A Bayesian Bioeconometric Model of Invasive Species Control: The Case of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

In this article we evaluate a US Forest Service plan to mitigate damages from an invasive insect on public, forested land. We develop a dynamic model of infestation and control to explicitly account for biological interactions, baseline conditions, and uncertainty, thus creating a more complete picture of policy impacts than a static cost benefit analysis could provide. We combine the results of the dynamic model with an empirical study of nonmarket forest benefits to create a bioeconomic model of ecosystem management. Estimating the empirical model in a Bayesian framework allows us to treat the economic coefficients of the dynamic model as random variables. We specify distributions for the biological parameters and examine the effects of both biological and economic uncertainty on the predictive distribution of net benefits. We find that the net benefits of the program are positive, and that uncertainty in the biological model contributes substantially more to the variance of our estimate than does uncertainty over the valuation of the resource.     

Neues Lernen in der Pflege

Zusammenfasung  Didaktische Konzepte — Vor vier Jahren trat die neue Ausbildungsordnung für die Berufe der Gesundheits- und Krankenpflege in Kraft. Was hat sich seitdem ge?ndert? Wie haben die nach den neuen Richtlinien ausgebildeten Pflegefachkr?fte ihre Ausbildung erlebt? Wie lernen Auszubildende in der Pflege heute? Herausforderungen und Ergebnisse. Literatur finden Sie unter www.heilberufe-online.de     

Will the Internet Bring Electronic Services to the Home?

Few topics have attracted more hype than the Internet. This article provides a rare long-term perspective. It starts with an account of a century of failed visions and applications: the Internet itself operated in obscurity for two decades. However, in the rest of the article, the author documents why he thinks interactive home services may now at last take off, draws some general lessons from past experience and indicates the next areas for growth.     

Improving the business impact of foresight

Achieving an impact on business decision-makers with foresight does not appear to be an easy task. Therefore, the Macro Trends team at Deutsche Bank Research has formulated some criteria to guide foresight projects. They should aim to produce plausibility, provide convenience and inspiration as well as an appropriate time perspective with regard to the content of foresight results. In addition, a structured way of producing and delivering foresight, a seamless inclusion in organisational procedures, a high level of interaction with decision-makers, ideational entrepreneurship, innovation regarding communication with business people, and persistence and synchronisation with the business organisation are the key criteria for achieving a higher impact from foresight projects. To live up to these criteria, the Macro Trends team has developed a 'trend map' which provides a conceptual aggregation of trends - to provide orientation for decision-makers and stakeholders.     

Ein neuer H?chstsatz der degressiven Abschreibung – ein wirksamer Investitionsanreiz?

Zusammenfassung Mit dem ,,Gesetz zur steuerlichen F?rderung von Wachstum und Besch?ftigung‘‘ wird für bewegliche Wirtschaftsgüter des Anlageverm?gens, die in den Jahren 2006 und 2007 angeschafft werden, der H?chstsatz der degressiven Abschreibung als Buchwertabschreibung wieder auf 30% angehoben. Damit sollen Anreize für verst?rkte Investitionen gesetzt werden. Im Rahmen des Beitrags wird der Zuwachs an Vorteilhaftigkeit, der mit der o.g. ?nderung von x 7 Abs. 2 EStG einhergeht, quantifiziert und die Eignung für den intendierten Zweck beurteilt.

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Summary A modification of the German income tax law (EStG) in 2006 allows an enhanced maximum rate of 30% for the declining balance method of depreciation. It concerns movable assets acquired in 2006 and 2007 only. The modification is intended to provide a fiscal stimulus for investments. This paper quantifies the benefits for investments and asks, whether the increased maximum rate suits the desired purposes.

     

Forecasting inflation in the 1980s

Refined forecasting techniques are rendered practically useless in the face of the current instabilities in the international system—and the repercussions these could have on domestic economies. Currently, there is no convincing forecast of the probable medium-term course of stagflation. Nor is there likely to be while the money markets are faced with the problems of recycling OPEC surpluses and funding the debts of less developed countries. This heavily interdependent and fragile system could easily be shaken by unpredicted shocks. Domestic economies will continue, through their links with it, to be subject to the vagaries of a system beyond their control or forecasting abilities.