Bankers, Industrialists, and their Cliques: Elite Networks in Mexico and Brazil during Early Industrialization

The historiographies of Mexico and Brazil have implicitly statedthat business networks were crucial for the initial industrializationof these two countries. Recently, differing visions on the importanceof business networks have arisen. In the case of Mexico, theliterature argues that entrepreneurs relied heavily on an informalinstitutional structure to obtain necessary resources and information.In contrast, the recent historiography of Brazil suggests thatafter 1890 the network of corporate relations became less importantfor entrepreneurs trying to obtain capital and concessions,once the institutions promoted financial markets and easy entryfor new businesses. Did entrepreneurs in Brazil and Mexico organizetheir networks differently to deal with the different institutionalsettings? We examine whether in Mexico businessmen relied moreon networks of interlocking boards of directors and other informalarrangements to do business than in Brazil. Our hypothesis isconfirmed by three related results: (1) the total number ofconnections (i.e., the density of the network) was higher inMexico than Brazil; (2) in Mexico, there was one dense corenetwork, while in Brazil we find fairly dispersed clusters ofcorporate board interlocks; and most importantly, (3) politiciansplayed a more important role in the Mexican network of corporatedirectors than their counterparts in Brazil. Interestingly,even though Brazil and Mexico relied on very different institutionalstructures, both countries had similar rates of growth between1890 and 1913. However, the dense and exclusive Mexican networkmight have ended up increasing the social and political tensionsthat led to the Mexican Revolution (1910–1920).     

世界感受中国经济放缓之痛

【美国《华尔街日报》10月21日】中国蓬勃发展的经济正在以快于大多数人所预料的速度冷却,在发达国家遭遇金融危机之际,对于那些希望中国需求有助于保持全球经济平稳增长的人来说,这不啻是当头一棒。     

Have labour practices and human rights disclosures enhanced corporate accountability? The case of the GRI framework

This paper critically evaluates Transnational Corporations’ (TNCs) claimed adherence to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI)’s ‘labour’ and ‘human rights’ reporting guidelines and examines how successful the GRI has been in enhancing comparability and transparency. We found limited evidence of TNCs discharging their accountability to their workforce and, rather, we found evidence to suggest that disclosure was motivated more by enhancing their legitimacy. TNCs failed to adhere to the guidelines, which meant that material information items were often missing, rendering comparability of information meaningless. Instead, TNCs reported large volumes of generic/anecdotal information without acknowledging the impediments they faced in practice.     

Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and disorder

Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT).     

The time‐varying performance of UK analyst recommendation revisions: Do market conditions matter?

This study examines the time‐varying performance of investment strategies following analyst recommendation revisions in the UK stock market, with specific emphasis on the impact of changing market conditions. We find a negative relationship between the recommendation performance and market conditions as measured in terms of past market return and market volatility. In particular, the upgrade (downgrade) portfolio generates significantly positive (negative) net abnormal returns in bad market conditions (e.g., the dot‐com bubble burst in 2000 and the credit crisis in 2007), but not in other periods of time. Moreover, our non‐temporal threshold regression analysis shows that the reported negative relationship disappears when market conditions become better, i.e., when the past market return (market volatility) is higher (lower) than a certain level, indicating the importance of taking non‐linearity into account in the long sample period as examined in this study. Our time‐series bootstrap simulations further confirm that the superior recommendation performance in bad market conditions is not due to random chance; analysts have certain skills in making valuable up/downward revisions in bad markets.     

The new post-industrial state

With the socioeconomic restructuring of the 1970s and 1980s, the idea of a smooth transition to a post-industrial service economy has required significant revision. We outline three such revisions: the ideas of informatization, informalization, and dualism. The first two are reworkings of post-industrial theory so as to emphasize one or other undervalued trend in industrial society, and are in principle quite compatible. The third emphasizes inequalities in power and resources that are plausibly associated with developments seen as benign by the others. Each has distinct implications for democratic development. However, we argue that while elements of all three models are present in current trends, so that the future might be best seen as a compromise between them, in fact all approaches fail to grasp the real significance of socioeconomic and technological restructuring. A more fruitful approach, with distinctive policy implications, is proposed.     

Scale and scope economies of Australian permanent building societies in a dynamic framework

In this paper we examine the interrelationship between technological change, branching, and the multi-product cost structure of Australian Permanent Building Societies within a dynamic specification of the cost function. The results strongly support this dynamic formulation, though the speed of adjustment of costs to long-run levels is quite fast. We also find evidence of economies of scale for small societies, suggesting some potential for smaller societies to benefit from increased scale through mergers.