The response of fertility to the expectations of death: implications for the demographic transition

The authors present an economic explanation for the first stage of events often experienced by a society entering the demographic transition, namely, declining death rates coupled with high or rising birth rates. The explanation is based on the response of fertility to the expectation of child death and on a distinction between actual and desired family size     

Spectral analysis as a tool for model discrimination: An application to international capital movements

Empirical discrimination between ‘stock’ and ‘flow’ formulations of international investment based on regression tests has consistently proved unsuccessful. By applying the new technique of model discrimination in the frequency domain, this note provides unequivocal empirical support for the stock model.     

Explaining the Younger– Older Worker Union Density Gap: Evidence from New Zealand

This paper uses two recent large‐scale surveys in New Zealand to test the various reasons given for lower rates of union membership among younger workers. Younger workers’ disproportionate location in smaller workplaces and those industries where union reach is lowest accounts for a substantial part of their lower union density. Along with the tendency of younger workers to explore their options through labour turnover, this factor offers a much better explanation for the younger‐older worker union density gap than do assertions about a growth in individualism in Generations X and Y.     

Measuring efficiency with a linear economic model

This paper modifies and interprets Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) using a linear economic model. This approach is similar to the cone input/output and assurance region approaches to DEA, but it is implemented so that the multipliers are measured in the same units across all linear optimization problems. This approach allows one to interpret alternatives as profit maximizing organizations and the DEA multipliers as prices that are comparable across the alternatives. This is a useful extension of the assurance region concept, but more important, is that our approach enhances communication with decision-makers. The improved communication is illustrated by applying the model to the siting of a long-term health care facility. This application is interesting because the multiplier bounds make practical sense, and because the problem has dimensions that sometimes lead to interpretation problems with the traditional DEA model. For example, the site characteristics do not result from coordinated decisions, some sites exhibit zero values for some variables, and the problem has many variables compared with the number of potential sites. Problems with these dimensions have, at times, been deemed unsuitable for DEA, but they are handled without problem by the linear economic model.     

Profitability of the CRISMA System: From World Indices to the Hong Kong Stock Market

Many studies show that the use of technical analysis can generate excess returns. We test the “CRISMA” technical trading rule introduced by [Pruitt and White J. Portfolio Managt. Spring, 1988, 55–58] on global equity indices and common stocks in Hong Kong. Out study shows that no excess returns could be found in indices except those in Asia. This validates the claims that the Asian stock markets are not as efficient as other stock markets and hence can be exploited by technical analysis. How does CRISMA perform on common stocks in Hong Kong? Generally speaking, CRISMA does not fair better than the buy and hold strategy. Further analysis reveals excess returns for stocks with very large turnover. This is consistent with other recent research on CRISMA conducted on US and UK stock markets. We also amend part of the original CRISMA rules to yield better performance: shrinking the moving average window sizes can increase both the number of trade signals and the excess returns. Therefore CRISMA can be made to work with some judicious choice of parameters, depending on the turnover.     

Transforming identities: Accounting professionals and the transition to motherhood

This paper investigates the relationship between the experience of motherhood and employment within the UK accounting profession, by examining the oral history narratives of a small group of accountants who have recently become mothers and returned to work. Drawing from contemporary theories on identity, it considers how individuals make sense of the different social identities of accountant and mother, and to what extent social, institutional and cultural factors shape and restrict the ways in which the self is experienced. It also explores the implications for both the self and the accounting profession of interconnections and juxtapositions between the ostensibly private sphere of the home and the public sphere of employment. It suggests that as the identities of mother and accountant are entwined, they undertake a process of redefinition and transformation of the self.     

RURAL ASSISTANCE LEVELS: THE INFLUENCE OF POLICIES AND WORLD PRICE CHANGES

Two aspects of effective rates of assistance for Australian agricultural industries are examined. The long-term rate, rather than the rate for a single year, is determined and a rationale is sought for the pattern of assistance that emerges. Second, the influence of exogenous factors (as represented by changes in world prices) on assistance rates is examined. Assistance elasticities are calculated for the major agricultural commodities and estimates made of the likely change in the pattern of assistance rates from any general world price change. In addition, commodities with assistance rates potentially very different from existing rates are identified. Price transmission elasticities are also derived to indicate the degree of insulation that the various policies provide for each commodity.     

Discrete spatial choice and the axiom of independence from irrelevant alternatives

The assumption of the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) simplifies the representation of the choice decision. However, this assumption is particularly problematic for choices in a spatial context. Unequal substitutability can lead to systematically misleading results. Formal tests of IIA are outlined and alternatives are suggested for managing the problem when the results warrant it. Such management often leads to more complex models, which are necessary, but generate additional difficulties. These issues are also discussed.