COMMENT MESURER LA CONTRIBUTION DU SECTEUR NON STRUCTURE A LA PRODUCTION NATIONALE DANS LES PAYS DU TIERS MONDE?*

This article discusses methods of integrating the “informal sector” in the national accounts of developing countries. This sector, defined generally as composed of producers who do not keep formal accounts, is difficult to capture by usual statistical collection techniques, and therefore is often neglected. The paper develops the requirements for a direct inquiry approach to obtaining data for this sector, emphasizing the need for national, exhaustive, and periodic coverage. It then proceees to propose methods of analysis for informal sector enterprises with and without fixed locations, tailored to the specific characteristics of each trade. The final section presents some results of application of the proposed methods in Tunisia and Niger.     

Women’s Empowerment and Child Malnutrition: The Case of Mozambique

Using data from the 2011 Demographic and Health Survey in Mozambique this paper checks whether women empowerment has an impact on the nutritional status of children. We evaluate the degree of empowerment of women via multidimensional approaches, making a distinction between five domains: decision making, use of violence by husband/partner, attitude of the woman towards this use of violence, available information, material resources. Each domain includes several questions reflecting different aspects of empowerment. For each domain of empowerment, three different methods of aggregation are used: correspondence analysis, the so‐called Alkire and Foster methodology and the “fuzzy sets” approach. The impact of women empowerment on the nutritional status of children is analyzed via the MIMIC approach. No clear‐cut conclusion concerning the possible impact of women’s empowerment on the nutritional status of children could be drawn. But, ceteris paribus, the material wealth of the household, the educational level of the mother and her BMI are positively correlated with the nutritional status of children which is also higher when the child is female. Finally, there are important differences in the nutritional status of children between the various regions of Mozambique and this nutritional status is in most regions lower in rural areas.     

Unit roots,interest rate spreads,and inflation forecasts

Recent research suggests that long-term interest rate spreads provide information that can be useful in forecasting inflation, but that the spread between the three-month and six-month Treasury bill rates appears to have little forecasting ability. This paper uses the concepts of unit roots and cointegration to examine the failure of the short-term T-bill spread to forecast inflation. The results suggest that the interest rate spread has little forecasting value because inflation and the interest rate spread exhibit distinctly different time-series properties.     

Arbitrage pricing of defaultable game options with applications to convertible bonds

This paper is the first in a series that we devote to studying the problems of valuation and hedging of defaultable game options in general, and convertible corporate bonds in particular. Here, we present mathematical foundations for our overall study. Specifically, we provide several results characterizing the arbitrage price of a defaultable game option in terms of relevant Dynkin games. In addition, we provide important results regarding price decomposition of defaultable options. These general results are then specified to the case of convertible bonds, yielding in particular a decomposition of convertible bonds in an optional and a bond component.     

Up and down credit risk

This paper discusses the main modeling approaches that have been developed for handling portfolio credit derivatives, with a focus on the question of hedging. In particular, the so-called top, top down and bottom up approaches are considered. We give some mathematical insights regarding the fact that information, namely the choice of a relevant model filtration, is the major modeling issue. In this regard, we examine the notion of thinning that was recently advocated for the purpose of hedging a multi-name derivative by single-name derivatives. We then illustrate by means of numerical simulations (semi-static hedging experiments) why and when the portfolio loss process may not be a ‘sufficient statistic’ for the purpose of valuation and hedging of portfolio credit risk.     

Contracts offered by bureaucrats

We examine the power of incentives in bureaucracies by studying contracts offered by a bureaucrat to her agent. The bureaucrat operates under a fixed budget, optimally chosen by a funding authority, and she can engage in policy drift, which we define as inversely related to her intrinsic motivation. Interaction between a fixed budget and policy drift results in low‐powered incentives. We discuss how the bureaucrat may benefit from stricter accountability as it leads to larger budgets. Low‐powered incentives remain even in an alternative centralized setting, where the funding authority contracts directly with the agent using the bureaucrat to monitor output.     

Native language,spoken language,translation and trade

We construct new series for common native language and common spoken language for 195 countries, which we use together with series for common official language and linguistic proximity in order to draw inferences about (1) the aggregate impact of all linguistic factors on bilateral trade, (2) the separate role of ease of communication as distinct from ethnicity and trust, and (3) the contribution of translation and interpreters to ease of communication. The results show that the impact of linguistic factors, all together, is at least twice as great as the usual dummy variable for common language, resting on official language, would say. In addition, ease of communication plays a distinct role, apart from ethnicity and trust, and so far as ease of communication enters, translation and interpreters are significant. Finally, emigrants have much to do with the role of ethnicity and trust in linguistic influence.