Real call options to enlarge foreign subsidiaries – The moderating effect of irreversibility on the influence of economic volatility and political instability on subsequent FDI

This paper develops a real option model to explain the decision of enlarging a new foreign subsidiary by subsequent investment. The model is tested on a panel of 1148 subsidiaries in 22 host countries. The findings complement the traditional process model of firm internationalization. Rather than abiding by an incremental pattern of investment, internationalizing firms seem to keep foreign investment strategies flexible and build up their subsidiaries contingent upon the interaction of economic volatility and irreversibility of investment. However, the moderating effect of irreversibility on the relationship between uncertainty and investment may not hold for downside risks such as political instability.     

Direct evidence of risk aversion as a source of advantageous selection in health insurance

Using the self-stated degree of risk aversion regarding health from the GSOEP we find some evidence for risk aversion being a source of advantageous selection. Risk averse men more often procure supplementary insurance for hospital visits despite needing the additional coverage less.     

OPTIMAL INTERNATIONAL DEBT AND ENDOGENOUS TIME PREFERENCE IN A DEMOGRAPHICALLY DIVIDED WORLD (*)

The international transmission of shocks in population growth and technology is examined in an interdependent two-country world economy; decisions concerning the intertemporal allocation are made by social planners with an infinite horizon and an endogenous rate of time preference. Steady state shocks in population growth are shown to be negatively transmitted to the rate of time preference. In the steady state, the optimal foreign debt is determinate and it brings about a convergence of time preference. The net creditor and debtor positions in the steady state depend on the discount rate functions, the states of technology and the rates of population growth.     

A Model of Spillovers Through Labor Recruitment

This paper develops a model where spillovers can be generated through domestic firm recruitment of employees at a multinational corporation (MNC) where more advanced technologies are employed. It is shown that both spillover and no-spilover equilibria are possible in the model, depending on the marginal costs and benefits of recruitment. Spillover benefits depend on demand parameters and the technological capabilities of the domestic firm, and spillover costs are determined by the MNC's internal wage. Compared with the no-spillover equilibrium, spillovers lead to fewer technology transfers by the MNC and higher market prices. [031, F23]     

Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: a suggestion with an application to Austrian data

The information contained in a large panel dataset is used to date historical turning points and to forecast future ones. We estimate groups of series with similar time series dynamics and link the groups with a dynamic structure. The dynamic structure identifies a group of leading and a group of coincident series. Robust results across data vintages are obtained when series‐specific information is incorporated in the design of the prior group probability distribution. The forecast evaluation confirms that the Markov switching panel with dynamic structure performs well when compared to other specifications. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toward Transparency: New Approaches and Their Application to Financial Markets

The Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s not only highlightedthe welfare consequences of transparency in the financial sectorbut also linked this relatively narrow problem to the broadercontext of transparency in governance. It has been observedthat objections to transparency, often on flimsy pretexts, arecommon even in industrialized countries. This article arguesthat transparency is indispensable to the financial sector anddescribes its desirable characteristics: access, timeliness,relevance, and quality. The authors emphasize the need to weighthe costs and benefits of a more transparent regulatory policy,and they explore the connection between information imperfections,macroeconomic policy, and questions of risk. The article arguesfor developing institutional infrastructure, standards, andaccounting practices that promote transparency, implementingincentives for disclosure and establishing regulations to minimizethe perverse incentives generated by safety net arrangements,such as deposit insurance. Because institutional developmentis gradual, the authors contend that relatively simple regulations,such as limits on credit expansion, may be the most reasonableoption for developing countries. They show that transparencyhas absolute limits because of the lack of adequate enforcementand argue that adequate enforcement may be predicated on broaderreforms in the public sector.      

Is the Dutch consumer a true ricardian?

Summary In this paper the intertemporal optimization approach is adopted in order to estimate an empirical version of Blanchard's (1985) overlapping generations model. The observed sluggishness in consumption is incorporated into the model by recognizing both durability and habit formation as relevant determinants of total consumption. The model is estimated using quarterly data for The Netherlands from 1969:I to 1990:IV. The empirical estimates suggest that the status of the Dutch consumer as a true Ricardian is unambiguously rejected. The results furthermore suggest that this rejection is due to the existence of both liquidity constraints and finite planning horizons.Comments by Peter Broer, Jeroen Kremers, Debora Molenaar, Rick van der Ploeg, Frans Spinnewyn, Casper de Vries, Ed Westerhout and two anonymous referees are very much appreciated. Elbert Dijkgraaf has provided invaluable research assistance. We also thank participants of the OCFEB workshop and the CES seminar at the K.U. Leuven for their comments.     

DOES GNP EXAGGERATE GROWTH IN “ACTUAL” OUTPUT? THE CASE OF THE UNITED STATES

Measures of national product can be misleading because there is nonmarket production. There are also distortions due to transactional activities, which are expenditures to support transactions, not actual output consumed. For 1950–89, this study recalculates output for the United States, adjusting for transactional activities and nonmarket production. Due to relatively rapid growth in transactional activities, GNP overstates output growth in the 1950s; because there was slow expansion of transactional activities in the early 1970s, GNP understates actual output. Since 1974, increases in transactional activities and shifts to market production lead GNP to exaggerate improvement of "actual" output per capita.     

Competition to international satellite communications services

Rapid construction of transoceanic fiber optic cables and the successful establishment of private satellite companies with inter-regional or global coverage have fundamentally altered the environment in which international telecommunications capacity is provided. This article presents industry data and discusses market developments which document substantial competition that has emerged in international facilities-based telecommunications. Intelsat, historically the largest provider of international telecommunications capacity, has seen its market position decline rapidly for all services and all major geographic market areas worldwide.