Capital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary Policy

Monetary policy played an important role in the Asian experience with capital inflows. Central banks used monetary policy to contain the threat of overheating, but the resulting increases in interest rates attracted additional inflows. Empirical measurement of these links shows that tight monetary policy was an important source of inflows to Indonesia and Thailand in recent years, and that the independence of monetary policy decreased during the inflow period.     

General training by firms, apprentice contracts, and public policy

Workers will not pay for general on-the-job training if contracts are not enforceable. Firms may if there are mobility frictions. Private information about worker productivities, however, prevents workers who quit receiving their marginal products elsewhere. Their new employers then receive external benefits from their training. In this paper, training firms increase profits by offering apprenticeships which commit firms to high wages for those trainees retained on completion. At these high wages, only good workers are retained. This signals their productivity and reduces the external benefits if they subsequently quit. Regulation of apprenticeship length (a historically important feature) enhances efficiency. Appropriate subsidies enhance it further.     

Taxation and household portfolio composition: US evidence from the 1980s and 1990s

This paper explores the relationship between household marginal income tax rates, the set of financial assets that households own, and the portfolio shares accounted for by each of these assets. It analyzes data from the 1983, 1989, 1992, 1995, and 1998 Surveys of Consumer Finances and develops a new algorithm for imputing federal marginal tax rates to households in these surveys. The empirical findings suggest that marginal tax rates have important effects on asset allocation decisions. The probability that a household owns tax-advantaged assets, such as tax-exempt bonds or assets held in tax-deferred accounts, is positively related to its tax rate on ordinary income. In addition, the portfolio share invested in corporate stock, which is taxed less heavily than interest bearing assets, is increasing in the household’s ordinary income tax rate. Holdings of heavily taxed assets, such as interest-bearing accounts, decline as a share of wealth as a household’s marginal tax rate increases.     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Does Foreign Aid Promote Growth? Exploring the Role of Financial Liberalization

This paper examines the impact of foreign aid on the process of economic development in India by controlling for the degree of financial liberalization. A composite index is constructed using the method of principal component analysis to capture the joint influence of various financial sector policies. The results show that while foreign aid exerts a direct negative influence on output expansion, its indirect effect via financial liberalization is positive. Therefore, an important implication of the findings in this paper is that adequate liberalization in the financial system of the host country is a crucial requirement for effective foreign aid. Our results are robust to a number of control variables and estimation techniques.     

Expert opinion and cuisine reputation in the market for restaurant meals

As food is an experience good, the market for restaurant meals is a market where the cost of acquiring information regarding quality is relatively high. In such markets consumers often turn to reputation measures to guide purchase decisions. As Australia does not have a longstanding cuisine style of its own, and given Australia has been open to substantial immigration inflows since federation, it represents an especially appropriate market to study regarding the impact of individual restaurant reputation and collective cuisine reputation on meal prices. The following study uses the hedonic price approach to investigate the implicit price of individual reputation indicators, cuisine type reputation indicators and other objective indicators in the market for restaurant meals. The empirical findings presented suggest that both individual restaurant reputation and cuisine type reputation are important. Other important factors are shown to include the quality of the restaurant wine list, the availability of private dining rooms, and whether or not there is an outdoor dining option.     

Who pays the high health costs of older workers? Evidence from prostate cancer screening mandates

Between 1992 and 2009, 30 US states adopted laws mandating that health insurance plans cover screenings for prostate cancer. Because prostate cancer screenings are used almost exclusively by men over age 50, these mandates raise the cost of insuring older men relative to other groups. This article uses a triple-difference empirical strategy to take advantage of this quasi-random natural experiment in raising the cost of employing older workers. Using Integrated Public Use Microdata Series data from the March Supplement of the Current Population Survey, I find that the increased cost of insuring older workers results in their receiving 2.8% lower hourly wages, being 2% less likely to be employed and being 0.7% less likely to have employer-sponsored health insurance.     

The effects of domestic rice market interventions outside business-as-usual conditions for imported rice prices

The Philippine government intervenes in the domestic rice market through the imposition of import tariffs and the provision of producer and consumer subsidies. While policymakers are aware that these programmes come with allocative efficiency costs, they justify the programmes on the grounds that they insulate the domestic economy from unexpected price spikes in the international rice market. An interesting matter for policy evaluation is to quantify the insulation benefit that the programmes provide in circumstances of sudden severe import price spikes. To examine this question, we undertake a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation in which the Philippines is subject to an external rice price shock. We find that the insulation benefit of the support programmes under a 2008-like event is worth approximately 0.10% of real consumption. However, the cost of insuring against these price spikes is significant. We estimate the annual cost of the rice market interventions at approximately 0.40% of real consumption.     

Bernanke versus Taylor: a post mortem

Our analysis sheds light on the issue of whether the monetary policy contributed to the recent housing boom and bust. We have estimated and analysed a model that allows a comparison between the actual policy and several alternative Taylor rules. When the Taylor rule path was computed using revised data and the deflator for the GDP, we found a notable impact on key housing market variables, supporting Taylor’s critique of the Fed policy. However, the bulk of our evidence suggests that the policy as it would have been conducted under our real-time Taylor rules would not have had any significant impact on the housing market variables. This conclusion is robust with regard to the price index used as well as the relative weights used on the inflation and output gaps.     

Dictator monopolies and essential goods: experimental evidence

Monopolists set prices and if the good is unessential this may place the consumer in an uncomfortable position. But if the good is essential the consumer faces a pay-to-live or -die choice. Dictator and ultimatum games are superficially similar in that one game offers the right of refusal, while the other does not. The dictator monopoly is, however, not a game, and behaviour could be radically different in the market environment versus game environment. We recast the dictator game as a dictator monopoly experiment and find that the fairness characteristic of the game evaporates quickly as rounds progress.