Ecosystem Service Value and Agricultural Conversion in the Amazon: Implications for Policy Intervention

We explore the welfare implications of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian Amazon by comparing spatially explicit estimates of soybean rents and the value of ecosystem services. Although these estimates are generated from different datasets, models, and estimation techniques, the values are comparable, such that the value of ecosystem services is greater than soybean rents for about 61% of the total area and 24% of the area where soybean rents are positive if protected areas are well enforced. Based on the balance between the benefits and costs of conversion, failure to value ecosystem services reduces total social welfare by 7.13 billion dollars annually relative to an optimum. Policy instruments that internalize the value of ecosystem services via protected lands, land conversion taxes, conservation subsidies, or excise taxes can avoid much of this loss. Regardless of intervention regime, policy makers should be cognizant of the diminishing net benefits of converting natural ecosystems to agriculture. Realizing the final 3.8% requires the conversion of an additional 15% natural ecosystems to soybean production.     

Katastrophenanleihen als Risikotransfer-Instrument für Industrieunternehmen

All over the world an increase in natural catastrophes and resulting damages can be observed for entire economies as well as for individual industrial enterprises. This trend leads to extraordinary expensive traditional natural catastrophe insurance or even a lack of insurance capacities. Due to the increased threat resulting from natural catastrophes and the inefficiencies of traditional insurance solutions, it will be analyzed in the following whether catastrophe bonds (cat bonds), as an alternative risk transfer instrument, should play a role in the risk management portfolio of industrial companies. It will be discussed whether catastrophe bonds are possible risk transfer instruments for industrial companies and whether certain basic prerequisites for a confirmation of the suitability are recognizable. In a further step, the design possibilities for cat bonds will be presented and the most suitable design alternatives for industrial companies as issuers of cat bonds will be elaborated. In addition, a critical comparison between the usage of traditional insurance solutions and cat bonds by industrial companies in order to protect themselves against natural catastrophes will be conducted. The result is a first orientation and a general guideline for dealing with catastrophe bonds as part of the operational risk management for industrial companies.     

Foreign aid preferences and perceptions in donor countries

We present original survey data on preferences for foreign aid in 24 donor countries from 2005 to 2008. On publicly-funded foreign aid (Official Development Assistance, or ODA), we find patterns that are consistent with a standard model of democratic policy formation, in which donations are treated as a pure public good. Controlling for perceptions of current ODA, we show that individual preferences for ODA are (i) negatively correlated with relative income within a country-year; and (ii) positively correlated with inequality at the country level. We extend the analysis to explain variation in the gap between desired aid and actual ODA, arguing that lobbying by high-income special interest groups can divert resources away from the median voter’s preferred level of aid. Consistent with this, we observe that ODA is significantly lower where policymakers are more susceptible to lobbying. Finally, we present a novel test of competing “crowding out” hypotheses. Self-reported private aid donations are negatively correlated with actual ODA, and positively correlated with perceived ODA. This finding is consistent with an emerging argument in the literature, whereby ODA crowds out private aid by enabling charities to forego fundraising activities and crowds in private aid through a signaling channel.     

Revisiting the sectoral Linder hypothesis: Aggregation bias or fixed costs?

This paper reassesses and revisits the Sectoral Linder Hypothesis due to Hallak, which posits that similar tastes for quality lead to more intensive trade between similar countries at the sectoral level. First, the measure of demand similarity used in this paper is based on the distribution of income estimated from household surveys. The paper finds that a similarity measure based on the income distribution produces stronger results than the traditionally used measure based on GDP per capita. Moreover, the country/product level extensive margin is taken into account. This is important because similarity is likely to affect the fixed costs of trade and the fixed costs of alternative means of servicing a market (i.e., licensing and FDI). Fixed costs, in turn, affect the number and average productivity of firms that engage in bilateral trade and hence the overall volume of trade. This paper employs the method by Helpman et al. to control for the extensive margin. Heteroskedasticity is addressed using a feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) approach. The findings show that once controlling for the effect of similarity on the extensive margin, the Linder hypothesis holds at more aggregate levels. Other robustness checks suggest that results are not confined to products that are vertically differentiated.     

Does GDP Distort Mexico's Economic Performance?

Between 1961 and 1980, Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita grew nearly 3.50% annually. During the 1980s, however, it shrank about 0.50% per year. GDP figures suggest that there was sustained economic growth for the 1960s and 1970s, changing suddenly to contraction in the 1980s. This impression may be misleading. GDP does not account for housework or informal production outside households. Further, GDP also may be distorted by transactional activities, which are expenditures to support transactions, not actual output consumed. This study recalculates output for Mexico for the 1961-1990 sample period, controlling for transactional activities and nonmarket production. We find that GDP misstates Mexico's “actual” economic growth. In the 1960s, the economy expanded more quickly than GDP suggests. But in the 1970s, growth was less than half that of the 1960s. The economy indeed slumped in the 1980s, but not as terribly as the official figures indicate. Mexico's economy did not collapse suddenly in the early 1980s; actual economic growth had slowed dramatically during the 1970s.     

Experiments in supply chain management research: A systematic review and future directions

The supply chain management discipline has seen a tremendous growth in the use of experimental methods. Given the large number of published studies, the time seems opportune to systematically review the use of such approaches. In this note, we consider multiple dimensions of experimental design used in articles published in six of our premier journals. We present these findings and contemplate opportunities for future applications of experimental methods. In particular, we highlight a need to more regularly conduct and report on the results of power analyses and experimental checks, more carefully contemplate the justification and use of WEIRD (Western, educated, industrial, rich, and democratic) participants, develop and test mediated theoretical models, and increase our focus on teams as the unit of analysis when using experimental methods.     

Regression analysis on serial dilution data from virus validation robustness studies

To ensure the safety of plasma-derived medicinal products, the Dutch Blood Supply Foundation (Sanquin) performs virus validation experiments. Data from these experiments are based on serial dilution assays. Regression analysis on assay data faces several problems: only a small number of data points are available, data contain censoring and are subject to sampling error. Furthermore, the process variability inherent to the experiments is not evident. In this paper we address these problems by introducing a regression model for serial dilution data and by analyzing how validation experiments and simulation techniques can help elucidate various sources of variability the experiments are subject to. These are then incorporated into the regression model.     

Stromspeicher für die „Energiewende“ – eine akteursbasierte Analyse der zusätzlichen Speicherkosten

Political targets for implementing the German “energy turnaround” aiming at the ambitious extension of renewable energies to generate electricity. However, a majority of the renewable supply is provided by intermittent sources, e.g. wind and solar power. For balancing the increasing supply fluctuations additional storage options are claimed beside of an enforced grid infrastructure and a more flexible demand side. Despite of the political guidelines the economics of additional flexibility measures has to be considered. For this paper we analyse the costs of large scale stationary battery storages to be operated in wholesale markets and transmission grid level. By deriving a key figure based on a life-cycle cost approach, we are able to evaluate the additional costs of electricity of selected battery technologies (lead-acid, lithium ion, sodium sulphur, redox-flow). Moreover, current and valid parameters of the cost analysis are received by scientific and industrial stakeholders of battery systems via online survey and face-to-face interviews. According to the stakeholder estimation a nationwide operation of stationary battery storages will be established at wholesale and transmission grid level until the year 2030. The life-cycle cost analysis, which also includes estimated future cost reductions, shows that lead-acid batteries remain the cost-efficient technology, assuming about 100 storage cycles p.a. In addition, a sensitivity analysis reveals the impact of increasing annual storage cycles as well as the achievable cost reduction by economies-of-scales of the power unit of the storage system.     

Who bribes in public contracting and why: worldwide evidence from firms

We study procurement bribery utilizing survey data from 11,000 enterprises in 125 countries. About one-third of managers report that firms like theirs bribe to secure a public contract, paying about 8 % of the contract value. Econometric estimations suggest that national governance factors, such as democratic accountability, press freedom, and rule of law, are associated with lower bribery. Larger and foreign-owned firms are less likely to bribe than smaller domestic ones. But among bribers, foreign and domestic firms pay similar amounts. Multinational firms appear sensitive to reputational risks in their home countries, but partially adapt to their host country environments.