Heterogeneous agent modelling of technology adoption in competitive agricultural markets

Slow adoption rates of innovation in rural settings are a source of frustration for technology advocates. Adoption decisions consume two valuable but limited resources: (1) time, and (2) capacity to integrate new information. We explore the structural sociological factors using a heterogeneous agent programming model (HAM) to understand the mechanics of socio-economic linkages of diffusion in rural settings. Diffusion constraints are introduced in the form of network-threshold values that reflect the cumulative effects of experience and observation of peers’ experiences. We test a range of confounding factors and find that strong social pressures dramatically increase both innovation diffusion penetration and irregularity. Clustering is caused by strong social pressures and the aggregation of buyers near innovative firms which creates a pattern of buying explosions. As competition between innovators increases, the resulting diffusion process becomes more variable and irregular and is highly likely to result in innovation monopolies in rural areas.     

Evaluating the performance of a predictive modeling approach to identifying members at high-risk of hospitalization

Abstract

Aims: To evaluate the risk-of-hospitalization (ROH) models developed at Blue Cross Blue Shield of Louisiana (BCBSLA) and compare this approach to the DxCG risk-score algorithms utilized by many health plans.

Materials and Methods: Time zero for this study was December 31, 2016. BCBSLA members were eligible for study inclusion if they were fully insured; aged 80?years or younger; and had continuous enrollment starting on or before June 1, 2016, through time zero. Up to 2?years of historical claims data from time zero per patient was included for model development. Members were excluded if they had cancer, renal failure, or were admitted for hospice. The Blue Cross ROH models were developed using (1) regularized logistic regression and (2) random decision forests (a tree ensemble learning classification method). All models were generated using Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python. Prognostic capabilities of DxCG risk-score algorithms were compared to those of the Blue Cross models.

Results: When stratifying by the top 0.1% of members with the highest ROH, the Blue Cross logistic regression model had the highest area under the receiving operator characteristics curve (0.862) based on the result of 10-fold cross-validation. The Blue Cross random decision forests model had the highest positive predictive value (49.0%) and positive likelihood ratio (61.4), but sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive values, and negative likelihood ratios were similar across all four models.

Limitations: The Blue Cross ROH models were developed and evaluated using BCBSLA data, and predictive power may fluctuate if applied to other databases.

Conclusions: The predictability of the Blue Cross models show how member-specific, regional data can be used to accurately identify patients with a high ROH, which may allow healthcare workers to intervene earlier and subsequently reduce the healthcare burden for patients and providers.     

A New Look at the Longitudinal Relationship Between Motor Carrier Financial Performance and Safety

Motor carrier safety impacts the well‐being of the traveling public and the economic well‐being of the shippers who entrust motor carriers with safely transporting freight. Shippers are affected by motor carrier safety due to accidents damaging their cargo and disrupting their customers’ operations. One characteristic frequently theorized to predict motor carrier safety is motor carriers financial performance. However, the literature offers mixed evidence linking motor carrier financial performance to safety. This does not help practitioners or policy makers and necessitates research to resolve these inconsistent findings, which we undertake in this research. We extend previous work by developing a theoretical framework based on strain theory to explain why both absolute (static) financial performance and year‐to‐year change in financial performance should uniquely affect carrier safety. We test our hypotheses by fitting mixed‐effects models to a repeated‐measure, longitudinal database of publically traded motor carrier financial performance and safety measures. Results indicate that financial performance measures uniquely affect carrier safety. These findings attempt to resolve the inconsistencies in the past literature and, carry important implications for researchers studying motor carrier safety, motor carrier managers, shippers, and policy makers.     

Risk and crisis communication narratives in response to rapidly emerging diseases

The uncertainty inherent in crises can create a narrative space that is often filled by multiple interpretations about both what is happening and what steps should be taken to resolve the crisis. As more information becomes known, these competing crisis narratives gradually merge into a dominant narrative about the crisis, lessons learned from it, and recommendations for the future. This case study examines the swine industry’s response to the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) outbreak. The virus spread rapidly throughout the industry and, in a matter of months, had killed approximately 10% of the U.S. swine population. This analysis examines the crisis communication that ensued during that time. More specifically, 13 specialists representing the National Pork Board, American Association of Swine Veterinarians, veterinarians highly active in treating PEDv, university extension agents, and academic researchers were interviewed for this study. A narrative analysis of the interview content revealed that communication efforts made by swine industry leaders successfully shifted the PEDv story from that of competing narratives to a dominant narrative that helped resolve the crisis efficiently. This success is attributed, in part, to effective use of all available industry resources for both conducting research and sharing information rapidly through pre-established communication networks and widely read resources. Results of this narrative analysis reveal a key recommendation that maybe generalizable to similar crisis events. That is, an effective crisis narrative should focus not only on what protective actions to take, but also on a clear explanation regarding the nature of the crisis. Moreover, such explanations must be translated intelligibly to diverse non-scientific publics and provide a compelling rationale for why the recommended actions are vital.     

The role of domestic financial and economic development in financial integration

Using two-step system generalized method-of-moments on an unbalanced panel of 75 countries from 1996 to 2010, this study shows that financial development’s effect on the pace of a country’s financial integration is conditional on economic development. Indeed, the results validate the observation that greater financial development conditioned on similar levels of economic development should precede closer financial integration.     

Response and Recovery: Does the Delay Between a Crisis and an IMF Loan Affect the Length of Recovery?

International Advances in Economic Research -     

A tale of two gravities*

The flows of traded goods across countries are known to follow a gravity pattern: Their volumes are greater between countries that are larger in size and closer to each other. We find a similar pattern in the flows of territories across countries between 1870 and 2008. During this period, countries experienced inflows and outflows of territories, mirroring the international flows of goods. We find three other pieces of critical evidence supporting that the two flows interact through similar economic motives. Our findings illustrate the usefulness of international trade models for understanding international politics.     

Behavioral Factors in Equity Allocation Decisions: A Large-Scale Experimental Study With Context

Traditional models of rational behavior struggle to explain how individuals allocate their money over a variety of financial instruments, including annuities, the stock market, and risk-free bonds. This study uses a large and diverse data set from an investment experiment that is rich in context and captures some important features of actual financial decision making. The focus of the article is to build on the literature documenting behavioral explanations for investment choices by studying the equity allocation decision across different financial tools. The authors find evidence that risk aversion, inertia, and excessive extrapolation are associated with investment behavior even when it is clear that return rates are independent across decision-making periods. Further, subjects have an asymmetric response to positive versus negative returns. In addition to having a novel experimental design, the authors also examine behavior before and after the recent financial crisis. The authors find that the financial crisis indirectly affects the first-stage annuity take-up rate in the experiments vis-à-vis a higher average level of risk aversion after the start of the crisis.     

A new president in the White House: implications for Canadian agricultural trade

Canadian agricultural trade has experienced several volatile periods over the past 15 years. The Great Recession (2007–2009), the 2015–2016 global trade slowdown, unilateral policy actions by the United States against key trade allies and the multilateral system more generally, and the impacts of the Covid‐19 pandemic are among the most significant events during this period. Given the close integration of Canadian and US agricultural markets, the recent US election is likely to again impact the relative competitiveness of Canadian agricultural exports. While many observers suggest President‐elect Joe Biden will return to normal times regarding multilateral cooperation with key allies and international institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the new administration is likely to face headwinds given the significant fraying of ties with key trading partners and allies due to disruptive actions taken by his predecessor. This article provides an overview of potential implications of a Biden administration for Canada's agricultural trade. We start by reviewing recent trade shock events affecting Canada's agricultural trade with a particular focus on trade actions taken by the United States. Relevant components of the President‐elect Biden's platform, considerations affecting the implementation of this platform, and the implications of this for Canadian agricultural trade are considered.     

Consuming abjection: an examination of death and disgust in the black metal scene

This paper examines abjection in the context of the extreme (black) metal scene. Moving beyond the ritual-heavy, community work that dominates much of the death-related consumption literature, our study pieces together death, violence, misanthropy, blood and social tensions to create novel insights into the consumption of disgust. Based on our interview and participant observation methodologies, we present work that explains how death-oriented consumption and abjection is manifested for some consumers and actually plays a role as an affront to mainstream orientations and the greater social order. Additionally, our work indicates that the use of abjection can be seen as a boundary and source of delineation between the “acceptable” and the “unacceptable” in society.