模型危机还是应用不当造成的危机?——对《高盛风险之海市蜃楼》一文批驳VaR模型之反驳

次贷风波所引起的金融危机不但使国际银行业一度岌岌可危,而且沉重打击了世界经济。作为市场风险管理的核心,Vag模型遭到各方诟病。通过分析《高盛风险之海市蜃楼》一文,本文归纳了对Vag模型的几点认识误区,包括忽略对外部数据准确性的考核与检验,在模型应用上未能对正常市场情况与极端市场情况区别对待等。本文进而论证Vag仍是当前风险管理的首选工具,提出对收益率概率密度分布的选择将是Vag模型进一步发展的核心与关键,强调数据分析,指出量化研究应作为主观判断的前提与基础等观点。     

海南新政策与商业银行的机遇及策略研究

《国务院关于推进海南国际旅游岛建设的若干意见》为海南经济发展提供了强大的推动力,给商业银行传统业务拓展和创新业务探索带来新的契机,也给商业银行区域业务的可持续发展注入新活力。秉承收益与风险并重的原则,积极主动地在海南拓展市场与业务,深谋策略,远虑风险,应是我国商业银行的理性选择。     

统筹城乡发展:理论演进与财税政策

新中国成立以来,非均衡发展的战略使我国形成了以二元户籍制度为核心的城乡分割的二元经济、社会体制。本文对二元经济理论的演进路径进行了梳理,提出我国财税政策要从保障城乡公民基本权利、促进劳动力自由流动、提高农业劳动生产率、加快农村专业化水平与分工等方面支持统筹城乡发展,并对财税体制进行相应变革。     

贷款准备金政策框架下的区域货币政策独立性

美国次贷危机引发这轮全球性金融危机凸显了以美国为核心的金融资本主义模式和以美元为核心国际货币金融体系的制度性缺陷,改革现行以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系势在必行,建立货币区是较为现实的选择。但在现行货币政策框架下,货币区建设不可避免会陷入三元悖论困境。本文提出在贷款准备金政策框架下,货币区能在保证其内在要求的资本自由流动和汇率稳定基本前提下,区内各个成员仍能保持货币政策独立性。     

An Optimal Product Mix for Hedging Longevity Risk in Life Insurance Companies: The Immunization Theory Approach

This article investigates the natural hedging strategy to deal with longevity risks for life insurance companies. We propose an immunization model that incorporates a stochastic mortality dynamic to calculate the optimal life insurance–annuity product mix ratio to hedge against longevity risks. We model the dynamic of the changes in future mortality using the well‐known Lee–Carter model and discuss the model risk issue by comparing the results between the Lee–Carter and Cairns–Blake–Dowd models. On the basis of the mortality experience and insurance products in the United States, we demonstrate that the proposed model can lead to an optimal product mix and effectively reduce longevity risks for life insurance companies.     

Optimal Multiperiod Asset Allocation: Matching Assets to Liabilities in a Discrete Model

Investment and risk control are becoming increasingly important for financial institutions. Asset allocation provides a fundamental investing principle to manage the risk and return trade‐off in financial markets. This article proposes a general formulation of a first approximation of multiperiod asset allocation modeling for institutions that invest to meet the target payment structures of a long‐term liability. By addressing the shortcomings of both single‐period models and the single‐point forecast of the mean variance approach, this article derives explicit formulae for optimal asset allocations, taking into account possible future realizations in a multiperiod discrete time model.     

马拉维干旱指数保险试点经验及其对广西甘蔗保险发展的启示

天气指数保险是农业风险管理的一种新型手段,其作用已被许多国家的实践所证明.本文系统介绍了马拉维干旱指数保险的试点经验,重点分析指数保险方案设计的流程及要点.最后,文章对广西甘蔗指数保险试点可行性进行了探讨,并提出了广西甘蔗指数保险方案设计应重点关注的几个问题.     

市场估值与价值投资策略——基于中国证券市场的经验研究

中国股票市场近年开始重新重视价值投资,但真正能运用价值投资策略进行投资的并不多见。本文研究在我国的证券市场中,价值投资是否适用和有效,通过实证分析的方法,检验价值投资策略在中国证券市场的适应性。本文的结论有助于逐渐改变目前中国证券市场上中小投资者跟风炒作、希望在短期内获得高额回报的投机理念和过度炒作的现象,对于提倡理性投资,抑制过度投机是非常有益的。     

Comparing Firm Failure Predictions Between Logit,KMV, and ZPP Models: Evidence from Taiwan’s Electronics Industry

This paper applies the Taiwan electronics industry data to detect the discriminatory powers of Logit, KMV, and zero-price probability (ZPP) models that represent respectively the regressive fitting model, the option-based pricing model, and the GARCH time series simulation model. In our circumstances, according to cumulative accuracy profile, receiver operating characteristic, and even Brier score, the KMV performs the worst. The disadvantages for KMV are that the equity market exists some nonlinear characteristics, the unknown market value of asset affected by the change of capital structure is not exogenous, and the failure point is difficult to be estimated correctly. Besides, KMV is however too simple to model the fluctuation of the equity value as the GARCH does. On the other hand, the Logit performs above average. To preclude over-fitting and keep model parsimonious, two significant factors are extracted from as many as forty financial variables for the logistic regression on binary failure data. The result of Logit training has perfect discrimination. However, for the post-sample data, the fitting to categorical but not ordinal data makes Logit have the divergent failure predicted probabilities and highest Briser Score. In practical, ZPP GARCHNorm uses just equity value to predict firm failure but it performs remarkably well supposing that downward price trend or volatility persistence in stock price changes is appropriately caught. It implies that the distorted signals such as overreaction of traders and insider trading would definitely impair the ZPP GARCHNorm. Nevertheless, the larger type I error than type II error in all models indicates that the prediction of non-failed firms should be more examined further than that of failed firms.     

Joint estimation of technical efficiency and production risk for multi-output banks under a panel data cost frontier model

This article generalizes production risk from a single output production function to a multiple output cost frontier, which is able to examine input-oriented technical efficiencies and production risk simultaneously in the context of a panel data. Furthermore, the joint confidence interval estimates for technical efficiencies are constructed by means of multiple comparisons with the best approach. Whether taking production risk into account or not offers quite dissimilar implications in terms of the average technical efficiency measure and the identification of multiple efficient banks achieving the optimal cost frontier. It is suggested that inferences drawn on the basis of the confidence intervals of technical efficiency provide much more fruitful and insightful information than the point estimation alone. Bank specific risk parameters are found to be highly and positively correlated with fixed-effect estimates, implying that the more risk-averse a bank is, the more technically efficient it will be.