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51.
Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multi-cultural, and multi-lingual context. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that these have important repercussions on market behaviour. Explaining the differences in forecast accuracy, we provide evidence that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. 相似文献
52.
Central banks are often considered to be better informed about the present or future state of the economy than the government. A conservative central bank has an incentive to exploit this asymmetry by strategically managing its information policy. Strategic news management will keep the government uncertain about the state of the economy and increase the central bank's leeway for conducting a conservative monetary policy. We show that withholding information from the government is an equilibrium. However, there are also well-defined limits to strategic information policy as the central bank has to distort monetary policy to be in line with its news management. A simple extension of our findings is that, if the government on occasion learns about the bank's true information, it will then overrule the central bank's decision on monetary policy. 相似文献
53.
This article contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analysing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bayesian and other estimation techniques. We find that money contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) incorporating money perform better than their cashless counterparts. But there are also indications that the contribution of money has its limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models, and it worsens forecasting accuracy of partial equilibrium models. Finally, nonmonetary models dominate monetary models in an all-out horserace. 相似文献
54.
We demonstrate how one can measure overall quality in texts gathered from interviews by means of PERTEX text analytic method. We compare text analytic measures and content for locally active Scandinavian small business managers and globally operating Indian IT managers when recapitulating the reasons behind company growth. Using Ward’s clustering method (J Am Stat Assoc 58:236–244, 1963) on a binary matrix for connections between textual components, we suggest using the ESS value from clustering to calculate AFFI as an overall measure of quality. By further splitting the AFFI into three sub-components we are also able to display the degree of fragmentation, focus and integration in the text. We show how AFFI measures differ between managers with a causation or effectuation orientation irrespective of their role as small business manager or as an established global manager. Hence, we posit that effectuation and causation orientations may be generic characteristic of managers in general. 相似文献
55.
Helge F. R. Nuhn Sven Heidenreich 《International Journal of Human Resource Management》2013,24(15):2284-2302
AbstractHigh turnover can cause serious problems in organizations. Yet, previous research confirmed that HRM practices are useful to influence the development of turnover intentions. Existing studies have revealed a variety of factors that drive individuals to leave permanent organizations (POs) but almost no research has considered turnover in temporary organizations (TOs). Yet, TOs, such as project teams, have become increasingly prevalent and exhibit several characteristics that are distinct from POs. Hence, the antecedents of turnover intentions in TOs may also differ from those in POs. However, empirical evidence for this proposition is still lacking. In order to address this research gap, this study examines task-related antecedents of turnover intentions in temporary organizations (TITO) using a sample of 253 employees working in project teams. The results show that inter-role conflict is the most influential antecedent of TITO. Unlike suggested by extant literature, members of TOs seem to be willing to accept down-cuts in job autonomy and meaningfulness of their work, without developing turnover intentions while working for TOs. Furthermore, the results confirmed a direct relationship between TITO and turnover intentions from the permanent organization (TIPO). Members of TOs that want to, but cannot leave their project team seem to develop TIPO. 相似文献
56.
Kai Helge Becker Axel Haunschild 《International Journal of Human Resource Management》2013,24(5):713-727
Research on careers has recently discovered the growing relevance of inter-organizational, boundaryless careers. The new paradigm of career studies that goes hand in hand with the concept of boundaryless careers, though, has not yet paid very much attention to the impact of new career patterns on how organizations function. To fill this gap, the paper analyses the effects of boundaryless careers on organizational decision making. Drawing on Niklas Luhmann's theory of social systems, we elaborate how observing a (potential) employee's life in terms of career generally facilitates organizational decision making by what we call the evaluative capacity of career. Further, the paper shows in what respect employing this mode of observation is rendered more difficult by the emergence of boundaryless careers. Based on the theoretical framework developed, we finally deduce and apply a scheme of classification of possible reactions to the organizational problems caused by boundaryless careers. In sum, the paper provides a new theoretical approach to analysing different ways of how organizations can cope with the challenges of new career patterns. 相似文献
57.
In this paper we analyze how the traditional life and pension contracts with a guaranteed rate of return can be optimized to increase customers’ welfare. Given that the contracts have to be priced correctly, we use individuals’ preferences to find the preferred design. Assuming CRRA utility, we cannot explain the existence of any form of guarantees. Through numerical solutions we quantify the difference (measured in certainty equivalents) to the preferred Merton solution of direct investments in a fixed proportion of risky and risk free assets. The largest welfare loss seems to come from the fact that guarantees are effective by the end of each year, not only by the expiry of the contract. However, the demand for products with guarantees may be explained through behavioral models. We use cumulative prospect theory as an example, showing that the optimal design is a simple contract with a life-time guarantee and no default option. 相似文献
58.
Workplace bullying is increasingly recognized as an important area of debate, particularly among researchers adopting a psychological perspective of work. This paper examines definitions of workplace bullying and explores less orthodox approaches within a British context. It focuses primarily on managers as perpetrators, and comments on the ‘bullying organization’, the relevance of human resource management and of gender. Context, the workplace balance of power, workers’ collective resistance and trade unions are then emphasized as significant factors and the potential for developing a contextualized, politicized and interdisciplinary approach to workplace bullying is suggested. Links with mobilization theory are explored, and the issue is also examined within the UK public sector environment. 相似文献
59.
Helge E. Grundmann 《Intereconomics》1978,13(9-10):242-245
Of what benefit cooperation with developing countries is in actual fact to the industrialized countries is a question which is receiving increasing attention in the discussions on development policy. In the present economic situation special interest attaches in this context of course to the repercussions of public development aid services on the export activities of enterprises in the donor countries. The following article is based on the findings of a study into “Job procurement through development aid credits and exports to developing countries“ (Arbeitsplatzsicherung durch Entwicklungshilfekredite und Exporte in Entwicklungsländer, Basle 1978) which was undertaken by the author together with Christel Bergmann on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation. 相似文献
60.
This paper analyzes the possible consequences of diverging economic developments within the euro area, given the current decision-making
process of the European Central Bank (ECB). For the German Bundesbank, the role model of the ECB, there is evidence that differences
in the economic situation in the various states affected voting behavior in the Governing Council. For the euro area countries,
the paper finds that, despite convergence, important differences in terms of economic performance and preferences remain.
As all national central banks have one vote within the Governing Council of the ECB, there is a risk that national considerations
may prevail over EMU-wide considerations. 相似文献