On the Stationarity of Current Account Deficits in the European Union

In this paper, we test for the stationarity of EU current account deficits. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit‐root panel data testing, namely (i) the identification of which panel members are stationary, and (ii) the presence of cross‐sectional dependence. For this purpose, we employ an AR‐based bootstrap approach to the Hadri (2000 ) test. While there is only mixed evidence that current account stationarity applies when examining individual countries, this does not appear to be the case when considering panels comprising both EU and non‐EU members.     

Comparing three ways to update Choquet beliefs

We analyze three rules for updating neo-additive capacities. Only for Generalized Bayesian Updating is relative optimism the same for both updated and unconditional capacities. For updates of the other two, either the updated capacity is fully optimistic or fully pessimistic.     

An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change

This paper develops a joint econometric–simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric–simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints.     

Invasive species management in a spatially heterogeneous world: Effects of uniform policies

The spread of invasive species (IS) is an inherently spatial process, and management of invasive species occurs over spatially heterogeneous regions, but policy constraints can restrict management responses to be homogeneous across regions. Using a spatial bioeconomic model that includes a representation of invasive species ecology based on heterogeneous environments that are linked across space and time by human and ecological pathways, we compare optimal spatially heterogeneous policy to spatially uniform policy. We explore the magnitude and pattern of the policy differences with emphasis on the influence of different types of underlying heterogeneity across locations.     

Disaggregated data and trade policy analysis: The value of linking partial and general equilibrium models

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are now routinely utilized for the evaluation of trade policy reforms, yet they are typically quite highly aggregated, which limits their usefulness to trade negotiators who are often interested in impacts at the tariff line. On the other hand, Partial Equilibrium (PE) models, which are typically used for analysis at disaggregate levels, deprive the researcher of the benefits of an economy-wide analysis, which is required to examine the overall impact of broad-based trade policy reforms. Therefore, a PE–GE, nested modeling framework has the prospect of offering an ideal tool for trade policy analysis. In this paper, we develop a PE model that captures international trade, domestic consumption and output, using Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) and Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) structures, market clearing conditions and price linkages, nested within the standard GTAP model. In particular, we extend the welfare decomposition of Huff and Hertel (2001) to this PE–GE model in order to contrast the sources of welfare gain in PE and GE analyses. To illustrate the usefulness of this model, we examine the contentious issue of tariff liberalization in the Indian auto sector, using PE, GE and PE–GE models. Both the PE and PE–GE models show that the imports of motorcycles and automobiles change drastically with both unilateral and bilateral tariff liberalization by India, but the PE model does a poor job predicting the overall size and price level in the industry, post-liberalization. On the other hand, the GE model overestimates substitution between regional suppliers due to “false competition” and underestimates the welfare gain, due to the problem of tariff averaging in the aggregated model. These findings are shown to be robust to wide variation in model parameters. We conclude that the linked model is superior to both the GE and PE counterparts.     

Household income mobility in rural China: 1989–2006

This article analyzes household income mobility in rural China between 1989 and 2006. The results indicate that incomes in rural China are highly mobile. The high degree of rank and quantity mobility implies re-ranking and mean convergence in income distribution, but the disparity between them also enlarged with leveling-up and Gini divergence brought about by economic growth. In addition, there exists considerable transitorily poor and rich in positional mobility. Though, transitory movement provides an opportunity for both poor and rich and decreases long-term inequality, it also causes considerable income fluctuations and economic insecurity. Moreover, the equalizing effect of income mobility on income inequality is weakening.     

A COLLABORATIVE LEARNING LAB: DOES THE FORM MATTER?

A recent paper found that adding a collaborative learning lab (CLL) component to a traditional introductory microeconomics class significantly improved students' scores on a standardized final exam. Here, the authors reconsider these results in two fundamental ways. First, this article is able to include student-specific factors, such as standardized test scores and age, to control for a student's desire and ability to perform. These results suggest that they slightly underestimate the gains from CLL classes. The second question addressed concerns the implementation of the CLL component. In the original work, the CLL class contained only 24 students in class (small-CLL). This paper introduces the CLL component into a class with 48 students (largE-CLL). The authors found students attending a large in-class CLL failed to perform significantly better on a standardized test than students attending classes without an in-class CLL. They also performed significantly worse than students in a small-CLL environment. This article suggests that a CLL can improve scores if care is taken to both maintain an environment that maximizes student–instructor interaction and monitors student collaboration.     

Nonlinearity in dynamic adjustment: Semiparametric estimation of panel labor supply

We estimate a semiparametric dynamic panel data model by the local linear kernel method and we interpret the slope of the nonparametric component function as a varying slope coefficient. Thus, the slope coefficient is a smooth, but otherwise unknown, function of some of the regressors. A Monte Carlo experiment is reported to examine the finite sample performance of the local linear estimator. We apply the estimation method to a labor supply equation for men from the triannual Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Specification tests based on the estimated labor supply elasticities, partial adjustment coefficients, and residuals demonstrate the improvements from a semiparametric partially linear model. Our empirical results point to a need by economists to revisit the issue of the speed of labor market adjustment to policy induced shifts in labor demand and to take more formal econometric account of heterogeneity in wage effects when studying the distributional consequences of tax reforms for labor supply earnings. First version received: July 2000/Final version received: January 2001     

Intertemporal substitution and the liquidity effect in a sticky price model

The liquidity effect, defined as a decrease in nominal interest rates in response to a monetary expansion, is a major stylized fact of the business cycle. This paper first confirms that, with separable preferences, a low degree of intertemporal substitution in consumption is a necessary condition for the existence of the liquidity effect. In contrast to this result, in a model with non-separable preferences and capital accumulation it takes an implausibly high elasticity of intertemporal substitution to produce a liquidity effect. The robustness of these results to alternative degrees of nominal rigidities, capital adjustment costs and stochastic monetary processes is also analysed. We conclude that price stickiness, by itself, does not guarantee the existence of a liquidity effect.     

发展中国家的普遍服务政策

该文构建非对称信息模型分析普遍服务政策问题,其中政府对企业在农村提供服务的边际成本具有非对称信息.该文对区别定价和统一定价两种情形进行了对比分析.在实施区别定价时,不完全信息将提高农村地区的资费水平,并且降低相应的网络覆盖面积;而在实施统一定价时,农村地区的定价可能降低,但却是以网络覆盖的减少为代价的.该文的政策结论是:在实施普遍服务政策时,需要综合考虑网络投资的激励和用户承受能力.