Design limits and dynamic policy analysis

This paper characterizes the frequency domain properties of feedback control rules in linear systems in order to better understand how different policies affect outcomes frequency by frequency. We are especially concerned in understanding how reductions of variance at some frequencies induce increases in variance at others. Tradeoffs of this type are known in the control literature as design limits. Design limits are important in understanding the full range of effects of macroeconomic stabilization policies. We extend existing results to account for discrete time bivariate systems with rational expectations. Application is made to the evaluation of monetary policy rules.     

Nationality,social network and psychological well-being: expatriates in China

Expatriate social networks constitute an under-emphasized area in expatriate literature. The current study contributes to the expatriate adjustment literature by empirically testing the relationship between expatriate personal networks and psychological well-being. The current study also investigates the hypothesis that expatriates from different cultural backgrounds will establish different social networks and adjust differently in China. A survey of 166 expatriates in China from North America, Europe and other countries in Asia showed significant support for the hypothesis that expatriate network characteristics have a direct and significant influence on expatriate psychological well-being. In addition, as predicted, expatriates in China from different cultural backgrounds (Overseas Chinese, other Asian, North American and European) established personal networks with different characteristics.     

An application of nonparametric volatility estimators to option pricing

We discuss the impact of volatility estimates from high frequency data on derivative pricing. The principal purpose is to estimate the diffusion coefficient of an Itô process using a nonparametric Nadaraya–Watson kernel approach based on selective estimators of spot volatility proposed in the econometric literature, which are based on high frequency data. The accuracy of different spot volatility estimates is measured in terms of how accurately they can reproduce market option prices. To this aim, we fit a diffusion model to S&P 500 data, and successively, we use the calibrated model to price European call options written on the S&P 500 index. The estimation results are compared to well-known parametric alternatives available in the literature. Empirical results not only show that using intra-day data rather than daily provides better volatility estimates and hence smaller pricing errors, but also highlight that the choice of the spot volatility estimator has effective impact on pricing.     

The presence of an error term does not preclude causal inference in regression: a comment on Krause (2012)

A recent article by Krause (Qual Quant, doi:10.1007/s11135-012-9712-5, Krause (2012)) maintains that: (1) it is untenable to characterize the error term in multiple regression as simply an extraneous random influence on the outcome variable, because any amount of error implies the possibility of one or more omitted, relevant explanatory variables; and (2) the only way to guarantee the prevention of omitted variable bias and thereby justify causal interpretations of estimated coefficients is to construct fully specified models that completely eliminate the error term. The present commentary argues that such an extreme position is impractical and unnecessary, given the availability of specialized techniques for dealing with the primary statistical consequence of omitted variables, namely endogeneity, or the existence of correlations between included explanatory variables and the error term. In particular, the current article discusses the method of instrumental variable estimation, which can resolve the endogeneity problem in causal models where one or more relevant explanatory variables are excluded, thus allowing for accurate estimation of effects. An overview of recent methodological resources and software for conducting instrumental variables estimation is provided, with the aim of helping to place this crucial technique squarely in the statistical toolkit of applied researchers.     

Perceptions of Affirmative Action Based on Socioeconomic Status: A Comparison with Traditional Affirmative Action

Past research has examined reactions to traditional, gender- and ethnicity-based affirmative action programs. However, research has not examined reactions to affirmative action based on socioeconomic status (SES), even though such programs are promoted by the U.S. government (e.g., Work Opportunity Tax Credit) and thus act as a de facto supplement to traditional affirmative action. Based in theories of self-interest, Study 1 compared reactions of men and women to a traditional affirmative action program and a hypothetical, SES-based affirmative action program in terms of general perceptions of such programs and organizational attractiveness. While women had more positive reactions to traditional affirmative action, men had more positive reactions to SES-based affirmative action. Study 2 took a different approach, examining the reactions of potential job applicants to four hypothetical job ads which included different types of diversity statements. We found that job ads that mentioned any type of specific diversity statement - either based on race and gender or based on SES - were perceived as less fair than job ads that did not include specific diversity statements. Results of the studies are discussed in terms of self-interest theories of affirmative action and considerations of SES-based programs as a supplement to traditional affirmative action.     

The Eisner Puzzle,the Unemployment Threshold and the Range of Equilibria

Using a two-regime model of the inflation-unemployment process for US data 1960:2 to 2000:2, this paper finds strong evidence to support the Eisner puzzle, which occurs when the short-run Phillips curve (SRPC) is flatter at low rates of unemployment than at higher rates. The puzzling aspect of this pattern is the expectation of excess demand to become apparent at very low rates of unemployment causing the SRPC to be steep rather than fairly flat. We show the puzzle can be resolved by estimating a three-regime model which reveals a steep SRPC at very low rates of unemployment. The estimates of the three regime model also reveal a horizontal SRPC at intermediate rates of unemployment, implying the existence of a range of equilibrium rates of unemployment at those intermediate rates.

Fiscal consolidation with high growth: A policy simulation model for India

In this paper a fiscal consolidation program for India has been presented based on a policy simulation model that enables us to examine the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies, given certain assumptions about other macro policy choices and relevant exogenous factors. The model is then used to estimate the outcomes resulting from a possible strategy of fiscal consolidation in the base case. The exercise shows that it is possible to have fiscal consolidation while at the same time maintaining high GDP growth of around 8% or so. The strategy is to gradually bring down the revenue deficit to zero by 2014–15, while allowing a combined fiscal deficit for centre plus states of about 6% of GDP. This provides the space for substantial government capital expenditure, which translates to a significant public investment program. This in turn leads to high overall investment directly and indirectly, via the crowding in effect on private investment, which drives the high GDP growth. The exercise has also tested the robustness of this strategy under two alternative scenarios of higher and lower advanced country growth compared to the base case.     

CIVIL WAR EXPOSURE AND VIOLENCE

In recent years scholars have begun to focus on the consequences of individuals' exposure to civil war, including its severe health and psychological consequences. Our innovation is to move beyond the survey methodology that is widespread in this literature to analyze the actual behavior of individuals with varying degrees of exposure to civil war in a common institutional setting. We exploit the presence of thousands of international soccer (football) players with different exposures to civil conflict in the European professional leagues, and find a strong relationship between the extent of civil conflict in a player's home country and his propensity to behave violently on the soccer field, as measured by yellow and red cards. This link is robust to region fixed effects, country characteristics (e.g. rule of law, per capita income), player characteristics (e.g. age, field position, quality), outliers, and team fixed effects. Reinforcing our claim that we isolate the effect of civil war exposure rather than simple rule breaking or something else entirely, there is no meaningful correlation between our measure of exposure to civil war and soccer performance measures not closely related to violent conduct. The result is also robust to controlling for civil wars before a player's birth, suggesting that it is not driven by factors from the distant historical past.     

Cycle and Trend in Models of the Range of Equilibria

This paper investigates the potential of models of the range of equilibria to yield a pattern of equilibrium rates of unemployment that is consistent with the observed mix of cycle with no trend in the rate of unemployment. To do this the paper considers a model in which wages are determined by a group of unionised insiders bargaining with an employer. In the model the supply of labour is endogenous. Specifications of the utility function are found which are consistent with the mix of cycle and no trend in the rate of unemployment. Of these it is concluded that loss aversion in the evaluation of wage relativities is a crucial ingredient for models of the range of equilibria.     

Outcomes from use of an evidence-based practice guideline

The aim of evidence-based guidelines is primarily to improve patient outcomes without adding to the existing cost of care because both payers and policymakers want to identify health care costs that do not result in benefit to the patient. The purpose of the reported project was to generate a practice guideline for the treatment of uncomplicated acute cystitis in a female population, to determine the extent to which the guideline would be used by providers and to measure the cost and quality of outcomes from its use. A retrospective chart review was used to gather pre-guideline practice and cost data. Measurements included the type, frequency, and duration of antibiotic therapy and the use of urine cultures and both complications and routine followup visits. The implementation of an outpatient practice guideline resulted in a significant change in antibiotic prescribing and a trend toward a change in ordering cultures and clinic followup. There was also a significant decrease in treatment costs.