Estimating the Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rate for Potential EMU Members

In this study, we attempt to examine the possibility of emergence of significant fluctuations of the exchange rates in the future for the candidate EMU countries. In doing so, we estimate the equilibrium rate of the nominal effective exchange rate for Poland, Hungary, Slovak Republic and Malta through the BEER and PEER approaches. While the PEER-based estimation implies a large misalignment rate for the Hungarian forint, the BEER-based analysis shows that the present exchange rates of the countries considered do not deviate significantly from their equilibrium rates. As a consequence, based on BEER analysis, we do not expect large fluctuations in the effective exchange rates among the currencies considered. Hence, the relevant effective exchange rates are expected to be relatively stable. As a matter of fact, the entry of those countries into EMU is not expected to weaken the stability of Euro.

Labour Market Adjustments to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries

This paper provides some of the first empirical evidence on labour market adjustments to exchange rate movements in Canadian manufacturing industries. Controlling for endogeneity using generalized method of moments estimation, it is found that during the 1981–1997 period, exchange movements have a substantial impact on labour input and that this impact has grown over time as the manufacturing industries have become more exposed to trade. In contrast, the exchange rate effect on real wages is estimated to be virtually zero for all manufacturing industries.

Monetary Policy in Austria–Hungary, 1876–1913: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank’s Discount Rate and the Liquidity Ratio

This paper presents a model to explain the official discount rate of the Central Bank of Austria–Hungary from 1876 to 1913. The discount rate is assumed to depend on the liquidity ratio of the Bank, defined as the ratio of its stock of metals to banknotes issued, and on changes in foreign discount rates. The paper also presents an equation explaining the liquidity ratio. We use “not equally spaced chronologically ordered data” referring to the 50 discount rate changes enacted. The regressions confirm that the liquidity ratio was the main determinant of the discount rate and that Germany (and not Great Britain) played a significant role in determining the Austro–Hungarian discount rate and the liquidity ratios, supporting the view that the classical gold standard was a decentralized multipolar system rather than a system fully dominated by London as suggested by Keynes. The regressions also suggest that, although Austria–Hungary had an inconvertible paper currency (1879–1892) and fluctuating exchange rates (1876–1895) and formally joined the gold standard only in 1902, it “shadowed” the behaviour of gold standard Central Banks with such consistency that the stability of the estimated regressions was relatively unaffected by the frequent institutional changes.

The Costs of Increasing Transparency

In their seminal paper, Morris and Shin (Amer Econ Rev 92(5): 1521–1534, 2002a) argued that increasing the precision of public information is not always beneficial to social welfare. Svensson (Amer Econ Rev 96: 448–451, 2006) however has disputed this by saying that although feasible, the conditions for which this was true, were not all that likely. In that respect, therefore, increasing ‘transparency’ remains most of the times beneficial to social welfare. In this paper, we extend the Morris and Shin attempt by setting it up as an explicit interactive game between the Central Bank, the objectives of which we model explicitly, and the private sector. We show that in the absence of costs, both players benefit from transparency in the manner described previously in the literature, and point the differences in their gains. Following that, we then introduce the fact that increasing transparency comes at some costs and show how both players face incentives to free ride on each other as a result. The presence of costs thus alters the way in which greater transparency is attained.

Dissipation of Knowledge and the Boundaries of the Multinational Enterprise

This paper provides a theoretical formalization of the joint-venture contract, as an alternative to foreign direct investment (FDI), within a Dissipation of Intangible Assets (DIA) framework. In a two-period model, we discuss how the threat of knowledge spillover shapes the boundaries of a multinational enterprise (MNE). Similarly to the theoretical findings on the FDI-licensing trade-off, we show that the integrated solution is more likely to emerge when know-how easily spills over—i.e., when firms are endowed with more intangible assets or they belong to high-tech industries. Probit estimates, from a new firm-level data set, show that Japanese manufacturing operations in Europe are in line with these predictions. JEL no. F23, C25, O5     

The Heavenly Calculus and Socially Responsible Business Conduct: An Explorative Study among Executives

Summary In this paper we present a theoretical economic model, describing the influence of eschatological beliefs of executives on their socially responsible business conduct. The core hypothesis is that the belief that one’s eternal destination depends on how one behaves in business will provide an incentive to socially responsible business conduct. We confront the model with explorative empirical data, collected by in-depth interviews with and questionnaires among twenty Dutch executives. The data provide weak indications that eschatological beliefs influence the executives’ socially responsible business conduct. The authors would like to thank the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and the employers’ association VNO-NCW for their financial support. Thanks also to Boaz van Luijk and Aziza Yahia for their assistance in the collection of data used in this paper. We also thank the editor, professor M.M.G. Fase, and two anonymous referees for their valuable suggestions.     

Location: A Neglected Determinant of Firm Growth

This paper links the performance of new technology firms, measured in terms of employment growth, to geographic location. We introduce a model of firm growth that is specific to characteristics of the location as well as the firm and industry. The model is estimated using a unique data set identifying the growth performance of small technology-based firms in Germany. We find that firm performance, as measured by employment growth, does appear to be influenced by locational characteristics as well as characteristics specific to the firm and the industry. In particular, the empirical evidence suggests that being located in an agglomeration rich in knowledge resources is more conducive to firm growth than being located in a region that is less endowed with knowledge resources. These results suggest the economic value of location as a conduit for accessing external knowledge resources, which in turn, manifests itself in higher rates of growth. JEL no. L10, R11, O12, O30     

Aid Effectiveness,Debt Relief and Public Finance Response: Evidence from a Panel of HIPC Countries

Substantial amounts of debt relief have been granted to a set of low-income countries, as an alternative aid modality. Although the theoretical case for debt relief is firmly established, only empirical analysis can show whether debt relief is indeed a (more) effective mode of aid delivery. We investigate the linkages between debt relief and other fiscal variables such as current expenditure, government investment, taxation and domestic borrowing, in comparison to the effects of grants and concessional loans. We find that the fiscal impact of HIPC debt relief follows fairly complex dynamics. For example, debt relief initially reduces government investment, but the effect becomes positive after two years, well outperforming other modes of aid delivery. JEL no. F34, F35, O11, O19