THE STATISTICS OF LONG-HORIZON REGRESSIONS REVISITED1

This paper compares commonly used approaches for estimating the relation between long-horizon returns and a predetermined variable X₁, such as dividend yields. Specifically, we look at regression of (i) nonoverlapping multiperiod returns on X_t (ii) overlapping multiperiod returns on X_t, (iii) single-period returns on multiperiod X_t, and (iv) single-period returns on X_t and its implied long-horizon regression coefficient. We provide analytical formulae which quantify the efficiency of the estimators used in the various approaches. Using the formulae, as well as Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the relative efficiency of the estimators used in the various approaches differs remarkably, depending on the dynamic structure of the regressor. of special interest for financial economists, when the regressors are highly autocorrelated, we find that the regressions (ii) (iii), and (iv) provide only marginal efficiency gains above and beyond the nonoverlapping long-horizon regression.     

Short-run fluctuations in fertility and mortality in pre-industrial Sweden

This paper describes and interprets annual Swedish data from 1750 to 1869 on weather, harvests, real wages, birth rates, and death rates using vector autogression. Impulses due to unexplained increases in wealth, whether this occurred through increased real wages, improved agricultural yields, or warmer winters, led in the short run to increased fertility and decreased infant and non-infant mortality, and hence to increased rates of population growth. Unexplained or unanticipated fluctuations in infant mortality led to replacement cycles in fertility within one to three years, although only a negligible cumulative effect on fertility persisted after five to ten years. Fluctuations in deaths among persons older than one year evoked a fertility response several years later, but this replacement response persisted after more than a decade. Although vector autoregression is not designed to account for long-term trends and their consequences, the interrelationships found here among exogenous weather shocks and fluctuations in economic conditions and demographic rates provide support for the homeostatic mechanisms hypothesized by classical economists and discussed by Malthus. The methodology of vector autoregression appears useful for studying historical series on climatic, economic and demographic variables where we do not yet have a sufficient theoretical foundation for specifying and estimating structural models.     

Fluctuations in innovations overtime

This paper first explains the concept of innovation life cycles and their relationship to leading sectors of the economy. It then briefly describes the relationship between innovation life cycles and long waves in macro-economic development, and presents a chronology and characterisation of the four phases of the long wave derived from Schumpeter. Various phases of the long wave could be expected to have different effects on the propensity to innovate, and this propensity probably varies also between new industries and existing established industries, as well as between product and process innovations. A list ef 80 major innovations is classified by sector and date, to provide a preliminary empirical validation of the hypotheses advanced on the varying influence of the successive phases of the long wave on different types of innovation. Finally, the author's findings are compared with those of Mensch and Schmookler.     

‘Managerialism’, ‘ownerism’ and risk

This paper proposes that managers, having the value of their human capital dependent on the performance of the firm they manage, and being unable to diversify away this risk, are expected to attempt to reduce their employment risk internally by project selection or by income smoothing, intended to stabilize the firm's income stream. An empirical investigation shows that manager-controlled firms exercise ‘income smoothing’ to a greater extent than owner-controlled firms, have relatively lower unsystematic risk and perhaps lower systematic risk.     

Subprime Loan Default Resolutions: Do They Vary Across Mortgage Products and Borrower Demographic Groups?

This paper examines default outcomes for subprime first lien loans during the recent subprime mortgage boom. It conducts this investigation in two phases. The paper first examines factors associated with pre-foreclosure outcomes for subprime mortgages in default. It then examines factors associated with different outcomes for loans that enter foreclosure. These factors include less understood elements such as mortgage product features and borrower demographics. The analysis is based on detailed loan-level data and employs multinomial logit models in a hazard framework. Results show that default resolutions vary with product features and borrower demographics. Adjustable rate and interest-only mortgages, and loans with low- or no-documentation are more likely to enter foreclosure proceedings, and, once in foreclosure, are more likely to become REO. The existence of junior liens increases the probability of the loan remaining in default. Owner-occupancy is associated with lower likelihood of foreclosure initiation and REO, and greater likelihood of curing default. Additionally, default outcomes are impacted by local legal, economic and housing market conditions, and the equity in the home.     

Is neuroaccounting waiting in the wings? An essay

This paper discusses a recently published handbook on neuroeconomics ( and ) and extends the discussion to reasons why this newly emerging discipline should be of interest to behavioral accounting researchers. We evaluate the achieved and potential contribution of neuroeconomics to the study of human economic behavior, and examine what behavioral accounting researchers can learn from neuroeconomics and whether we should expect to see a similar sub-field emerge within behavioral accounting in the near future. We conclude that a separate sub-field within behavioral accounting is not likely in the near future due mostly to practical reasons. However, the behavioral accounting researcher would do well to follow research in this discipline closely, and behavioral accountants in the near future are likely to collaborate with neuroscientists and neuroeconomists on questions of mutual interest.