Common Stock Returns and Rating Changes: A Methodological Comparison

This paper examines the adjustments in a firm's common stock price during the eleven months before and during the month of announcement of a bond rating change. Based on several different measures of abnormal security return, the findings are consistent with the proposition that bond downgradings convey information to common stockholders. For bond upgradings, the price adjustments were statistically insignificant in the month of announcement, although in the eleven preceding months, upgraded firms exhibited positive abnormal returns. While the results do not fully support earlier research, we stress that the main contribution of this article lies in the scrutiny it gives to issues of methodology in assessing the possible price effects of bond reclassifications.     

Displacement of labour by imports of manufactures

Concern over domestic employment seems to be the main reason for the recent increase in protection in developed countries. This paper tries to establish the extent to which imports actually affect domestic employment. A partial equilibrium model is developed and then estimated for Sweden. Negative employment effects are found to be rather small.     

The long-run consequences of minimum wage regulation in a monetary economy

This paper investigates the long-run implications of minimum wage regulation on the growth process with monetary repercussions. The paper shows, among other results, that if the minimum wage floor (MWF) is sufficiently low, then the qualitative behavior of the dynamic path is similar to the case of full employment in which the steady state is a saddle point, and that if the MWF is sufficiently high, the economy decays all the way toward the origin.     

Probability of idea acceptance in a technologically oriented social structure

An investigation is made of the probability of acceptance of unusually good research ideas communicated upward in a four-tier research hierarchy on the assumption that these ideas follow a Poisson distribution and a Markov random walk. Methods of improving the probability of acceptance of unusually good ideas are discussed.     

Tracing VARDI coefficients: a proposal

ABSTRACT

We propose a new approach for tracing the so-called ‘value-added-(re)distribution-important coefficients’ (in short the VARDI coefficients) in a world input–output model. From the perspective of a selected group of economies, VARDI coefficients may be defined as those elements in world input–output matrix in the case of which a small change in their levels leads to the maximization of a share of this group of economies in value added in global value chains. Due to the rapid development of the World Input Output Database, this approach may be easily applied in empirical research to different groups of countries and sectors in world IO models. In an illustrative empirical case study, we use the new approach in order to answer a question regarding what the main directions of the future macroeconomic policy of the U.S. could be in order to ensure the maximization of the country’s share in global value added.     

YOLO: Mortality Beliefs and Household Finance Puzzles

We study the effect of subjective mortality beliefs on life‐cycle behavior. With new survey evidence, we document that survival is underestimated (overestimated) by the young (old). We calibrate a canonical life‐cycle model to elicited beliefs. Relative to calibrations using actuarial probabilities, the young undersave by 26%, and retirees draw down their assets 27% slower, while the model's fit to consumption data improves by 88%. Cross‐sectional regressions support the model's predictions: Distorted mortality beliefs correlate with savings behavior while controlling for risk preferences, cognitive, and socioeconomic factors. Overweighting the likelihood of rare events contributes to mortality belief distortions.