Vapor cloud source modeling workshop chairman's report

The objective of the source Modeling Workshop was to discuss our current state of knowledge about source term modeling, and to identify specific areas where research is needed.     

Roadmap for interactive exploration of sustainable development opportunities: The use of simple instruments in the complex setting of bottom-up processes in rural areas

Before embarking on the development of rural areas or regions it seems necessary to answer the following key questions: what goals of the parties involved can be realized, and where, when and how? To tackle these questions we have developed a ‘roadmap’, as part of an overall sustainable development procedure for physical planning and spatial management in rural areas. The roadmap is a tool for the process manager and the people involved. It helps to find the way in the exploration of the potential social, economic and ecological benefits of developing the area or region. The purpose of using the roadmap is to alleviate doubts about the advantages of cooperating in pursuit of sustainable development. A back-casting approach is applied to create appealing visions of the future and visualize mutual opportunities worth implementing. In this article we first describe the need for this new roadmap. We then describe its use, step by step and in some detail. An example of the exploration process is described and the strengths and weaknesses of the roadmap are discussed.     

Towards sustainable tourism planning in New Zealand: Monitoring local government planning under the Resource Management Act

In the light of the increasing pace and scale of tourism activity in New Zealand, the concept of sustainable tourism has become a key ingredient in the nation's tourism strategy. This paper explores sustainable tourism planning in New Zealand at the level of local government, and in particular, focuses on the implementation of the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) as a mechanism for achieving sustainable tourism. Using the findings of a survey of Regional Councils and Territorial Local Authorities, the paper explores public sector planning responses to tourism impacts and sustainability concerns in New Zealand. The paper extends the earlier work of Page and Thorn (1997. Towards sustainable tourism planning in New Zealand: public sector planning responses. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 5(1): 59-77; 2002. Towards sustainable tourism development and planning in New Zealand: the public sector response revisited. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 10(3): 222-238), which identified major issues of concern at local council level with regard to tourism impacts and argued the need for a national vision for tourism to ensure that the RMA achieved its original goals. Since then, a national tourism strategy has been published and changes in legislation have further empowered local authorities to further progress the sustainability agenda. This paper examines these developments and the ensuing implications, concluding that significant progress has been made in developing tourism policies at the local level, but that a number of constraints and issues limit the development of New Zealand as a sustainable destination.     

Statistical Thinking in Empirical Enquiry

This paper discusses the thought processes involved in statistical problem solving in the broad sense from problem formulation to conclusions. It draws on the literature and in-depth interviews with statistics students and practising statisticians aimed at uncovering their statistical reasoning processes. From these interviews, a four-dimensional framework has been identified for statistical thinking in empirical enquiry. It includes an investigative cycle, an interrogative cycle, types of thinking and dispositions. We have begun to characterise these processes through models that can be used as a basis for thinking tools or frameworks for the enhancement of problem-solving. Tools of this form would complement the mathematical models used in analysis and address areas of the process of statistical investigation that the mathematical models do not, particularly areas requiring the synthesis of problem-contextual and statistical understanding. The central element of published definitions of statistical thinking is "variation". We further discuss the role of variation in the statistical conception of real-world problems, including the search for causes.     

Targeting Conservation Investments in Heterogeneous Landscapes: A Distance-Function Approach and Application to Watershed Management

To achieve an environmental objective at least cost, decision makers must integrate information about spatially variable biophysical and economic conditions. Although the biophysical attributes that contribute to an environmental outcome are often known, the way in which these attributes interact to produce the outcome is often unknown. We introduce a nonparametric conservation targeting approach that relies on distance functions to cost-efficiently allocate conservation funds. We apply the approach empirically to the case of conservation contracting for water-quality objectives. The contract portfolios derived from the application have many desirable properties, including intuitive appeal and robust performance across plausible parametric scoring measures.     

Classifying nursing home patients; the impact of mid-week data collection on variance reduction.

This study analyzes the variance reduction capabilities of three existing nursing home patient classification systems across different shifts and sub-week time periods. The existing classification systems, all based on nursing time data collected in the middle of the working week, performed well with data collected at night and on weekends. Existing nursing home patient classification systems are robust for time periods other than those during which nursing times have usually been collected.