Resource utilisation Efficiency: A South African Provincial Evaluation

The objective of this paper is to analyse the utilisation of production capacity and total under‐utilisation in order to identify weak‐performing industries across the nine South African provinces. Detecting inefficiencies within the different provinces will help to identify where sound managerial or government intervention is required, which can contribute to the future success of the New Growth Path Framework and the Strategic Integrated Projects. Using a multistage data envelopment analysis model at the subnational level, several categories of production factors are explored: intermediate demand, labour, capital, as well as taxes and subsidies. The results emphasise South Africa's weak infrastructure and the failure to effectively promote stability in managing factor inputs. The results further illustrate that industry scale efficiency for water and electricity are poorest across all provinces, highlighting the current water and energy supply concerns in South Africa and problem areas associated with the National Development Program.     

Stochastic Generational Accounting Applied to Reforms of Dutch Occupational Pensions

This paper examines stochastic or ‘value based’ generational accounting as a method to assess the intergenerational redistributive impact of pension reform. The analysis is applied to three policy changes to the regulation of Dutch occupational pensions during the years 2012 and 2013 that mark the transition from defined benefit pensions to ‘defined ambition’ pension schemes.     

On a 2 × 2 factorial design where the use of randomized response is one of the factors

This paper discusses a survey where some respondents were asked sensitive questions directly and others were asked the same questions using randomized response. The use of randomized response was a factor in a 2 × 2 factorial design and dice were used to perform the randomization. First, the paper shows that the perturbation due to the dice can be described using the concept of misclassification and known conditional misclassification probabilities. Second, the paper formulates the likelihood for loglinear models and shows that latent class software can be used to analyse the data. An example including a power analysis is discussed.     

卫生技术评估：德国视角

自20世纪90年代末以来,卫生技术评估（Health Technology Assessment,HTA）在德国引起了广泛讨论,这与循证医学的产生是密切相关的。在德国进行技术评估的论点首先由“国会技术评估办公室”提出。随后Hanover医学院进行的一个科学项目进一步支持了需要进行技术评估的论点,该项目旨在评估在德国卫生保健系统中HTA评估的应用与收益。1997年,德国成立了卫生保健技术评估科学工作组,     

Asia's ‘little divergence’ in the twentieth century: evidence from PPP-based direct estimates of GDP per capita, 1913–69

This article uses expenditure-based purchasing power parities (PPPs) to estimate GDP per capita in comparable prices for 12 Asian countries for six benchmark years during the period 1913–69. The article finds that in 1913 levels of real GDP per capita in several countries were comparable to those in Japan. GDP per capita in Japan and other Asian countries diverged during and after the First World War. The article questions whether Asia's ‘little divergence’ between Japan and other Asian countries dates back to the late eighteenth century. It draws attention to the different resource endowments of Japan, China, and India compared to other Asian countries, and their implications for the development trajectories of Asian countries. The article demonstrates that using historical PPP estimates yields estimates of GDP per capita that diverge from those based on retropolations of the single 1990 PPP-converted benchmark year. It concludes that historical estimates of PPPs are needed to confirm analyses of comparative economic performance based on available GDP per capita data.     

Coping with extreme climate events: Institutional flocking

The article explores the governance structures that would be needed to cope with extreme and unpredictable climate change. The impacts on the Netherlands of a Gulf Stream collapse in the Northern Atlantic are taken as a case. This hypothetical situation of serious risks and high uncertainties requires governance arrangements with high potentials for rapid and radical change. Using the metaphor of the flocking of birds, we characterize these arrangements as ‘institutional flocking’. Main features of institutional flocking are: (1) flexible opportunities for actors to swiftly respond to change through creative forms of collaboration and participation; (2) rapid and pervasive processes of learning and institutionalization of new knowledge among actors; (3) strong and institutionalized care for coherence and solidarity, to bind the various parts of the ‘flock’. We illustrate and articulate these features for two sectors in Dutch society, urban infrastructure and rural planning.     

Graduated Punishments in Public Good Games

I explain the ubiquitous use of graduated punishments by studying a repeated public good game in which a social planner imperfectly monitors agents to detect shirkers. Agents’ cost of contributing is private information and administering punishments is costly. Using graduated punishments can be optimal for two reasons. It increases the price of future wrongdoing (temporal spillover effect) and it can lead to bad types revealing themselves (screening effect). The temporal spillover effect is always present if graduated punishments prevail, but screening need not occur if agents face a finite horizon. Whether or not a screening effect is exploited has a substantial impact on both outcomes and actual punishments. If the temporal spillover effect is sufficiently strong, then first‐time shirkers are merely warned.     

Matchmaking in organizational change: Does every employee value participatory leadership? An empirical study

Although leadership is generally considered an important lever to increase commitment during organizational change, empirical research has yet to unravel many of the underlying mechanisms. In this paper, we propose that the impact of participative leadership on affective commitment to change will be contingent on employees’ orientation toward leadership. In our empirical study in two police organizations, we find evidence that followers’ orientation toward leadership is a useful interacting variable. Participative leadership lowers affective commitment to change for individuals with high dominance orientation. In contrast, participative leadership increases affective commitment to change for employees with high development orientation toward leadership. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.