Credit Constraints,Technology Choice and Exports: A Firm‐level Study for Latin American Countries

In this paper, constraints on technology choice and credit access are introduced into a firm‐level trade model in a dynamic setting in order to explain factors that limit benefits to a firm from trade liberalization. Theoretical analysis shows that firms face credit constraints depending on their initial productivity and the cost of credit. As a result, credit‐constrained firms may not be able to cross the minimum productivity threshold needed to enter and compete in a foreign market. Empirical analysis using firm‐level panel data for six Latin American countries confirms that financial constraints negatively influence firms' export and investment decisions.     

Demand regimes and income distribution reconsidered in an open economy portfolio balance framework

A large body of neo-Kaleckian literature has debated the distributional determinants of demand and growth. One general conclusion has been that open economy considerations weaken the potential for a wage-led growth regime. However, this literature has largely ignored asset portfolio considerations and the stock and flow interactions that result from the feedback from savings to wealth and from wealth to the current account. This study develops a theoretical framework that specifies a fuller system of (instantaneous) flow equilibria embedded in a medium-run framework with stable steady-state stocks of real and financial assets. The balance-of-payments constraint that results ensures that simply raising the wage does not yield a higher stock of real capital. A lower markup may increase the steady-state stock of capital but only through the relative price channel. These results are much stronger than those derived in the existing literature, and more important, emerge regardless of whether the demand regime is wage-led or profit-led in the absence of international trade.     

An Experimental Analysis of Face to Face versus Computer Mediated Communication Channels

Experimental research on Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) has generally focused on democratic groups whose members typically share the same objectives. In organizations, however, there are many situations where groups have a leader who has the power to override the group's recommendation, the objective of the leader may not be the same as the objective of each member, and not everyone may have the same information. This paper reports the results of an experiment in which the groups, having a designated leader, worked on a mixed-motive task. Within this context, we analyze group decision outcomes and processes for groups that use a face-to-face channel of cormnunication and those that utilize computer mediated communication. We compare performance of the leader and members with respect to an objective measure of performance, the efficient frontier. The results indicate that for this task groups using face-to-face channel outperform groups using computer mediated communication.     

Macroeconomic Factors and the Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances

This paper investigates the predictability of the volatilities of large versus small firms. Using AR-GARCH models we show that there is symmetry in the ability of firms of different market values to predict conditional variances. Specifically, we show that volatility surprises of small (large) firms are important in predicting the conditional variance of large (small) firms. These results are different than those previously reported which indicate that there is an asymmetry in the predictability of the volatilities of large versus small firms. This predictive ability is still present when the equation of conditional variance includes state variables such as the default premium, dividend yield and the term premium. Finally, our results indicate that the pattern of symmetric predictability is present in both pre- and post-war sample periods.     

Greenfield Investments or Acquisitions: Impacts of Institutional Distance on Establishment Mode Choice of Multinational Enterprises in Emerging Economies

ABSTRACT

The authors analyze the impacts of formal and informal institutional distance on establishment mode choice of multinational enterprises (MNEs) using a sample of 343 foreign direct investments (FDIs) made in selected emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America by the Finnish MNEs. This study contributes to conceptualization and operationalization of institutional distance as well as its application in international business studies. The empirical analysis revealed that high informal institutional distance results in preference of greenfield investments by the Finnish MNEs as the authors hypothesized. However, the authors also found that high formal institutional distance results in preference of acquisitions, which is opposite the study hypothesis as well as the findings of previous studies addressing similar issues.     

Correcting for biases when estimating production functions: an illusion of the laws of algebra?

This paper shows that the endogeneity bias that allegedly appearswhen estimating production functions using value data, and whichthe literature has tried to deal with since the 1940s, is simplythe result of omitted-variable bias due to a poor approximationto an accounting identity. This problem has no econometric solution.As a result, recent attempts to solve the problem by developingnew estimators are questioned. The only possible way to estimatethe technological parameters of the production function is touse physical quantities.     

ICT-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom

This paper analyses the impact of rapid technological change in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector on economic growth in the United Kingdom. We find that technological progress specific to the ICT sector accounts for around 20–30% of long-run labor productivity growth. We demonstrate that a permanent increase in the growth rate of ICT-specific technological progress will increase the investment expenditure share of GDP but lower the aggregate depreciation rate, while an increase in the return to investment in ICT will increase both the expenditure share and the depreciation rate.     

Bank consolidation and new business formation

As the trend of bank consolidation activities continues to grow in the US and globally, the debate on the impact of such consolidation on small business credits and activities are still inconclusive. Building on the existing research [Berger, A.N., Saunders, A., Scalise, J.M., Udell, G.F., 1998. The effects of bank mergers and acquisitions on small business lending. Journal of Financial Economics 50, 187–229]; [Black, S.E., Strahan, P.E., 2002. Entrepreneurship and bank credit availability. Journal of Finance LVII (6), 2807–2833], this paper investigates the effects of the actual intensity of bank consolidation on the formation of new businesses in the US local markets. Evidence portrays that in the short-run, the overall intensity of bank consolidation is negatively related to the rate of new business formation, and this negative relationship is primarily driven by consolidations initiated by large acquirers. On the contrary, consolidations between small-to-medium sized banks show a positive impact on new business development and these results are consistent even when the M&As are distinguished with respect to in-market or out-of-market acquirers initiating the deals. However, two years after the consolidations, the evidence reveals a positive and significant impact on the rate of new business formation in the local markets for consolidations initiated by large in-market acquirers.     

Stock returns,inflation and interest rates in the United Kingdom

The Fisherian theory of interest asserts that a fully perceived change in inflation would be reflected in nominal interest rates and stock returns in the same direction in the long run. This paper examines the Fisherian hypothesis of asset returns using alternative techniques of linear regression, and vector error correction models to examine the nature of the relationship between stock returns and inflation in the UK. Consistent with the Fisherian hypothesis, empirical evidence in the linear regression model suggests a positive and statistically significant relationship between stock returns and inflation, which regards common stock as a good hedge against inflation. The results based on the unit root and cointegration tests indicate a long-run reliable relationship between price levels, share prices, and interest rates which could be interpreted as the long-run determinants of stock returns. The findings also suggest a bidirectional relationship between stock returns and inflation. The evidence of a significant Fisher effect is robust across model specifications.