基于R/S分析的上海股市有效性实证研究

以上海股票市场为研究对象,以1995年10月24日至2009年3月16日这一时间段的上证综合指数日收盘价对数收益率序列为研究样本,利用R/S分析方法计算出上证指数的Hurst指数,并对上海股市分形特征加以描述。实证结果表明,上证综合指数日收益率序列的Hurst指数为0.619607,明显偏离0.5,说明上海股票市场具有明显的分形特征,投资者可以通过分析股价的历史数据来获得超额利润,因而市场是无效的。最后,分析了上海股市无效的原因,并提出了政策和建议。     

Volatility and Market Risk of Rubber Price in Malaysia: Pre- and Post-Global Financial Crisis

The volatility in rubber price is a significant risk to producers, traders, consumers and others who are involved in the production and marketing of natural rubber. Such being the case, forecasting the rubber price volatility is desired to assist in decision-making in this uncertain situation. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis caused some disruptions and uncertainties in the future supply or demand for natural rubber and thus leading to higher rubber price volatility. Using ARCH-type models, this paper intends to model the dynamics of the price volatility of Standard Malaysia Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in the Malaysian market before and after the Global Financial Crisis. Additionally, Value-at-Risk (VaR) approach is implemented to evaluate the market risk of SMR 20. Our empirical result denotes the existence of volatility clustering and long memory volatility in the SMR 20 market for both crisis periods. Leverage effect is also detected in the SMR 20 market where negative innovations (bad news) have a larger impact on the volatility than positive innovations (good news) for post-crisis period. When tested with Superior Predictive Ability (SPA) test, FIGARCH model is the best model across five loss functions for short- and long-term forecasts for pre-crisis period. Meanwhile, over post-crisis period, FIGARCH and GJR GARCH indicate the superior out-of-sample-forecast results and better forecasting accuracy over short- and long-term horizons, respectively. In terms of market risk, the short trading position encounters higher risk or greater losses than the long trading position at both 1 and 5 % VaR quantile for pre-crisis period. In contrast, over post-crisis period, long traders of rubber SMR 20 tend to face limited gains but unlimited losses.

     

创造亚洲人自己的美感

在台湾，有一位创投界的人士通过朋友找到我，希望我为他做造型设计。因为他的工作比较专业，接触的客户以日本为主，他希望做出来的发型既能够衬托他的专业，又使他看起来很沉稳。我觉得这是一个误区，一个人的专业程度是靠自身的言行举止表现出来，而不是用发型去体现，发型完全可以是时尚、活跃的。他接受了我的建议，发型做出来以后非常满意。     

Empirical tests of the float-adjusted return model

This paper implements empirical tests of the recently proposed float-adjusted return model by using Chinese stock-market data. The results show that variation in free float can explain cross-sectional variation in asset returns by about 6.7% annually, after we control for market risk, size, and book-to-market equity. In addition, we also find that size and book-to-market equity help explain cross-sectional variations in returns even after controlling for free float.     

Ethical statements as smokescreens for sectional interests: The case of the UK accountancy profession

The UK accountancy industry has traded upon its professional status as a means of expanding and legitimating its activities. Extensive appeals are made to ethical codes and disciplinary arrangements as part of its claim to professional status. This study examines some recent events relating to audit failures and alleged unprofessional conduct by accountancy firms and their partners in the UK with a view to assessing the validity of the claims to professional status. It concludes that the rhetoric of the claims is belied by the failure/inability of the professional accountancy bodies to take effective action against the offending firms or their partners.Austin Mitchell After an early career as a university lecturer he became a television journalist and since 1983 has been a Member of Parliament. He was the Labour Party's Trade and Industry spokesman from 1987–1989. He published a number of books and many articles in the press.Anthony Puxty has since 1987 been professor of Accounting and Finance at the University of Strathclyde. He has published some seven books and more than seventy papers and articles.Prem Sikka is a professionally qualified accountant. He is currently a Principal Lecturer at the University of East London. He has published two research monographs and more than seventy five articles.Hugh Willmott is currently a Senior Lecturer in the Manchester School of Management, having worked previously at the University of Aston and the Copenhagen Business School. He has published seven books and contributed numerous articles to leading management, accounting, finance, and social science journals.