PROSPECTS FOR SKILLS-BASED EXPORT GROWTH IN A LABOUR-ABUNDANT,RESOURCE-RICH DEVELOPING ECONOMY

In an integrated global economy, specialisation in trade is an increasingly prominent strategy. A labour-abundant, resource-rich economy like Indonesia faces stiff competition in labour-intensive manufactures; meanwhile, rapid growth in demand for resources from China and India exposes it to the ‘curse’ of resource wealth. This diminishes prospects for more diversified growth based on renewable resources like human capital. Using an international panel data set we explore the influence of resource wealth, foreign direct investment and human capital on the share of skill-intensive products in exports. FDI and human capital increase this share; resource wealth diminishes it. We use the results to compare Indonesia with Thailand and Malaysia. Indonesia's reliance on skill-intensive exports would have been greater had it achieved higher levels of FDI and skills. Its performance in accumulating these endowments, and its relative resource abundance, impede diversification in production and trade. We present policy options flowing from these findings.     

Ageing, Optimal National Saving and Future Living Standards in Australia

Making allowance for the ageing structure of the population, this paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving and future living standards for Australia for the period 1999–2050. For this period, the optimal saving response to the ageing of the Australian population is for national saving to increase from its current level by 2.7 per cent of GDP by the year 2017 and then to decline to the year 2050. The implied growth of living standards is 1.20 per cent per year. Reduced immigration would reduce the rate of growth of living standards but reduced fertility would not.     

Colonial tourism in Victoria,Australia, in the 1840s: George Augustus Robinson as a nascent tourist

Using the private journals of George Augustus Robinson as a lens, this paper is concerned with generating insights into the emergence of tourism in colonial Victoria, during what Towner calls its ‘tourism era of discovery’. Robinson was the Chief Protector of Aborigines and is generally regarded as the most travelled man in Victoria in the 1840s. Robinson was reconstructed as a ‘nascent tourist’ whose gaze was mediated by British conventions of the picturesque and panoramic, confirming that new world tourism in Australia in the nineteenth century is rendered in old world paradigms. The role played by private landholders in creating ‘nascent private tourism’ and the nexus between explorers, travellers and tourists were also highlighted. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘An edifying spectacle’: A history of ‘tourist corroborees’ in Victoria,Australia, 1835–1870

Parsons [Parsons, M. (2002). “Ah that I could convey a proper idea of this interesting wild play of the natives” corroborees and the rise of indigenous Australian cultural tourism. Australian Aboriginal Studies, 2(1), 14–27.] has persuasively argued that nineteenth century corroborees performed for non-indigenous audiences may be considered to be Australia's pre-eminent prototypical indigenous cultural tourism product. This paper extends Parsons' [Parsons, M. (1997). The tourist corroboree in South Australia. Aboriginal History, 21(1), 46–69; Parsons, M. (2002). “Ah that I could convey a proper idea of this interesting wild play of the natives” corroborees and the rise of indigenous Australian cultural tourism. Australian Aboriginal Studies, 2(1), 14–27.] analyses of ‘tourist corroborees’ in nineteenth century South Australia to corroborees staged in Victoria during the pastoral period and the gold rushes of the 1850–1870s. It argues that an Aboriginal-grown ‘business acumen’ developed rapidly in the economic climate of the Victorian goldfields. It also provides a historical context to this commodification.     

Towards an empirically based taxonomy of buyer–seller relations in business markets

To develop appropriate theories of business relationship management we need to understand what types of relations exist and the differing types of problems they pose for the firms involved. We report the results of research to develop an empirically based taxonomy of buyer–seller business relations from data that include both buyer and seller firm perspectives. Cluster analysis is used to identify five types of relations based on measures of relationship atmosphere that share similarities and some important differences with previous typologies. A comparison of typologies shows that some obscure and confound relationship types by forcing them into predefined groups, that the same type of relationship atmosphere is compatible with more than one pattern of behavior and that the estimated correlations among relationship variables are sensitive to the mix of relations included in the sample. Future research that can build on this work, the challenges that this kind of research presents and the methodologies to help address them are then discussed.     

The Economics of Ageing—What do you Face?

The economics of ageing is the study of economic decision‐making by individuals and government aimed at fostering well‐being in old age. These decisions include preparing for old age and dealing with the risks of old age. The risks are substantial. Using the life‐cycle model, this article considers the risks for well‐being that people face in retirement and the role of government and private insurance in meeting those risks. The perspective of the life‐cycle model is also used to consider the gender gap in wealth on retirement.     

Cohort versus patient level simulation for the economic evaluation of single versus combination immuno-oncology therapies in metastatic melanoma

Abstract

Background: Model structure, despite being a key source of uncertainty in economic evaluations, is often not treated as a priority for model development. In oncology, partitioned survival models (PSMs) and Markov models, both types of cohort model, are commonly used, but patient responses to newer immuno-oncology (I-O) agents suggest that more innovative model frameworks should be explored.

Objective: A discussion of the theoretical pros and cons of cohort level vs patient level simulation (PLS) models provides the background for an illustrative comparison of I-O therapies, namely nivolumab/ipilimumab combination and ipilimumab alone using patient level data from the CheckMate 067 trial in metastatic melanoma. PSM, Markov, and PLS models were compared on the basis of coherence with short-term clinical trial endpoints and long-term cost per QALY outcomes reported.

Methods: The PSM was based on Kaplan-Meier curves from CheckMate 067 with 3-year data on progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The Markov model used time independent transition probabilities based on the average trajectory of PFS and OS over the trial period. The PLS model was developed based on baseline characteristics hypothesized to be associated with disease as well as significant mortality and disease progression risk factors identified through a proportional hazards model.

Results: The short-term Markov model outputs matched the 1–3?year clinical trial results approximately as well as the PSMs for OS but not PFS. The fixed (average) cohort PLS results corresponded as well as the PSMs for OS in the combination therapy arm and PFS in the monotherapy arm. Over the lifetime horizon, the PLS produced an additional 5.95 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with combination therapy relative to ipilimumab alone, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £6,474 per QALY, compared with £14,194 for the PSMs which gave an incremental benefit of between 2.2 and 2.4 QALYs. The Markov model was an outlier (～ £49,000 per QALY in the base case).

Conclusions: The 4- and 5-state versions of the PSM cohort model estimated in this study deviate from the standard 3-state approach to better capture I-O response patterns. Markov and PLS approaches, by modeling state transitions explicitly, could be more informative in understanding I-O immune response, the PLS particularly so by reflecting heterogeneity in treatment response. However, both require a number of assumptions to capture the immune response effectively. Better I-O representation with surrogate endpoints in future clinical trials could yield greater model validity across all models.     

Trade and Inequality with Limited Labor Mobility: Theory and Evidence from China

Does globalization increase inequality in developing countries, and if so, how? In a theoretical model of a regionally heterogeneous economy, we show how different regional rates of technical progress due to trade and FDI interact with constraints to unskilled labor mobility. As favored regions benefit more from trade, their growing demand for skills drains skilled workers from disadvantaged areas, and average incomes in the former grow faster than in the latter. Moreover, this unbalanced regional growth may also raise inequality within each region. It could even reduce absolute income per capita in the less favored region. We test these predictions with Chinese data from the Open Door era. Results confirm that different regional growth rates have increased both interregional and intraregional inequality. Moreover, growth of skills‐based export industries in coastal regions is associated, other things equal, with lower incomes for the poor in inland provinces.