Remarks on the foundations of actuarial science

Abstract

In a paper entjtled ?Critical Thoughts on Actuarial Science? read before the Swedish Actuarial Society and published in this part of the Journal K. ENGLUND has expressed some views which gave rise to objections also from my part in the verbal discussion at the meeting of the Society. In the following lines I have tried to develop my views about the most important questions touched upon in his paper.     

Agents as Empirical Macroeconomists: Thomas J. Sargent’s Contribution to Economics*

Thomas J. Sargent has fundamentally changed and, in the words of Art Rolnick, who interviewed him in 2010, “irrevocably transformed” the field of macroeconomics—whether as sole author, as co‐author with collaborators, as an author influenced by others, or as a teacher of the profession, influencing others. This paper is about his contribution to our field. The Nobel Memorial prize to Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims has been awarded for the “empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy” or, more broadly, for macroeconometrics. One often likes to distinguish between theorists, on the one hand, and empiricists and econometricians, on the other. Thomas J. Sargent holds a unique position in between. A key theme in a large part of his work has been to put the agents in his model on equal footing with the econometrician who is observing data from the model (i.e., to assume that agents are themselves empirical macroeconomists or macroeconometricians). In this paper, I use this theme to examine his work and his contributions to the study of economics.     

Ein Reservierungsverfahren für die Rechtsschutzversicherung nach Art der Lebensversicherung

In this paper we introduce a new approach to the calculation of claims reserves (known and IBNR cases) which is particularly adapted to the business model of legal expense insurance. An essential aspect here is the split into two model components: case numbers and average claim costs. In contrast to other reserving methods for case numbers and claims cash flows which are frequently used in practice without checking the validity for application we introduce a model in which the time until case settlement is described by a lifetime distribution according to the principles of life insurance. The split of model components also allows for a simple implementation of cost inflation effects which is required by German law. Finally, the approach proposed here can readily be transferred to the calculation of IBNR reserves.     

The CAP for Turkey? Potential Market Effects and Budgetary Implications

EU accession negotiations with Turkey are scheduled to start in October 2005. The period of accession negotiations will probably last for ten years or longer, but the effects of applying the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to Turkey are currently a controversial discussion in the EU. Effects of Turkish accession on EU agricultural markets are likely to be small. The EU would gain additional export opportunities for cereals and animal products. On the other hand, Turkish agricultural exports to the EU are projected to increase for only a few fruit and vegetable products. EU budgetary outlays for the application of the CAP to Turkey could total between £3.5 and £6.3 billion in 2015 – depending on whether direct payments are phased in or not – and £5.4 billion in 2025. Most of these outlays would be for direct payments to agricultural producers and that may not be in Turkey's best interest. This is because direct payments tend to be capitalized in land prices and may thus inhibit the necessary process of improving the Turkish agricultural structure. Transfers under the second pillar of the CAP may hold more interest for Turkey, because they can be targeted at improving productivity and thereby income. Projected outlays for the CAP take a backseat to projected transfers to Turkey under the structural policy of the EU.     

A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer

In this paper, we propose a new profit-to-provisioning approach that can be used in the macroprudential decision-making process. We construct new Banking Prudence Indicators (BPI) that largely capture the risk of cyclicality of profit and loan loss provisions and should monitor the forward-looking ability of the expected credit loss approach under International Financial Reporting Standard 9. We evaluate the performance of our newly proposed BPIs using two econometric exercises. Overall, they exhibit good statistical properties, are relevant to the countercyclical capital buffer decision-making process, and might contribute to a more precise assessment of both systemic risk accumulation and risk materialization.     

The EMF uncertainty problem related to mobile phones: where do consumers place their trust?

This paper addresses the uncertainty problem, i.e. cases characterized by lack of knowledge or scientific uncertainty. In such situations, it can be hard for consumers to ‘voice’ or practise consumer power. One field characterized by the uncertainty problem is electromagnetic radiation. An explicit goal of this study has been to articulate Norwegian consumers' practices, attitudes and beliefs regarding electromagnetic radiation from mobile phones to public authorities and consumer policy makers. The study was based on 1000 telephone interviews collected in 2008. Today, experts disagree on the potential health effects of radiation from electromagnetic fields (EMF), as well as standards for safe limits of exposure to mobile phones, base stations and wireless telecommunication systems. In addition, complicated technology and extremely rapid product development and diffusion leave consumers' security considerations to their own beliefs and trust. Whether or not electromagnetic radiation from mobile phones constitutes a health hazard will not be addressed in this paper. Rather, it will focus on how consumers react to this situation of uncertainty. The material reveals four main ways in which consumers can solve what we have named the EMF uncertainty problem: the confident and comfortable way, the sceptical and cautious way, the responsible and good citizen way, and finally, the neglecting way. The paper also discusses the precautionary principle related to EMF. Who should be precautionary: the public authorities, the mobile phone industry or the consumers themselves? We believe that a consistent governmental precautionary policy in combination with consumers taking their own precautionary measures is a viable solution. In this way, all consumers would be addressed and aided when navigating this field of uncertainty.     

Post‐Reunification Restructuring and Corporate Re‐bundling in the Bitterfeld‐Wolfen Chemical Industry,East Germany

While earlier research has shown that regional restructuring after reunification has led to broad de‐industrialization processes in eastern Germany's chemical industry, this article focuses on how re‐bundling processes at the corporate level have stimulated adjustments to the changing economic and political environment leading to a renewed regional development trajectory. The analysis is based on a conceptualization that assesses diachronic processes of rupture and re‐bundling by applying a bottom‐up perspective of how corporate adjustments and restructuring processes generate re‐bundling types that manifest themselves in broader regional re‐bundling scenarios. The empirical analysis focuses on a qualitative case study of Bitterfeld‐Wolfen, the eastern region with the largest chemical industry. The research provides evidence that, although new firm formation has remained weak and acquisitions of chemical multinationals have generated structures only tenuously embedded in the regional economy, modernization and re‐bundling process have contributed to a renewed, smaller yet stable, regional chemical industry. The analysis further shows that the associated processes depended on the roles of individual industrial leaders in the region, who acted as network builders, mobilized joint action and stimulated the development of a collective regional spirit.     

Intercultural Discourse Ethics: Testing Trompenaars' and Hampden-Turner's Conclusions about Americans and the French

Are culture driven ethical conflicts apparent in the discourse of the protagonists? A multi-year, multi-cultural study of managers by Trompenaars and Hampden-Turner resulted in two conclusions relevant to business ethics. The first is that intercultural business conflicts can often be traced to a finite set of cultural differences. The second is that enough similarities exist between cultures to provide the grounds for conflict resolution. The research reported here gives credence to their study when applied to an ethical conflict viewed from French and American perspectives.