Scenario and gaming techniques have a number of complementary characteristics. In this article, the design and evaluation of a gaming-scenario experiment for the exploration of development planning in an urban network in the Netherlands is presented. Two gaming sessions were held using two long-term scenarios (2030) as varying contexts. The combined gaming-scenario approach made it possible to evaluate the impact of external future developments and trends on the administrative and spatial development. Evaluation results of the gaming experiment indicate that the gaming-scenario approach generated new and critical insights on development planning and the future of the urban network. Through the game, the principal, the game leaders but most of all the stakeholder-participants experienced and realized that the management of development planning in urban networks is a very difficult task and is full of pitfalls. 相似文献
Economic growth may be developed on the basis on combination of different factors. In this investigation was analyzed the economic growth prediction based on the innovations by field of technology. Gross domestic product (GDP) was used as economic growth indicator. The method of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to the data in order to detect the influential parameters for the GDP prediction. Five inputs are considered: number of granted patents in electrical engineering, number of granted patents as instruments, number of granted patents in chemistry, number of granted patents in mechanical engineering and the number of granted patents in other fields. Results shown that the innovations in electrical engineering has the highest influence on the GDP prediction.
Starting from the dynamic factor model for nonstationary data we derive the factor‐augmented error correction model (FECM) and its moving‐average representation. The latter is used for the identification of structural shocks and their propagation mechanisms. We show how to implement classical identification schemes based on long‐run restrictions in the case of large panels. The importance of the error correction mechanism for impulse response analysis is analyzed by means of both empirical examples and simulation experiments. Our results show that the bias in estimated impulse responses in a factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is positively related to the strength of the error correction mechanism and the cross‐section dimension of the panel. We observe empirically in a large panel of US data that these features have a substantial effect on the responses of several variables to the identified permanent real (productivity) and monetary policy shocks. 相似文献
The institutional context of Russia and the recent regime of foreign trade sanctions makes it a natural laboratory to study change in decision making regarding the international activities of SMEs. This research explores how the increased institutional uncertainty is evaluated, enacted and responded to by SMEs that are heavily involved in relations with international suppliers. This longitudinal multiple-case study reveals that although firms simultaneously use both causation and effectuation in their decision making, an increase of institutional uncertainty boosts effectuation. The study shows that the intensity of both types of decision-making logic varies along the studied period in accordance to changing perceptions of institutional uncertainty. Also, the studied firms use effectuation logic differently enabling us to distinguish two types of effectuation with contrasting performance implications: opportunity-driven effectuation and survival effectuation. 相似文献
This paper investigates the effect of fair value reporting and its attributes on audit fees. We use as our primary sample the European real estate industry around mandatory IFRS adoption (under which reporting of property fair values becomes compulsory), due to its unique operating and reporting characteristics. We document lower audit fees for firms reporting property assets at fair value relative to those employing depreciated cost—a difference that appears driven, in part, by impairment tests that occur only under depreciated cost. We further find that audit fees are decreasing in firms’ exposure to fair value and increasing both in the complexity of the fair value estimation and for recognition (versus only disclosure) of fair values. We corroborate our findings in two alternative settings: contrasting UK and US real estate firms and using UK investment trusts. Overall, the results suggest that fair values can lead to lower monitoring costs; however, any reductions in audit fees will vary with salient characteristics of the fair value reporting, including the difficulty to measure and the treatment within the financial statements. 相似文献
International Journal of Technology and Design Education - Today’s dynamic change of the pupils’ technological environment certainly affects their preferences towards technology, which... 相似文献