Timing Product Replacements under Uncertainty—The Importance of Material–Price Fluctuations for the Success of Products That Are Based on New Materials

Being first to market with new products is one of the most enduring pieces of strategic advice handed to managers. This view also emphasizes the importance of launching new products that are based on new materials as soon as possible. However, when the input costs of products that embody new materials are uncertain because of volatile material prices, the advantage of being an early mover comes along with the risk of paying unexpectedly high material prices. Real‐option theory suggests delaying material substitution under uncertainty even if the new material enables superior product performance. Firms who have created the flexibility to switch between alternative inputs can benefit from responding to opportunities or threats that arise from changes in the environment. The current study formalizes this logic in a switching‐option model and tests it on a sample of material substitution projects from the manufacturing sector. Our findings shed light on how input‐cost fluctuations influence the timing–performance relationship and bring into question the common advice to launch new products as soon as possible. Instead, our results suggest that firms who align the timing of market launch to trends and fluctuations of material prices improve their competitive positions. These insights suggest novel ways for new product development (NPD) managers how to successfully use external information at the back‐end of the NPD process and how to compete in an era defined by volatile material prices and technological change.     

The crisis of Japanese retailing at the turn of the millennium: a crisis of corporate governance and finance

The year 2000 saw a sudden rise in failures of prominent Japanese retailers. With problems of corporate finance and governance being pointed out as early as the 1970s, the recent problems as well as the continuous rise of companies up to then have to be explained. This article contends that a major explanatory factor is the weakening of the existing stable relationships between retailers and financial institutions. Banks functioned as lenders, shareholders and providers of management resources. Changes in the banking sector led to changes in the relationship at the end of the 1990s. Problems in corporate governance surfaced that might result in a major reorganization of the Japanese retail scene.     

Noncognitive skills in economics: Models,measurement, and empirical evidence

There is an increasing economic literature considering personality traits as a source of individual differences in labor market productivity and other outcomes. This paper provides an overview on the role of these skills with a particular focus on measurement and estimation. Based on the relevant literature from different disciplines, common psychometric measures used to assess personality are discussed and critical assumptions for their applications are highlighted. Moreover, we report and describe ideas of recent research that aims at incorporating personality traits into economic models of decision making. Based on these foundations, the main results of the empirical literature regarding noncognitive skills are summarized. Finally, we provide a brief guide to econometric analysis with consideration of common econometric pitfalls that evolve in empirical analysis of personality traits and review possible solutions.     

Forecasting liquidity-adjusted intraday Value-at-Risk with vine copulas

We propose to model the joint distribution of bid-ask spreads and log returns of a stock portfolio by using Autoregressive Conditional Double Poisson and GARCH processes for the marginals and vine copulas for the dependence structure. By estimating the joint multivariate distribution of both returns and bid-ask spreads from intraday data, we incorporate the measurement of commonalities in liquidity and comovements of stocks and bid-ask spreads into the forecasting of three types of liquidity-adjusted intraday Value-at-Risk (L-IVaR). In a preliminary analysis, we document strong extreme comovements in liquidity and strong tail dependence between bid-ask spreads and log returns across the firms in our sample thus motivating our use of a vine copula model. Furthermore, the backtesting results for the L-IVaR of a portfolio consisting of five stocks listed on the NASDAQ show that the proposed models perform well in forecasting liquidity-adjusted intraday portfolio profits and losses.     

Growth in Africa: does the source of investment financing matter?

This paper examines empirical evidence for 11 sub-Saharan African countries on the relationship between economic growth and three principal sources of investment funds: foreign aid, foreign direct investment, and domestic saving. In light of the shortcomings of traditional cross-section analyses, the time series approach is used instead. Modern time series methods are rigorously applied, beginning with unit root tests and followed by model specifications that reflect the revealed temporal behaviours of the variables in each of the 11 countries. Domestic saving seems to play a somewhat more important role in generating economic growth than foreign direct investment or foreign aid. However, the mixture of results across the 11 countries implies that, in general, it is not possible to rank one source of investment financing ahead of any other.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

In Memoriam

Rotterdam, April 1874.