Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve for the U.S. and various European countries. In this paper we use data from the European Union (EU15), from 1994:Q1 to 2008:Q3. We use the European Central Bank’s euro area yield spreads to predict European real GDP deviations from the long-run trend. We also augment the models tested with non monetary policy variables: the unemployment and a composite European stock price index. The methodology employed is a probit model of the inverse cumulative distribution function of the standard distribution using several formal forecasting and goodness of fit evaluation tests. The results show that the yield curve augmented with the composite stock index has significant forecasting power in terms of the EU15 real output.     

Heterogeneity of Long‐run Technical Efficiency of German Dairy Farms: A Bayesian Approach*

In parametric efficiency studies, two alternative approaches exist to provide an estimate of the long‐run efficiency of firms: the dynamic stochastic frontier model and the generalised true random‐effects model. We extend the former in order to allow for heterogeneity in the long‐run technical efficiency of firms. This model is based on potential differences in firm‐specific characteristics and in firms’ inefficiency persistence. The model is applied to an unbalanced micro‐panel of German dairy farms over the period 1999 to 2009. Estimation of long‐run technical efficiency and inefficiency persistence is based on an output distance function representation of the production technology and estimated in a Bayesian framework. The results suggest that heterogeneity in long‐run technical efficiency of farms is mostly attributed to discrepancies in farm‐specific factors rather than differences in farms’ inefficiency persistence. Farm size is positively related to long‐run technical efficiency while subsidies exert a negative effect on the long‐run technical efficiency of farms. Inefficiency persistence is found to be very high, but heterogeneity in this persistence is low.     

Relative arbitrage in volatility-stabilized markets

Summary. We provide simple, easy-to-test criteria for the existence of relative arbitrage in equity markets. These criteria postulate essentially that the excess growth rate of the market portfolio, a positive quantity that can be estimated or even computed from a given market structure, be sufficiently large. We show that conditions which satisfy these criteria are manifestly present in the U.S. equity market. We then construct examples of abstract markets in which the criteria hold. These abstract markets allow us to isolate conditions similar to those prevalent in actual markets, and to construct explicit portfolios under these conditions. We study in some detail a specific example of an abstract market which is volatility-stabilized, in that the return from the market portfolio has constant drift and variance rates while the smallest stocks are assigned the largest volatilities. A rather interesting probabilistic structure emerges, in which time changes and the asymptotic theory for planar Brownian motion play crucial roles. The largest stock and the overall market grow at the same, constant rate, though individual stocks fluctuate widely.We are indebted to Adrian Banner and Constantinos Kardaras for several helpful discussions; in particular, the computation of (4.27) is due to Adrian Banner. We are also grateful to Professors Chris Rogers and Marc Yor for their expert advice on the subject of planar Brownian motion, and to Professor Peter Bank for an observation that helped us correct an error in an earlier version of the paper.This revised version was published online in January 2005 with corrections to the Cover date.     

Detecting structural breaks and identifying risk factors in hedge fund returns: A Bayesian approach

Extending previous work on asset-based style factor models, this paper proposes a model that allows for the presence of structural breaks in hedge fund return series. We consider a Bayesian approach to detecting structural breaks occurring at unknown times and identifying relevant risk factors to explain the monthly return variation. Exact and efficient Bayesian inference for the unknown number and positions of the breaks is performed by using filtering recursions similar to those of the forward–backward algorithm. Existing methods of testing for structural breaks are also used for comparison. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in several hedge fund indices; our results are consistent with market events and episodes that caused substantial volatility in hedge fund returns during the last decade.     

Compliance with pension‐related mandatory disclosures and debt financing

Using hand‐collected data on the level of pension‐related mandatory disclosures required by International Accounting Standard 19 Employee Benefits, we test whether compliance levels with these disclosures convey information that affects firms’ access to the public instead of the private debt market, as well as the cost of their new debt issues. We document a higher tendency to access the public debt market for firms with higher levels of pension‐related disclosure. Furthermore, we find that firms with higher levels of pension‐related disclosure enjoy a lower cost in terms of issuance of public debt, but not a lower cost for private debt issues. Thus, the benefits of disclosure in reducing information risk are only realisable when creditors rely heavily on financial statements in their decision making, due to the limited access to private information. Additional tests reveal that high compliance levels effectively mitigate the negative effect of pension deficits on the cost of public debt. These findings provide novel evidence in the extant literature on the role of mandatory (and, in particular, pension‐related) disclosures on firms’ debt financing. They also have important policy implications.     

Bayesian Modelling of Outstanding Liabilities Incorporating Claim Count Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper deals with the prediction of the amount of outstanding automobile claims that an insurance company will pay in the near future. We consider various competing models using Bayesian theory and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Claim counts are used to add a further hierarchical stage in the model with log-normally distributed claim amounts and its corresponding state space version. This way, we incorporate information from both the outstanding claim amounts and counts data resulting in new model formulations. Implementation details and illustrations with real insurance data are provided.     

Measuring and Explaining Technical Efficiency in UK Potato Production

Technical efficiency in UK maincrop potato production is measured through the estimation of a stochastic frontier production function using cross section data for the 1992 crop year. Variations in the technical efficiency index across production units are explained through a number of managerial and farm characteristic variables following Battese and Coelli (1995). The technical efficiency index across production units ranges from 33 to 97 per cent. Irrigation of the potato crop and storage of potatoes after harvest are positively correlated with technical efficiency. Number of years of experience of growing potatoes, small scale farming practice and chitting of seed potatoes are all negatively correlated with technical efficiency.     

THE ECONOMICS OF HEALTH AND SAFETY AT WORK: AN INTERDICIPLINARY REVIEW OF THE THEORY AND POLICY

Abstract This paper engages in an interdisciplinary survey of the current state of knowledge related to the theory, determinants and consequences of occupational safety and health (OSH). It first describes the fundamental theoretical construct of compensating wage differentials, which is used by economists to understand the optimal provision of OSH in a perfectly competitive labour market. The plethora of incentives faced by workers and firms in job and insurance markets that determine the ultimate level of OSH are discussed in detail. The extensive empirical evidence from the hedonic wage and stated choice approaches used to assess the value of OSH is reviewed. The causes of inefficiency and inequity in the market for OSH, such as externalities, moral hazard in compensation insurance, systematic biases in individual risk perception/well‐being and labour market segregation are subsequently examined. The implications of government intervention and regulation for tackling the aforementioned inefficiencies in OSH are then considered. Finally, the survey identifies areas of future research interests and suggests indicators and priorities for policy initiatives that can improve the health and safety of workers in modern job markets.     

How Many Jobs Must We Provide for a Balanced Postwar Economy

This study investigates how unemployment and income influence the length of time an individual remains in good health. This is a complex relationship since unemployment or low income deteriorates health but poor health can become a barrier to obtaining higher income or gaining re-employment. Data are from the British Household Panel Survey, using two measures of physical health: an index of mobility problems and a measure of self-assessed health. The results show that unemployment, low income and poor education adversely affect the time that people remain in good health. These results have important implications for public policy, particularly in an age of austerity when social protection mechanisms are under threat. In fact, the results suggest that to improve health and reduce health inequality, more investment needs to be directed at policies that enhance labour force participation, improve education and reduce income inequality.