The role of affect in consumers' temporal judgments

The role of time and mood as consumer behavior constructs has seen increasing independent attention over the past several years. Two studies on the impact of transient affective states on consumers' temporal judgments are reported. In accordance with the research hypotheses, both studies demonstrated strong mood effects on subject's time perception and orientation. The findings were validated across two different mood-inducing manipulations and supported the general theoretical foundation of the mediating roles of affective states on consumers' temporal judgments. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Restructuring of the Dutch Nonlife Insurance Industry: Consolidation,Organizational Form,and Focus

Since the deregulation of the European insurance market in 1994, Dutch nonlife insurance firms have sized up and increased their focus. Concurrently, the stock organizational form has become increasingly dominant. This article investigates these 1995–2005 trends from a cost‐efficiency perspective. We observe substantial economies of scale that are even larger for smaller firms. In line with the efficient structure hypothesis, both stocks and mutuals are found to have comparative cost advantages. Supporting the strategic focus hypothesis, we find that more specialized insurers have lower costs. Thick frontier efficiency estimates point to large cost X‐inefficiencies that have moderately decreased over time.     

Stock repurchases: How firms choose between a self tender offer and an open-market program

In practice, open-market stock repurchase programs outnumber self tender offers by approximately 10–1. This evidence is puzzling given that tender offers are more efficient in disbursing free cash and in signaling undervaluation – the two main motivations suggested in the literature for repurchasing shares. We provide a theoretical model to explore this puzzle. In the model, tender offers disburse free cash quickly but induce information asymmetry and hence require a price premium. Open-market programs disburse free cash slowly, and hence do not require a price premium, but because they are slow, result in partial free cash waste. The model predicts that the likelihood that a tender offer will be chosen over an open-market program increases with the agency costs of free cash and decreases with uncertainty (risk), information asymmetry, ownership concentration, and liquidity. These predictions are generally consistent with the empirical evidence.     

Canadian Perspectives on the Challenges of Consumer Bankruptcies

Consumer bankruptcies in Canada have become a major legal, economic and social phenomenon. The number of consumer bankruptcies almost tripled between 1985 and 1995 and exceeded 75,000 in 1996. The author examines the causes of the rapidly escalating number of bankruptcies and shows that there is a strong correlation between the number of consumer bankruptcies and the equally rapid growth in the volume of consumer credit. The paper rejects the argument of credit grantors and federal bankruptcy officials that going bankrupt and obtaining a discharge from one's debts has become too easy and that a high percentage of consumer bankrupts could have made a consumer proposal involving a substantial repayment of their debts.The paper also joins issue with the provisions in Bill C-5, a bill amending the federal Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act currently before the Canadian Parliament, and criticizes the proposed amendments involving consumer bankruptcies on the ground that they ignore or misinterpret the available data, much of them generated by the Canadian Government itself.     

EXPLORING THE USEFULNESS OF A NONRANDOM HOLDOUT SAMPLE FOR MODEL VALIDATION: WELFARE EFFECTS ON FEMALE BEHAVIOR*

A particularly challenging use of decision‐theoretic models in economics is to forecast the impact of large changes in the environment. The problem we explore in this article is how to gain confidence in a model's ability to predict the impact of such large changes. We show that an approach to validation and model selection that includes the choice of a “nonrandom holdout sample,” a sample that differs significantly from the estimation sample along the policy dimension that the model is meant to forecast, can be fruitful.     

Governmental interventions and household behavior in a developing country: Anticipating the unanticipated consequences of social programs

Estimates of the joint effects of governmental health, education and family planning programs as well as sources of water on fertility, child mortality and schooling are obtained from combined district-level and household-level data from rural India. The estimates are used both to test the implications of a model of household decision-making and to assess the effectiveness of the joint, public provision of such services in shifting resources from increasing family size to augmenting human capital per person. The results appear consistent with household optimizing behavior and suggest that reductions in the costs of medical services, contraceptives and schooling and the improvement of water sources are mutually reinforcing alternatives for implementing the joint policy goals of reduced population growth and increased human capital formation.