Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets

The returns earned by U.S. equities since 1926 exceed estimates derived from theory, from other periods and markets, and from surveys of institutional investors. Rather than examine historic experience, we estimate the equity premium from the discount rate that equates market valuations with prevailing expectations of future flows. The accounting flows we project are isomorphic to projected dividends but use more available information and narrow the range of reasonable growth rates. For each year between 1985 and 1998, we find that the equity premium is around three percent (or less) in the United States and five other markets.     

Citation success: Evidence from economic history journal publications

This study examines the determinants of citation success among authors who have recently published their work in economic history journals. Besides offering clues about how to improve one's scientific impact, our citation analysis also sheds light on the state of the field of economic history. Consistent with our expectations, we find that full professors, authors appointed at economics and history departments, and authors working in Anglo-Saxon and German countries are more likely to receive citations than other scholars. Long and co-authored articles are also a factor for citation success. We find similar patterns when assessing the same authors' citation success in economics journals. As a novel feature, we demonstrate that the diffusion of research — publication of working papers, as well as conference and workshop presentations — has a first-order positive impact on the citation rate.     

The significance of structural transformation to productivity growth

This paper critically discusses the most common methodology for decomposing productivity change into inter- and intra-firm effects. It is argued that the methodology can be improved to explicitly take the role of structural transformation into account, and by so doing, a potential source of bias in the results is corrected. This requires the use of a tool from the field of theoretical evolutionary biology: Price’s equation. A review of a sample of studies that apply decomposition analyses shows that the methodology is best suited for studies of the evolution of labour productivity and the reallocation of labour. Based on Danish data for 1992–2010, it is then demonstrated how the results of decomposition analyses can be considerably improved by the explicit inclusion of levels in the selection process. In the specific analysis conducted by the current paper, economic selection among industries is included. It is found that the structural transformation of the economy has a large impact on the results of decomposition studies, not least on the magnitude of the inter-firm selection effect. Structural transformation from capital-intensive and thus high-labour-productivity manufacturing towards labour-intensive and thus low-labour-productivity services entails that the traditional methodology is biased downwards in its measure of economic selection. Finally, it is demonstrated that the length of the interval studied, while often determined by data limitations, has a significant but predictable effect on the results, and it is tentatively demonstrated that economic selection tends to be stronger in the trough of the business cycle.     

Linking Altruism and Organizational Learning Capability: A Study from Excellent Human Resources Management Organizations in Spain

Corporate reporting on climate change is of increasing academic interest but is often considered solely from the firm perspective. This article extends current knowledge by considering how institutional pressures influence the greenhouse gas (GHG) reporting practices of multinational oil and gas companies. The results show that regulation under the EU emissions trading scheme and reporting according to the global reporting initiative (GRI) guidelines leads to better quality and more extensive reporting. Although generally adopting proactive climate change strategies, European companies do not have superior GHG reporting practices. Corporate media visibility does not impact GHG reporting practices which may be a reflection of the obscure portrayal of climate change in the print media or the fact that coverage is generally positive. This article adds to the current literature on GHG reporting practices demonstrating that institutional theory along with stakeholder theory and legitimacy theory can give further insights into explaining the GHG reporting practices of multinational companies.     

Impact of Emotional Intelligence and Other Factors on Perception of Ethical Behavior of Peers

This study investigates factors impacting perceptions of ethical conduct of peers of 293 students in four US universities. Self-reported ethical behavior and recognition of emotions in others (a dimension of emotional intelligence) impacted perception of ethical behavior of peers. None of the other dimensions of emotional intelligence were significant. Age, Race, Sex, GPA, or type of major (business versus nonbusiness) did not impact perception of ethical behavior of peers. Implications of the results of the study for business schools and industry professionals are discussed.     

Impact of Emotional Intelligence,Ethical Climate,and Behavior of Peers on Ethical Behavior of Nurses

This study examines factors impacting ethical behavior of 103 hospital nurses. The level of emotional intelligence and ethical behavior of peers had a significant impact on ethical behavior of nurses. Independence climate had a significant impact on ethical behavior of nurses. Other ethical climate types such as professional, caring, rules, instrumental, and efficiency did not impact ethical behavior of respondents. Implications of this study for researchers and practitioners are discussed.     

Risky procurement with an insider bidder

Procurement auctions carry substantial risk when the value of the project is highly uncertain and known only to insiders. This paper reports the results from a series of experiments comparing the performance of three auction formats in such complex and risky settings. In the experiment, every bidder knows the private value for the project but only a single insider bidder knows the common-value part. In addition to the standard second-price and English auctions we test the “qualifying auction,” a two-stage format commonly used in the sale of complex and risky assets. The qualifying auction has a fully “revealing” equilibrium that implements the revenue-maximizing outcome but it also has an uninformative “babbling” equilibrium in which bidders place arbitrarily high bids in the first stage. In the experiments, the latter equilibrium has more drawing power, which causes the qualifying auction to perform worse than the English auction and only slightly better than a sealed-bid second-price auction. Compared to the two other formats, the English auction is roughly 40% more efficient, yields 50% more revenues, avoids windfall profits for the insider, while protecting uninformed bidders from losses.     

Will corporate directors engage in bias arbitrage to curry favor with shareholders?

Bias arbitrage reflects a situation where agents engage in courses of action designed to take advantage of principals’ misperceptions of risk for personal gain (Aviram, 2007). The current study investigates whether corporate directors will attempt to curry favor with shareholders by engaging in bias arbitrage; specifically, we examine whether directors will support a costly initiative that, at best, would insignificantly lower the estimated probable risk of financial reporting fraud to bolster their chances of being reelected to the board. A total of 71 corporate directors participated in an experiment that included a within-participant treatment (shareholders’ perception of risk was the same as or higher than the director’s estimate of probable risk) and two between-participant treatments (director’s upcoming reelection risk was low or high; board meeting discussion transparency was low or high). When shareholders’ perceived risk and directors’ estimate of probable risk were the same, support for the initiative was relatively low across the reelection risk and discussion transparency treatments. When shareholders’ perceived risk was higher than probable risk, a significant interaction term indicates that support for the initiative was (1) low when reelection risk was low, irrespective of discussion transparency, (2) moderate when reelection risk and discussion transparency were high, and (3) high when reelection risk was high and discussion transparency was low. We provide evidence of a potential threat to effective enterprise risk management and director objectivity that has not previously been investigated and evaluate a method for mitigating this threat.     

Investor sophistication and risk taking

Using investment policy data of 857 Dutch pension funds during 1999–2006, we develop three indicators of investor sophistication. The indicators show that pension funds’ strategic portfolio choices are often based on coarse and less sophisticated approaches. First, most pension funds round strategic asset allocations to the nearest multiple of 5%, similar to age heaping in demographic and historical studies. Second, many pension funds invest little or nothing in alternative, more complex asset classes, resulting in limited asset diversification. Third, many pension funds favor regional investments and as such do not fully employ the opportunities of international risk diversification. Our indicators are correlated with pension fund size, in line with the expectation that smaller pension funds are generally less sophisticated than large pension funds. Using the indicators for investor sophistication, we show that less sophisticated pension funds tend to opt for investment strategies with less risk.     

Ranking economic history journals: a citation-based impact-adjusted analysis

This study ranks—for the first time—12 international academic journals that have economic history as their main topic. The ranking is based on data collected for the year 2007. Journals are ranked using standard citation analysis where we adjust for age, size and self-citation of journals. We also compare the leading economic history journals with the leading journals in economics in order to measure the influence on economics of economic history, and vice versa. With a few exceptions, our results confirm the general idea about what economic history journals are the most influential for economic history, and that, although economic history is quite independent from economics as a whole, knowledge exchange between the two fields is indeed going on.