Too big to fail: Measures,remedies, and consequences for efficiency and stability*

This paper evaluates whether reform efforts addressing “too big to fail” actually enhance the stability of the financial system, and whether trade‐offs exist between stability and efficiency. We also present and discuss various measures of bank size and complexity since such measures are essential for implementing appropriate corrective remedies. As we will show, there are no unambiguous measures of size or complexity that can fully capture a bank's contribution to systemic risk. Their effects on efficiency are also impossible to capture with certainty. While we recognize the need for additional research and empirical evidence, we do identify weaknesses and strengths of proposed and implemented reforms that could have consequences for bank stability and efficiency.     

Scientific misconduct and the responsible conduct of research in science and economics

Abstract

Considered here are matters relating to the responsible conduct of research in economics and science in the United States for the last forty years. In science there was a “late 20th century wave” of scientific misconduct and then a “millennial wave”. For economics in the former era, episodes of honest error and replication failure occurred. Recently plagiarism and data manipulation have been reported. Overall few economists seem to fabricate data, but falsification of data, replication failure, and plagiarism occur. Furthermore, replication failure is the one thing that scientific misconduct and honest error have in common. In economics and compared to the sciences, there have been no misconduct hearings, no economist has been charged with a crime, nor has anyone served time in prison for scientific misconduct. Science and economics seem to be sufficiently self-corrective so that systemic science failure does not utterly thwart scientific progress in the long run.     

The effect of state health insurance benefit mandates on premiums and employee contributions

The average US state has 40 benefit mandates, laws requiring health insurance to cover particular conditions, treatments, providers or people. We investigate the extent to which these mandates increase the health insurance premiums paid by employers, and the extent to which these higher premiums are passed on to employees in the form of higher employee contributions. We use state-level data on premiums and employee contributions to health insurance from the insurance component of the 1996–2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Our main analysis is a fixed effects regression that controls for age, race, income, union membership and the presence of state mandate waivers. We find robust evidence that the average mandate increases premiums by approximately 0.6%, and that mandates lead to similar increases in employee contributions for single-coverage health insurance plans. Alternative specifications using an AR(1) error structure estimate a larger effect of mandates, while those using generalized estimating equations estimate smaller effects. We find that mandates requiring insurers to cover a specific benefit, as opposed to a specific type of provider or person, lead to the largest increases in employee contributions.     

Dining out,the missing food consumption in China

Food security concern in China is also the world’s concern. Studies on food consumption in the past, however, often neglected the increasing food consumed away from home (FAFH). Drawn on a survey data recently conducted in nine cities by a week-long diary method, we found that FAFH in urban China accounts for a significant proportion of total food consumption, although its share varies by food category. With substantial expected income growth, overall FAFH consumption will likely continue to rise, but would be negatively affected by the rapid societal aging process, both in dining out probability and per capita consumption level. The main findings of this study have implications for food processing and service industries as well as for studies in food-related environmental issues.     

INTRANATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL KNOWLEDGE FLOWS: EFFECTS ON THE FORMAL AND INFORMAL SECTORS

This article studies the effects of international and intranational knowledge flows. Contributions include comparing the effects of knowledge flows on the formal and informal sectors and determining multilateral spatial spillovers of innovation. Results show that formal entrepreneurs respect intranational intellectual property rights, but benefit from international spillovers, especially from patents granted. In contrast, informal entrepreneurs somewhat respect intranational patents granted, but not patent applications and citations. International spillovers to the informal sector are mainly from patents granted. Spillover magnitudes are greater internationally than intranationally, and greater in the informal sector than the formal sector (except for trademarks). (JEL O33, L26, K42)     

THE RISK OF FIRE SALES IN THE TRI‐PARTY REPO MARKET

This paper studies the risk of “fire sales” in the tri‐party repo market, a large and important market where securities dealers find short‐term funding for a substantial portion of their own and their clients' assets. We distinguish between fire sales of assets by a dealer who, facing a run that could lead to default, sells securities to generate liquidity, and fire sales of assets by repo investors after a dealer's default has occurred. While fire sales do cause damage no matter how they arise, the tools available to lessen the harm from the two types of fire sales are different. We find that limited tools are available to mitigate the risk of predefault fire sales and that no established tools currently exist to mitigate the risk of postdefault sales. (JEL G01, G18)     

Febuxostat in the management of gout: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Objective:

To determine the cost-effectiveness of febuxostat vs allopurinol for the management of gout.

Methods:

A stochastic microsimulation cost-effectiveness model with a US private-payer perspective and 5-year time horizon was developed. Model flow based on guideline and real-world treatment paradigms incorporated gout flare, serum uric acid (sUA) testing, treatment titration, discontinuation, and adverse events, chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence and progression, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence. Outcomes were estimated for the general gout population and for gout patients with CKD stages 3/4. Modeled treatment interventions were daily oral febuxostat 40–80?mg and allopurinol 100–300?mg. Baseline patient characteristics were taken from epidemiologic studies, efficacy data from randomized controlled trials, adverse event rates from package inserts, and costs from the literature, government sources, and expert opinion. Eight clinically-relevant incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated: per patient reaching target sUA, per flare avoided, per CKD incidence, progression, stages 3/4 progression, and stage 5 progression avoided, per incident T2DM avoided, and per death avoided.

Results:

Five-year incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the general gout population were $5377 per patient reaching target sUA, $1773 per flare avoided, $221,795 per incident CKD avoided, $29,063 per CKD progression avoided, $36,018 per progression to CKD 3/4 avoided, $71,426 per progression to CKD 5 avoided, $214,277 per incident T2DM avoided, and $217,971 per death avoided. In patients with CKD 3/4, febuxostat dominated allopurinol for all cost-effectiveness outcome measures.

Conclusions:

Febuxostat may be a cost-effective alternative to allopurinol, especially for patients with CKD stages 3 or 4.     

Hospital resource use of patients receiving isavuconazole vs voriconazole for invasive mold infections in the phase III SECURE trial

Objective: In the phase III SECURE trial, isavuconazole was non-inferior to voriconazole for all-cause mortality for the primary treatment of invasive mold disease (IMD) caused by Aspergillus spp. and other filamentous fungi. This analysis assessed whether hospital resource utilization was different between patients treated with isavuconazole vs voriconazole in SECURE. Methods: The analysis population comprised adults with proven/probable/possible IMD enrolled in SECURE. The primary endpoint was hospital length of stay (LOS) in the overall trial population. Patients were also stratified by estimated glomerular filtration rate-modification of diet in renal disease category (< 60?mL/min/1.73 m² [moderate-to-severe impairment] and ≥60?mL/min/1.73 m² [mild or no impairment]), body mass index (BMI; <25, ≥25–<30, and ≥30?kg/m²), and age (≤45, >45–≤65, and >65 years). Results: Data from 516 patients (258 per arm) were evaluated. Overall, median LOS was not statistically significantly different between the isavuconazole (15.0 days) and voriconazole (16.0 days; p?=?0.607) arms. Median LOS was statistically significantly shorter in patients with moderate-to-severe renal impairment treated with isavuconazole (9.0 days) vs voriconazole (19.0 days; hazard ratio [HR]: 3.44; 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?1.51–7.83). Median LOS was shorter, but not significantly, in patients with a BMI ≥30?kg/m² (isavuconazole 13.5 days vs voriconazole 22 days; HR?=?1.57; 95% CI?=?0.70–3.52) or aged >65 years (isavuconazole 15.0 days vs voriconazole 20.0 days; HR?=?1.37; 95% CI?=?0.87–2.16). Limitations: As the patient subgroups analyzed were small, sub-group findings should be interpreted with caution in light of the lack of statistical significance for each sub-group-by-treatment interaction. Conclusions: Isavuconazole may reduce hospital LOS in certain subgroups of patients with IMD, especially those with moderate-to-severe renal impairment.