House Prices and Inflation

The present paper examines the long-run impact of inflation on homeowner equity by investigating the relationship between house prices and the prices of nonhousing goods and services, rather than return series and inflation rates as in previous empirical studies on the inflation hedging ability of real estate. There are two reasons for this methodological departure from prior practice: (1) while the total return on housing cannot be accurately measured, the total return on housing is fully reflected in housing prices, and (2) given that using returns or differencing a time series leads to a loss of long-run information contained in the series, valuable long-run information can be captured by using prices. Also, unlike previous related studies, we exclude housing costs from goods and services prices to avoid potential bias in estimating how inflation affects housing prices. Monthly data series are collected for existing and for new house prices as well as the consumer price index excluding housing costs for the period 1968–2000. Based on both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and recursive regressions, the empirical results yield estimated Fisher coefficients that are consistently greater than one over the sample period. Thus, we infer that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long run.     

Taxation,imperfect competition,and discontinuities

Most work on taxation assumes that market adjustments to taxation will be small and continuous and so analyzes the effects of taxation using standard marginal methods. However, the world often changes in large and discontinuous ways. This paper looks at the effects of taxation when discontinuities in market adjustments are allowed because market structure is determined endogenously by the discrete entry and exit decisions of firms. The results indicate that the potential for discontinuities generates tax effects that are considerably different from those that emerge when adjustments are small and continuous. With discontinuities, taxes can have large and discrete effects, for example, by increasing prices far in excess of the tax itself or by changing utility in a highly nonmarginal way. Of more significance, with discontinuities taxes can actually increase welfare even when they lessen competition and raise prices. Taxes can also have markedly different effects on the income and welfare of different groups. Consumers are always made worse off by a tax, but a tax may be supported by the firms in an industry if the tax limits entry and thereby increases firm profits.     

Book Reviews

Idris F. Sulaiman, G. Hanafi Sofyan and Shannon Luke Smith (eds) (1998), Bridging the Arafura Sea: Australia-Indonesia Relations in Prosperity and Adversity, Asia Pacific Press, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Management, The Australian National University, pp. xxi + 325.

David C. Cole and Betty F. Slade (1996), Building a Modern Financial System: The Indonesian Experience, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. xxvii + 379. Cloth: US$59.95; paper, US$25.

Chris Manning (1998), Indonesian Labour in Transition: An Indonesian Success Story?, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. xxii + 323.

Hal Hill and Thee Kian Wie (eds) (1998), Indonesia's Technological Challenge, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, and Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, paper, pp. xxv + 414.

Steven J. Keuning (1996), Accounting for Economic Development and Social Change, IOS Press, Amsterdam, Oxford, Tokyo, Washington DC, pp. x + 233. NLG100; £39; DM90;US$58.

Thomas Brandt (1996; English trans. 1997), Kunci Budaya. Business in Indonesia: The Cultural Key to Success, goasia Verlag, Bad Oldesloe, Germany.     

Analysis and design of focused demand chains

The paper describes the evolution of focused demand chains over an extended period of time as a major UK lighting manufacturer has sought to remain an international player in a fast changing business environment. Analysis and design procedures make use of the concepts of Wickham Skinner and Marshall Fisher to answer the strategic questions “what facilities are required and how should they be laid out to enable the necessary focused demand chains?” and to answer the tactical question “which focused demand chain is appropriate for this product?” The case study then details how the company has been transformed from operating within a traditional supply chain to driving change via the engineering of four focused demand chains. The paper concludes with a comparison of operations enablers, customer choice, and business performance metrics covering the transition period culminating in the current focused demand chain scenario. By matching products to the appropriate value stream there is a consequential reduction in product development time of 75%; manufacturing costs reduction of up to 27%; and up to 95% reduction in delivery lead times.     

Measuring and testing change in strategic management research

This paper reviews some critical issues associated with measuring and testing change and then reports on how strategy researchers have addressed those matters. We first discuss three key methodological requirements: reliability assumptions of change variables, correlations between the change variable and its initial measure, and selection of unbiased measurement alternatives. Next, we present data from a content analysis of 126 change studies which suggest that strategy researchers tend not to recognize those requirements. Indeed, the typical approach used to measure and test change (as a simple difference between two measures of the same variable) is usually inappropriate and could lead to inaccurate findings and flawed conclusions. We conclude by offering suggestions for how change can be studied more rigorously. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Absence management and the issues of job retention and return to work

Strategies aimed at facilitating the job retention and return to work of sick and injured workers are currently the subject of growing attention. In this article the authors examine the nature and potential significance of such strategies to absence management and utilise interview findings to shed light on current employer policies and practices relating to the management of long‐term absences. They conclude that at the national level a large proportion of working days lost through sickness absence stem from relatively long spells of absence and that the adoption of a proactive approach to supporting the return to work of ill and injured workers can have beneficial consequences. However, they further conclude that few organisations appear to have comprehensive arrangements in place to handle cases of long‐term absence. A number of areas where present employer arrangements could usefully be reviewed are therefore identified.     

Time on Welfare

A bstract . Long-term welfare participation by women is examined using data from Akron , Ohio. Age at entry to welfare, previous work experience , and number of children are the best predictors of long-term welfare use. Race and education are not statistically significant. Changes in family structure are the major reason why women enter welfare. But labor market reasons predortant for married couples. Labor market reasons are the most important reason why women leave the welfare system. For "high risk" women, welfare is less a safety net than a dependency trap. Public policy should focus on pregnancy among high-risk teens.