Ascending Combinatorial Auctions with Risk Averse Bidders

Ascending combinatorial auctions are being used in an increasing number of spectrum sales worldwide, as well as in other multi-item markets in procurement and logistics. Much research has focused on pricing and payment rules in such ascending auctions. However, recent game-theoretical research has shown that such auctions can even lead to inefficient perfect Bayesian equilibria with risk-neutral bidders. There is a fundamental free-rider problem without a simple solution, raising the question whether ascending combinatorial auctions can be expected to be efficient in the field. Risk aversion is arguably a significant driver of bidding behavior in high-stakes auctions. We analyze the impact of risk aversion on equilibrium bidding strategies and efficiency in a threshold problem with one global and several local bidders. Due to the underlying free-rider problem, the impact of risk-aversion on equilibrium bidding strategies of local bidders is not obvious. We characterize the necessary and sufficient conditions for the perfect Bayesian equilibria of the ascending auction mechanism to have the local bidders to drop at the reserve price. Interestingly, in spite of the free-riding opportunities of local bidders, risk-aversion reduces the scope of the non-bidding equilibrium. The results help explain the high efficiency of ascending combinatorial auctions observed in the lab.     

The formation of forward freight agreement rates in dry bulk shipping: Spot rates,risk premia,and heterogeneous expectations

We examine the formation of forward rates in the dry bulk shipping industry. We illustrate that the bulk of basis volatility can be attributed to expectations about future physical market conditions rather than expectations about future risk premia. However, there exists significant predictability of risk premia by both price-based signals and economic variables. To explain this finding, we develop a dynamic asset pricing framework where, apart from having different objective functions, agents might also differ in the way they form expectations about future market conditions. Accordingly, we argue that the average investor should hold “near-rational” but slightly contrarian beliefs.     

Spatial Spillovers on Input‐specific Inefficiency of Dutch Arable Farms

Traditional benchmarking implicitly assumes that decision making units operate in isolation from their peers. For arable production systems in particular, this assumption is unlikely to hold in reality. This paper quantifies spatial spillovers on input‐specific inefficiency using data envelopment analysis and a second‐stage bootstrap truncated regression model. The bootstrap algorithm is extended to allow for the estimation of the parameter of the spatial weight matrix, which captures the proximity between producers. The empirical application concerns Dutch arable farms for which latitudes and longitudes are available. The average inefficiency across years was 3.87% for productive inputs and 2.98% for damage abatement inputs under variable returns to scale. For productive inputs technical inefficiency, statistically significant spillover effects from neighbours’ age and their degree of specialisation depended on the type of the spatial weight matrix used (inverse distance or k‐nearest neighbours). Statistically significant spillover effects of subsidy payments were adverse while statistically significant spillover effects from insurance payments were beneficial. For damage abatement inputs technical inefficiency, statistically significant adverse effects were found for neighbours’ age and subsidy payments and beneficial effects from neighbours’ insurance payments and their degree of specialisation.     

Contracts,the Spot Market Wage and Unemployment Benefits

This paper presents a model of the labour market with a contract and a spot market sector. Contracts are binding and enforceable, but unemployed contract workers are free to work in the spot market. The contracting wage is shown to be constant across states. A non‐trivial result shows that the spot market wage is increasing with product price. An increase in product price has an ambiguous effect on contract employment. An increase in unemployment benefits increases the contracting sector wage whilst stabilizing the spot market wage, and may have ambiguous effects on unemployment.     

Compliance with pension‐related mandatory disclosures and debt financing

Using hand‐collected data on the level of pension‐related mandatory disclosures required by International Accounting Standard 19 Employee Benefits, we test whether compliance levels with these disclosures convey information that affects firms’ access to the public instead of the private debt market, as well as the cost of their new debt issues. We document a higher tendency to access the public debt market for firms with higher levels of pension‐related disclosure. Furthermore, we find that firms with higher levels of pension‐related disclosure enjoy a lower cost in terms of issuance of public debt, but not a lower cost for private debt issues. Thus, the benefits of disclosure in reducing information risk are only realisable when creditors rely heavily on financial statements in their decision making, due to the limited access to private information. Additional tests reveal that high compliance levels effectively mitigate the negative effect of pension deficits on the cost of public debt. These findings provide novel evidence in the extant literature on the role of mandatory (and, in particular, pension‐related) disclosures on firms’ debt financing. They also have important policy implications.     

A Bayesian approach to detecting nonlinear risk exposures in hedge fund strategies

This paper proposes a model that allows for nonlinear risk exposures of hedge funds to various risk factors. We introduce a flexible threshold regression model and develop a Bayesian approach for model selection and estimation of the thresholds and their unknown number. In particular, we present a computationally flexible Markov chain Monte Carlo stochastic search algorithm which identifies relevant risk factors and/or threshold values. Our analysis of several hedge fund returns reveals that different strategies exhibit nonlinear relations to different risk factors, and that the proposed threshold regression model improves our ability to evaluate hedge fund performance.     

Shell games: On the value of shell companies

A reverse merger allows a private company to assume the current reporting status of another company that is public. This can be done quickly, without fundraising, road show, underwriter, substantial ownership dilution, or great expense. Private firms that go public via reverse merger are often motivated by the need to quickly secure financing through privately placed stock (PIPEs) and the desire to make acquisitions using stock as payment. In each of the last eight years reverse mergers have outnumbered traditional IPOs as a mechanism for going public, and reporting shell companies are providing fuel for much of this growth. We study 585 trading shell companies over the period 2006-2008. The purpose of most of these shell firms is to find a suitor for a reverse merger agreement. These companies have no systematic risk, operations, or assets, and their share price tends to decline over time. Yet, these firms have investors. When a takeover agreement is consummated, shell company three-month abnormal returns are 48.1%. We argue that this exceptional return is compensation to investors for shell stock illiquidity and the uncertainty of finding a reverse merger suitor. We show that shell company returns are much greater at the consummation of a merger than those of a similar entity that in dollar terms is more popular among investors — Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs).     

A model of green bank marketing

In the light of current market conditions, the financial services industry has been reshaped, requiring new marketing knowledge to provide guidelines for successful practice. To that end, corporate social responsibility, green marketing and a green brand image (GBI) have attracted considerable interest in the banking sector, although no framework has yet been established relating these constructs to one another. In this article, the authors present exploratory research as a basis for developing a model of green bank marketing. The model was tested to confirm the dimensions of green bank marketing and investigate its impact on a GBI, thus providing statistical evidence of the relationship between the two variables.