Why has unemployment risen in the New South Africa?1

We document the rise in unemployment in South Africa since the transition in 1994. We describe how changes in labour supply interacted with stagnant labour demand to produce unemployment rates that peaked between 2001 and 2003. Meanwhile, compositional changes in employment at the sectoral level widened the gap between the skill‐level of the employed and the unemployed. Using nationally representative panel data, we show that stable unemployment rates mask high individual‐level transition rates in labour market status. Our analysis highlights several key constraints to addressing unemployment in South Africa. We conclude that unemployment is near equilibrium levels and is unlikely to self‐correct without policy intervention.     

Local Care Services: A Reflection on the Conditions for their Emergence and Development

Local care services are making a comeback in the headlines (with the Borloo plan, CAE report). The development of this market (or markets) and the policies linked with them nonetheless give rise to problems. This article seeks to identify the levers on which current policy can rely to become effective and emphasises the shortcomings that need to be resolved to ensure impetus. It attempts to specify certain macrosociological and macroeconomic conditions, and analyse the conditions specific to demand and the constraints in building efficient supply that may explain the failures of the policies implemented so far.     

Food crisis and export taxation: the cost of non-cooperative trade policies

This paper aims to assess the rationales for export taxes in the context of a food crisis. First, we summarize the effects of export taxes using both partial and general equilibrium theoretical models. When large countries aim to maintain constant domestic food prices, in the event of an increase in world agricultural prices, the optimal response is to decrease import tariffs in net food-importing countries and to increase export tariffs in net food-exporting countries. The latter decision improves national welfare, while the former reduces national welfare: this is the price that must be paid to keep domestic food prices constant. Small net food-importing countries are harmed by both decisions, while small net food-exporting countries gain from both. Second, we illustrate the costs of a lack of regulation and cooperation surrounding such policies in a time of crisis using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, mimicking the mechanisms that appeared during the recent food price surge (2006–2008). This model illustrates the interdependence of trade policies, as well as how a process of retaliation and counter-retaliation (increased export taxes in large net food-exporting countries and reduced import tariffs in large net food-importing countries) can contribute to successive augmentations of world agricultural prices and harm small net food-importing countries. We conclude with a call for international regulation, in particular because small net food-importing countries may be substantially harmed by those policies that amplify the already negative impact of a food crisis.     

Quousque Tandem?

Zwolle, October 1911     

A Markovian cross-impact model

The author describes a cross-impact method which is based on Markov-chain theory. This allows scenarios to be derived which explicitly include the time dimension. An example of the use of the method is included which deals with the installation of nuclear reactors for energy production.     

Applying knowledge management to project marketing in a demanding technology transfer project: Convincing the industrial customer over the knowledge gap

Literature in project and knowledge management has examined knowledge management in projects, but the utilization of knowledge management in project marketing is still largely unexplored. This study examines the links between knowledge management and project marketing activities in a project where the seller wants to convince the potential buyer about a demanding investment project. An in-depth case study illustrates this in a situation hampered by a technical knowledge gap between the parties. The buyer is committed when they can trust the seller's capability to successfully accomplish the project. The seller must criticize and communicate its core and project specific knowledge of technologies and customer needs through project marketing. A framework and implications on knowledge management and project marketing activities in different project phases is presented. It is proposed that knowledge management is a pertinent tool for project marketing as it helps to understand the roles of different knowledge types.     

Competitive dynamics,strategic consistency,and organizational survival

This study investigates strategic consistency in competitive behavior. We construct a logically consistent evolutionary model, providing a causal argument to link a level of strategic consistency to long‐term organizational survival. According to our results, strategic consistency seems to be related to both organizational survival and the most efficient change over time concerning the key elements of a firm's strategy. One of the benefits of the model is that some of the components and processes may be manipulated through experimental or simulation interventions. This means that the model can be formally tested in future studies and managers can use it to fine‐tune patterns of competitive behavior. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relating the environmental impact of consumption to household expenditures: An input-output analysis

In this paper we evaluate the relationships between household expenditures and the environmental impact categories climate change, acidification, eutrophication and smog formation, by combining household expenditures with environmentally extended input-output analysis. Expenditure elasticities are examined with regression analysis, and are compared and interpreted on the basis of insight at the product level. With data from the Netherlands in the year 2000, we find that environmental impact increases with increasing household expenditures, although the degree to which the environmental impact increases differs per impact category. Climate change and eutrophication increase less than proportionally with increasing expenditures. Acidification increases nearly proportionally with increasing expenditures, whereas smog formation increases more than proportionally. It appears that the mix of necessities and luxuries to which an environmental impact is related is essential in explaining the relationship.     

Legal and Institutional Determinants of Factoring in SMEs: Empirical Analysis across 25 European Countries

Weak protection of the rights of financiers intensifies agency problems in SME financing, inhibiting the optimal provision of credit necessary to grow and innovate. We use a survey data set of 4,348 SMEs from 25 European countries to analyze whether the use of factoring as a form of SME financing is less dependent on low quality of laws and institutions. We do so analyzing whether the use of factoring by SMEs differs across countries due to differences in the legal protection of creditors. Our findings indicate that firms operating in countries with legal environments that weakly protect the rights of creditors, with political instability or high enforcement costs, are more likely to use factoring. Managers of riskier and opaque companies operating in such inefficient environments can use the results of this study to better understand that there are suitable options to complement bank financing. Managers who seek loans can use the results to diversify their financing structure through the use of factoring. Since factoring can be used as a complement to bank loans or as a substitute for bank financing, it is important that policy makers take our results into account when revising policies concerning access to external financing.     

Medication adherence and discontinuation of long-acting injectable versus oral antipsychotics in patients with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder

Aims: To examine medication adherence and discontinuation in two separate groups of patients with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder (BD), who began receiving a long-acting injectable antipsychotic (LAI) versus those who changed to a different oral antipsychotic monotherapy.

Materials and methods: The Truven Health Analytics MarketScan Multi-State Medicaid claims database was used to identify patients with schizophrenia; Truven Health Analytics MarketScan Commercial and Medicaid claims databases were used to identify patients with BD. The analyses included adult patients (≥18 years) who either began receiving an LAI (no prior LAI therapy) or changed to a different oral antipsychotic (monotherapy). The first day of initiating an LAI or changing to a new oral antipsychotic was the index date. Linear and Cox regression models were conducted to estimate medication adherence (proportion of days covered [PDC]) and time to medication discontinuation (continuous medication gap ≥60 days), respectively. Models adjusted for patient demographic and clinical characteristics, baseline medication use, and baseline ED or hospitalizations.

Results: Patients with schizophrenia (N?=?5638) who began receiving LAIs had better medication adherence (5% higher adjusted mean adherence) during the 1 year post-index period and were 20% less likely to discontinue their medication during the entire follow-up period than patients who changed to a different oral antipsychotic monotherapy, adjusting for differences between LAI users and oral users. Similarly, patients with BD (N?=?11,344) who began receiving LAIs also had 5% better medication adherence and were 19% less likely to discontinue their medication than those using oral antipsychotics.

Limitations: Clinical differences unmeasurable in this database may have been responsible for the choice of LAI versus oral antipsychotics, and these differences may be responsible for some of the adherence advantages observed.

Conclusions: This real-world study suggests that patients with schizophrenia or BD who began receiving LAIs had better medication adherence and lower discontinuation risk than those who changed to a different oral antipsychotic monotherapy.