Latin American Growth and Exports to China*

ABSTRACT

After 2001, the booming trade between China and Latin American and the Caribbean countries (LAC) has led to concerns about a potential ‘resource curse’ and losses in manufacturing due to rising import competition. Little attention was paid to potential gains to LAC from growing Chinese demand for commodities. I address this issue empirically adopting a difference-in-difference framework and find that China's demand did deliver significantly higher growth rates to LAC exporters over the last decade and a half.     

上市公司关联交易对盈余管理影响的实证研究

本文在对国内外相关理论及研究成果分析的基础上,结合我国上市公司关联交易的现实情况,提出四个假设,采用修正的横截面Jones模型度量上市公司的盈余管理程度,通过实证检验,证实了目前我国上市公司中仍存在关联交易盈余管理行为。实证结果显示,以往占很大比例的关联方商品和劳务购销形式的盈余管理越来越趋于淡化,而关联方资金占用与盈余管理呈显著的正相关,反映出目前我国上市公司利用关联交易进行盈余管理的方式正在发生变化。同时,实证结果表明,资产负债率与盈余管理存在着显著的正相关关系。     

基于可计算一般均衡的货运量预测模型

现有货运量预测模型大多未考虑货运交通成本及与之相关的政策因素的影响,导致许多货运量预测结果与实际值偏差较大,对诱增货运量预测不足.本文回顾了现有货运预测模型,并简要分析其优劣和适用范围,进而提出基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)的货运量预测模型.利用该模型对重庆市的货运量进行预测模拟,并与其它模型进行比较,结果表明本模型具有更好的预测效果.     

控制权、现金流权分离与企业经营风险关系研究

本文从理论上研究了控制权与现金流权分离、控制股东目标函数和企业经营风险之间的内在关系,研究发现在两权分离的情况下,逐利本性会使控制股东谋求控制权私有收益的动机更为强烈,由此带来成本的增加和利润的减少,使得企业经营风险增大.本文采用2007～2011年间中国上市公司面板数据进行了实证检验,证实了现金流权与经营风险负相关,控制权和两权分离度与经营风险正相关.     

Investor legal protection and earnings management: A study of Chinese H-shares and Hong Kong shares

Under the unique “one country, two systems” arrangement, the more stringent investor protection rules in Hong Kong are not enforceable in firms that are incorporated in China but listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange (H-shares). As such, H-shares and other local Hong Kong firms are subject to different investor protection regimes in the same stock market. We find that H-shares are associated with higher earnings management than local Hong Kong firms after controlling for disparity in economic development, types of controlling shareholders and other factors. More importantly, this relationship is weaker after China implemented the Securities Law in 1999. The results are robust after considering the dual-listing status of H-shares and board characteristics. These results provide direct evidence showing the effect of investor legal protection on financial reporting quality.     

Modeling of group-specific mortality in China using a modified Lee–Carter model

The paper assesses sex-age-specific mortality rates of the four groups of people in China, the country, cities, towns, and counties, based on the mortality data from the China Population Statistics Yearbooks (1988–2009) using a newly proposed modified Lee–Carter model. The results show that in general, the expected age-specific mortality rates decrease over the years, and the decreasing speed increased in the past decade. During 2000–2008, the expected mortality rates decreased over the years for females of all ages and groups and males in cities, remained with no changes for males ages 13–36 in the country and towns, but increased for males ages 13–43 in counties. Predictions for 2009 are made based on the 2000–2008 data, and comparisons to the observed rates from an annual survey show that they match each other well except for males ages 13–43 in counties, whose mortality rates reached record highs around 2005, and bounced back to the level of 2000 in 2008 and was reduced a little further in 2009, benefiting from the promulgations and enforcements of some safety regulations by the government on construction and mining sites where most labors are from counties. The predicted age-specific mortality rates from the model are compared to the assumed rates in the China Life Insurance Mortality Table (2000–2003) promulgated by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, and they show a great deal of similarity in terms of changing trends over the ages.     

我国城市化进程中工业污染排放强度的实证研究

利用2002—2009年我国省际面板数据,从规模效应、结构效应和技术效应3个角度对我国工业SO2、废气、废水、粉尘、烟尘的排放强度的影响因素进行回归分析,并对城市化水平对工业污染排放强度的影响进行回归分析。结果表明,我国工业污染排放强度与工业规模效应、城市化水平均呈倒U型曲线关系;规模效应、结构效应和技术效应在不同年份对我国工业污染排放强度下降的影响方向和贡献程度有所不同,但总体来看,技术效应的贡献最大;技术水平提高是城市化促使工业污染排放强度下降的主要原因。     

核心通货膨胀理论综述

本文从定义、度量、评价和应用等角度详细梳理了核心通货膨胀的理论脉络。提炼出了基于持续性通货膨胀、基于普遍性通货膨胀以及基于福利损失三种不同的核心通货膨胀定义,归纳了基于这三种不同定义的核心通货膨胀度量方法和评价方法,分析了为什么货币政策应该盯住核心通货膨胀,介绍了核心通货膨胀在各国中央银行货币政策决策中的应用情况。     

Indicative bidding: An experimental analysis

Indicative bidding is a practice commonly used in sales of complex and very expensive assets. Theoretical analysis shows that efficient entry is not guaranteed under indicative bidding, since there is no equilibrium in which more qualified bidders are more likely to be selected for the final sale. Furthermore, there exist alternative bid procedures that, in theory at least, guarantee 100% efficiency and higher revenue for the seller. We employ experiments to compare actual performance between indicative bidding and one of these alternative procedures. The data shows that indicative bidding performs as well as the alternative procedure in terms of entry efficiency, while having other characteristics that favor it over the alternative procedure. Our results provide an explanation for the widespread use of indicative bidding despite the potential problem identified in the equilibrium analysis.     

军民两用技术双向溢出及其效应评价研究综述

技术溢出、军民两用技术溢出与国民经济增长息息相关。技术溢出效应、军民两用技术双向溢出及其溢出效应是学者关注的焦点。本文对技术溢出理论、技术溢出效应及其测度等方面的研究进行了分析与述评;在此基础上,着重分析了军民两用技术溢出及其溢出效应的研究近况、进展以及未来的研究发展方向。