterly unemployment rate in the United States. Firstly, unemployment is asymmetric over the business cycle, i.e. it rises sharply in recessions and it falls slowly in expansions. Secondly, its seasonal fluctuations are not constant across the two business cycle stages in the sense that there is less seasonality in recession periods. Thirdly, the effect of shocks to the unemployment rate in expansions seem transitory, while this effect is permanent in recessions. Some implications of these stylized facts for empirical macroeconomics and seasonal adjustment are discussed.     

Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition

The aim of this paper is to quantify the welfare effects of some currently discussed pension reform proposals in Germany. The analysis is based on an extended overlapping-generations model which accounts for intra-generational heterogeneity, rising life expectancy and declining fertility. Given a baseline path of the economy under the existing unfunded pension system, the model calculates the macroeconomic impact as well as the distributional and efficiency effects of various pension reform measures aimed at reducing the level of the future unfunded pension system. Simulations reveal that pension reforms cannot be evaluated solely in terms of inter- and intra-generational equity. Substantial efficiency gains or losses might arise if the linkage between contributions and benefits is improved or weakened.     

The Education of a Technology Policy Analyst—to Process Management

Technology policy analysis emphasizes logical resolution of issues based on conceptual models, data, and analyses, but this often is not enough to accomplish anything. Policy-makers routinely disregard policy analyses, even when well done, timely, and pertinent to the issues at hand. Process management complements policy analysis by directing attention to the interactions through which disparate interests reconcile their differences to initiate viable action. We pose five questions that constitute a situational analysis decision tree. Based on answers to those questions, we distinguish five action approaches (including ‘do nothing’) that can enhance the utilization of technology analyses. These approaches demand skills, not always paramount in policy analysts, to run processes that engage stakeholders. We illustrate how process management can enhance the utilization of technology policy analysis through a hypothetical case.