Economic diversity, development capacity and sustainable development of China

China's economic growth over the past several decades has been among the highest in the world. It has been fueled by cheap fossil fuel energy so energy consumption has risen rapidly, but there are signs that negative feedbacks in the form of waste and inefficiency may affect future development. If energy throughput exceeds the capacity of the environment to process the inevitable waste from production then the development may not be sustainable. We calculate economic diversity using an energy flow network analysis method to explore the relationships of development policy, energy use, efficiency and sustainable development. China and its provinces are presented as a case study and the development status of each province in China is presented. China's development policy does not appear to be sustainable over the period 1985–1998 because of unsustainable energy consumption trends and declining economic diversity. An energy consumption tax is proposed for increasing diversity and dealing with increasing energy consumption in China.     

施工污染及其防治对策

建筑施工工地的噪声、空气、光、水等几个主要方面污染带来的危害,直接 影响了工地周边乃至整个城市人们的生活质量。而工程建设又是长期行为, 涉及范围广阔,若任其污染扩散累加,后果将是严重的。因此,各有关方面 必须高度重视,采取有效措施,将施工污染减少到最低程度,做到合情合理 合法施工。     

脱虚向实背景下银行同业业务发展研究

近年来,我国商业银行同业业务不断创新,规模迅速扩张,在一定程度上缓解实体经济融资需求的同时,也造成了资金“脱实向虚”。本文基于银行同业业务发展的特点和风险,运用TVP VAR模型研究银行同业业务创新如何造成了“脱实向虚”,同业业务对“量”更敏感还是对“价”更敏感,以及如何引导资金“脱虚向实”。研究结论表明：现阶段的商业银行同业业务规避了金融监管,弱化了货币政策调控效果,造成了资金“脱实向虚”。同时同业业务发展提高了利率的敏感性和传导作用,对于同业业务,货币政策价格型调控更为有效;对于实体经济,货币政策数量型调控更为有效。     

Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

通州运河森林公园植物景观季相 风貌研究

：以通州运河森林公园作为研究对象,通过卫星影像 结合现场调查收集数据,并构建采用相应指数进行季相景观风 貌分析,结果表明：1)公园中植物种类共117种,以群落为 主的空间形态分布;2)春季以花景为主,红花景、黄花景、 白花景分别由碧桃、连翘、白蜡主要表征,垂柳表征芽景; 红花景与芽景分散分布,黄、白花景相对聚集分布;3)夏季 以花景为主,红花景、黄花景、白花景分别由木槿、国槐、 红瑞木主要表征,红花景与白花景聚集分布,黄花景相对分 散分布;4)秋季以叶景为主,由栾树主要表征,金银忍冬主 要表征果景,叶景在秋季相对分散分布;果景相对聚集分布; 5)冬季以叶景为主,主要由油松表征叶景,花景相对分散分 布。果景、枝景相对聚集分布;6)基于季相景观可从路径调 整与游线建议两方面优化提升路径系统。     

The heterogeneous dependence between global crude oil and Chinese commodity futures markets: evidence from quantile regression

This paper explores the dependence between global crude oil and Chinese commodity futures markets across different quantiles of the return distributions. Based on weekly data from 11 June 2004 to 7 July 2017, we address this issue by applying a quantile regression method. This technique provides a more detailed investigation of the dependence. Moreover, considering the structural breaks caused by market turmoil or financial crises, we divide the full period of every commodity sector market into sub-periods based on these break dates to further explore the dependence changes. The empirical results indicate that the dependence between global crude oil and Chinese commodity futures markets is different across quantiles in different commodity sectors. The dependence is significantly positive, except in markets with high expected returns. Additionally, the effects caused by structural breaks are distinctly heterogeneous across quantiles. The effect of the same break on the degree of dependence exhibits an increasing tendency as the quantile level increases, which suggests that markets with high expected returns are more susceptible to crises. Finally, we apply a prediction analysis to further verify the heterogeneity of the commodity sectors, which may be the cause of the heterogeneous dependence.     

HOUSING IN A NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL

We present evidence that in the USA, the relative price of housing exhibits secular growth and that its growth rate is a stationary series. The ratio of the value of house stock to either consumption or GDP is also stationary. We develop a two‐sector neoclassical growth model with housing that is consistent with these facts. Among the long‐run determinants of the growth of housing prices and housing stock per capita are factor intensities, rates of technological progress in both the housing and non‐housing sectors, and the excess of population growth over land growth. We also study the model's transitional dynamics.     

成都市环境经济系统的物质流分析

利用物质流分析方法,对2000～2007年成都市环境经济系统中物质输入与输出进行分析,结果表明：（1）在不考虑水的情况下,成都市物质输入与输出总量呈相似的增长趋势,但物质库存量有净增长;固体物质输入量的递增速率大于气体物质输入量的递增速率,物质输出量气体占主体;（2）物质输入与输出强度不断增加,而单位GDP物质输入量与输出量呈快速递减趋势,物质生产力不断上升,表明成都的资源综合利用效率明显提高,区域经济增长和环境压力正在逐步脱钩;（3）水的输入输出量呈上升趋势,但是其强度基本保持不变,用水效率稳步提高。     

大股东隧道行为对中小投资者信心及行为的影响研究——基于问卷调查

本文利用问卷调查的方法,研究了普通中小投资者对大股东隧道行为、投资者保护等问题的认识和理解,以及隧道行为对中小投资者的信心、行为、投资策略等的影响。通过对问卷结果进行统计与分析,发现大股东的隧道行为会造成中小投资者信心缺失,并使投资者做出相应的行为调整,改变他们对市场发展的判断和看法,最终给资本市场带来负面影响。     

重庆市域碳票交易实现路径研究

森林固碳因其投资少、成本低、综合效益好的特点,在应对全球气候变化中越来越受到国际社会的广泛关注,全球对碳交易市场特别是碳汇交易市场的讨论逐步升温。分析了发展低碳经济的国际国内背景,说明了重庆市域的碳汇碳源状况,提出了通过开展"碳票"交易实现重庆市域内"碳冲抵"的设想。