The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and the Volatility of Exchange Rates after the Asian Crisis: A Counterfactual Analysis

The objective of this paper is to carry out a counterfactual analysis of the impact of alternative exchange rate regimes on the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and the bilateral rate against the US dollar for nine East Asian countries after the Asian financial crisis. Our hypothetical regimes include a unilateral basket peg (UBP), a common basket peg (CBP) and a hard peg against the dollar. We find that a UBP would minimise effective exchange rate volatility for all countries and provides the highest regime gains compared to actual. Although the gains for a CBP are always less than those for a UBP, the absolute differences between the two regimes appear to be small. In terms of the bilateral relationship against the dollar, the gains from a UBP or CBP could be quite significant for the non‐dollar peggers since a fall in effective instability would be accompanied by a fall in bilateral instability.     

Akira Takayama: A Memoir

When Akira Takayama passed away this winter, the economics profession lost one of its most productive and most passionate members. This memoir catalogues Professor Takayama's publications and offers some insight into his contributions and personality from a few of his colleagues.     

On FDH efficiency analysis: Some methodological issues and applications to retail banking,courts, and urban transit

The methodology of free disposal hull (FDH) measure of productive efficiency is defined and put in perspectivevis-à-vis other nonparametric techniques, in terms of the postulates on which they respectively rest. Computational issues are also considered, in relation to the linear programming techniques used in DEA. The first application bears on a comparison between a private and a public bank, in terms of the relative efficiency of their branches. Important characteristics of the data are revealed by FDH that are not by DEA, due to a better data fit. Next, efficiency estimates of judicial activities are used to evaluate what part of the existing backlog could be reduced by efficiency increases. Finally, with monthly data of an urban transit firm over 12 years, the FDH methodology is extended to a sequential treatment of time series, that supplements efficiency estimation with a measure of technical progress.     

Adjustment in General Equilibrium: Some Industrial Evidence

The link between output changes and factor-mix adjustments in general equilibrium is examined for each of nine industries using pooled data from 12 developed countries over the years 1970–85. Specifications of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem and the specific-factors model of production are built on the assumptions and structure of theory with each industry isolated in turn. In their simplest version with only capital and labor input, these competitive general-equilibrium models explain a good deal of the observed variations in industrial factor mixes. The specific-factors model performs better.     

Differences of Opinion of Public Information and Speculative Trading in Stocks and Options

We analyze the effects of differences of opinion on the dynamicsof trading volume in stocks and options. We find that disagreementsabout the mean of the current- and next-period public informationlead to trading in stocks in the current period but have noeffect on options trading. Without options, we find that disagreementsabout the precision of all past and current public informationaffect trading in stocks in the current period. With options,only disagreements about the precisions of the next- and current-periodinformation affect stocks and options trading in the currentperiod. Our results suggest that options trading is concentratedaround information events that are likely to cause disagreementsamong investors, whereas trading in stocks may be diffusiveover many periods.