An empirical comparison of bankruptcy models

Four types of bankruptcy prediction models based on financial statement ratios, cash flows, stock returns, and return standard deviations are compared. Based on a sample of bankruptcies from 1980 to 1991, results indicate that no existing model of bankruptcy adequately captures the data. During the last fiscal year preceding bankruptcy, none of the individual models may be excluded without a loss in explanatory power. If considered in isolation, the cash flow model discriminates most consistently two to three years before bankruptcy. By comparison, the ratio model is the best single model during the year immediately preceding bankruptcy. Quasi-jack-knifing procedures suggest that none of the models can reliably predict bankruptcy more than two years in advance.     

Steindl's Contribution to the Theory of Industry Concentration

Over a period of some fifty years from the early 1940s until his death in 1993, Josef Steindl developed and expounded a theory of industry concentration. His analysis deals explicitly with differences in costs and demand among firms producing similar products. These differences lead to differences in firm growth, so that his analysis is dynamic. Thus, it provides a constructive alternative to the emphasis in the neoclassical mainstream on static equilibrium with identical firms. In the present paper, Steindl's analysis is subjected to a critical appraisal. Shortcomings of the analysis are noted, its links with other approaches to the theory of industry concentration are identified and directions for further development are indicated.     

Liquidity Constraints and Investment in Transition Economies

We use Bulgarian firm-level data to investigate the impact of liquidity constraints on investment performance. Internal funds are an important determinant of investment in most industrialized countries. We test whether internal funds are important for firm investment during the current transition process in Bulgaria. We use a simple accelerator model of investment to test whether liquidity constraints are relevant in the case of Bulgaria. Our estimations are based on data for the period 1993–95, prior to the Bulgarian financial crisis in 1996–97. It turns out that Bulgarian firms are liquidity constrained, and that firms' size and financial structure help to distinguish between firms that are more and less liquidity constrained. In our view, liquidity constraints can be given a different interpretation in the case of transition economies as compared to Western economies. A more in depth analysis of the data reveals that liquidity constraints, and consequently the access to external funds for Bulgarian firm investment, are to be seen against the background of soft-budget constraints and the failure of the financial system to enforce an efficient allocation of funds. In our view, the lack of liquidity constraints may actually be seen as a sign of financial weakness in the case of Bulgaria.     

Valuing and hedging fixed rate mortgage commitments

A fixed rate loan commitment that is binding on the lender but not on the loan applicant is equivalent to a put option. This article uses the Black-Scholes option pricing model to establish a value for fixed rate loan commitments and to derive the hedge ratio for the lending institution to hedge the interest rate risk associated with the commitments in the FHLMC forward market for mortgages. The effectiveness of the resulting hedge is tested in a simulation, where it is found that the result is a 71% reduction in the variance of the value of the lender's gain or loss associated with the commitment period.