Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS*

Two different approaches intend to resolve the ‘puzzling’ slow convergence to purchasing power parity (PPP) reported in the literature [see Rogoff (1996) , Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 34.] On the one hand, there are models that consider a non‐linear adjustment of real exchange rate to PPP induced by transaction costs. Such costs imply the presence of a certain transaction band where adjustment is too costly to be undertaken. On the other hand, there are models that relax the ‘classical’ PPP assumption of constant equilibrium real exchange rates. A prominent theory put together by Balassa (1964, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 72) and Samuelson (1964 Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 46) , the BS effect, suggests that a non‐constant real exchange rate equilibrium is induced by different productivity growth rates between countries. This paper reconciles those two approaches by considering an exponential smooth transition‐in‐deviation non‐linear adjustment mechanism towards non‐constant equilibrium real exchange rates within the EMS (European Monetary System) and effective rates. The equilibrium is proxied, in a theoretically appealing manner, using deterministic trends and the relative price of non‐tradables to proxy for BS effects. The empirical results provide further support for the hypothesis that real exchange rates are well described by symmetric, nonlinear processes. Furthermore, the half‐life of shocks in such models is found to be dramatically shorter than that obtained in linear models.     

Liquidity, Labels and Medium-Term Notes

We suggest that the medium-term note market provides an excellent laboratory for exploring the relationships between yield, liquidity, and the label affixed to a financial instrument. Crabbe and Turner (1995) examined the liquidity issue and uncovered the counter-intuitive result that issue size is unrelated to liquidity. Their study failed to examine a potential channel for a liquidity effect, however, in the form of multiple issues from a single, typically large, MTN registration filing. We find evidence that file size is significantly related to yield in a number of instances. Several other proxies for liquidity, such as frequency of issue, are also sometimes significantly related to yields. Contrary to Crabbe and Turner (1995) , we find that labeling a security an MTN can have an impact on its yield. The label "note" also appears to matter for yield in some instances.     

Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.     

Trade integration and within-plant productivity evolution in Chile

We analyze the impact of trade integration on plant TFP using Chilean plant-level data (1982–1999) and 3-digit bilateral trade flows. Our contribution is to disentangle the impact of export and import barriers, estimated as border effects within a multilateral context. A fall in export barriers is positively correlated with plant productivity in traded sectors. The reduction of import barriers, however, can only be associated to productivity improvements in export-oriented sectors. In import-competing sectors a robust positive correlation shows up between plant productivity and protection. We then test several channels linking trade integration and firm productivity.     

Relating in business networks: Innovation in practice

Few studies have looked at the innovation process in the early stages of new business ventures in the context of business networks. Reporting on eight years of development of a new venture, we examine how the development of initial business relationships in an ever-changing business network affects technological innovation. We conclude that technological innovation is contingent on the development of business relationships that are a critical mechanism permitting a new venture not only to access but also to produce knowledge essential for innovating. For management this implies the need to strike a judicious balance between internal focus and closure to produce novel solutions and external focus and openness to experiment in business relationships.     

Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process: some implications for purchasing power parity adjustment

Nonlinear models of deviations from PPP have recently provided an important, theoretically well motivated, contribution to the PPP puzzle. Most of these studies use temporally aggregated data to empirically estimate the nonlinear models. As noted by Taylor ( 2001 ), if the true DGP is nonlinear, the temporally aggregated data could exhibit misleading properties regarding the adjustment speeds. We examine the effects of different levels of temporal aggregation on estimates of ESTAR models of real exchange rates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Speculation in the Oil Market

The run‐up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price co‐movement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large dataset using a dynamic factor model. This method is motivated by the fact that a small‐scale vector autoregression is not informationally sufficient to identify the shocks. The main results are as follows. (i) While global demand shocks account for the largest share of oil price fluctuations, speculative shocks are the second most important driver. (ii) The increase in oil prices over the last decade is mainly driven by the strength of global demand. However, speculation played a significant role in the oil price increase between 2004 and 2008 and its subsequent collapse. (iii) The co‐movement between oil prices and the prices of other commodities is mainly explained by global demand shocks. Our results support the view that the recent oil price increase is mainly driven by the strength of global demand but that the financialization process of commodity markets also played a role. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economy as a Social System: Niklas Luhmann's Contribution and its Significance for Economics

Niklas Luhmann's (1927–1998) ambitious research project was aimed not only at describing society as a global social system, but it also analyzed various subsystems (including an economic one). The article assesses Luhmann's vision of the economy, summarized mainly in his Wirtschaft der Gesellschaft, wherein he addresses basic economic notions: the economic system, money, prices, rationality, and the market. I then interpret his ideas in the context of modern discussions in economics (intersubjective structures, complex systems, and evolutionary modeling). I also propose some heuristics implied by Luhmann's economic ontology, which are potentially interesting for methodological and theoretical strategies of modern economics.     

Pricing of the time-change risks

We develop an equilibrium endowment economy with Epstein-Zin recursive utility and a Lévy time-change subordinator, which represents a clock that connects business and calendar time. Our setup provides a tractable equilibrium framework for pricing non-Gaussian jump-like risks induced by the time-change, with closed-form solutions for asset prices. Persistence of the time-change shocks leads to predictability of consumption and dividends and time-variation in asset prices and risk premia in calendar time. In numerical calibrations, we show that the risk compensation for Lévy risks accounts for about one-third of the overall equity premium.     

The determinants of service exports from Central and Eastern Europe

The transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have become important exporters of many types of services to Western Europe. We identify the sources of CEE’s advantages over competing exporters, such as India, China and Brazil, using disaggregated data on service exports and a novel estimation technique for the gravity equation. Our results indicate that the importance of geographical distance varies substantially across types of service exports. Geography is important for exports of construction services, but it has a negligible impact on computer‐related services. However, the relative quality of legal institutions influences trade across a broad range of service categories. The results demonstrate that aggregating services that are not homogeneous could conceal important differences in the effects of geographical distance and other variables on the pattern of service trade.