The New Deal Order

This essay explores how historians and others have used theconcept of political economy, arguing that its application toUnited States history between the 1920s and 1940s helps to clarifythe relationships between politics, the economy, and liberalism.     

Sampling methodology and fieldwork changes in the October Household Surveys and Labour Force Surveys

The 1999 October Household Survey was the first time that Statistics South Africa introduced a master sample of Enumeration Areas. There were several important changes in sampling and fieldworker practice that accompanied the introduction of the master sample of Enumeration Areas, which have not been systematically documented and which make comparability of the surveys undertaken by Statistics South Africa before and after this time difficult. We document these changes in this research note and provide evidence that these changes were partly responsible for the odd trends in the total number of single-person households estimated from the October Household Surveys and the Labour Force Surveys, as well as rapid increases in employment, in the late 1990s.     

Learning hope and optimism: classmate experiences and adolescent development

This article explores individual and contextual factors related to the development of hopeful attitudes during adolescence using a nationally representative study. A key focus is on the experiences of mistreatment by adults, both for the adolescent and his/her classmates. While all types of individual experiences with mistreatment reduce adolescent hopefulness, mistreatment domains most likely to be visible (i.e. physical abuse) by classmates also reduce adolescent hopefulness. This relationship is robust to the inclusion of more general environmental factors through school-level fixed effects, suggesting both a causal explanation and a typically unmeasured spillover effect of violence against children. Other types of mistreatment, such as neglect and material hardship, do not show spillover effects.     

Short-Run Demand and Uncertainty of Outcome in Major League Baseball

This article explores the importance of uncertainty in athletic contests. We use a probit model and Monte Carlo simulations to forecast game outcomes in Major League Baseball. Simulations are necessary to understand fully the preferences that consumers have towards uncertainty in sports. We use these simulations to estimate demand using attendance data for regular season games. Our findings show that when game, playoff, and consecutive season uncertainty measures are all included in estimating attendance for individual games, only the metrics that are related to the home team’s standing are significant. These metrics include the change in performance from the previous season and the importance of the game in qualifying for the playoffs.     

Informed Trading in Corporate Bonds Prior to Earnings Announcements

This paper examines the information content of corporate bond trading prior to earnings announcements using data from both NAIC and TRACE. We find that the direction of pre‐announcement bond trading is closely related to earnings surprises. This link is most evident prior to negative news and in high‐yield bonds. Further, abnormal bond trading during the pre‐announcement period can help predict both earnings surprises and post‐announcement bond returns. Such predictive ability of bond trading largely originates from institutional‐sized trades and is concentrated in the issuer's most actively traded bond. Finally, even after accounting for transactions costs, informed bond trading can generate significant net profits, especially prior to the release of bad news.     

Weather derivatives valuation and market price of weather risk

This paper has two objectives: (1) to propose and implement a valuation framework for temperature derivatives (a specific class of weather derivatives); and (2) to study the significance of the market price of weather risk. The objectives are accomplished by generalizing the Lucas model of 1978 to include the weather as another fundamental source of uncertainty in the economy. Daily temperature is modeled by incorporating such key properties as seasonal cycles and uneven variations throughout the year. The temperature variable is related to the aggregate dividend or output through both contemporaneous and lagged correlations, as corroborated by the data. Numerical analysis shows that the market price of weather risk is significant for temperature derivatives. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:1065–1089, 2004     

Managements' views on share buy‐backs: an Australian survey

Share buy‐backs are a relatively new concept in the Australian business environment. This study surveys managements' motivations and various other aspects concerning share buy‐back activity. The results reveal that these motivations vary across the five different types of buy‐backs. For on‐market buy‐backs the most relevant motivations are to improve financial performance (i.e., earnings per share) and financial position (i.e., net asset backing per share) followed by signalling of future expectations or underpricing. Interestingly, managements' response regarding the relevant motivations is similar regardless of whether their companies had conducted a buy‐back or not. This provides evidence of widespread support for the relevant motivations. In addition, Australian managers believe that they are familiar with the potential benefits and legislative requirements of buy‐backs, but that their shareholders often do not understand or are not favourably disposed towards buy‐back events. Finally, two major explanations are identified for the initial conservatism towards buy‐backs. Those explanations are (i) legal complexity and cost and (ii) the perceived negative disposition of the sharemarket towards buy‐backs.     

Market Size and Investment Performance of Defaulted Bonds and Bank Loans: 1987–2001

The defaulted and distressed, public and private debt markets in the United States swelled to a record $680 billion (face value) at the end of 2001. The market value of this 'niche' segment was approximately $400 billion.
Defaulted security investors enjoyed an excellent year on average, as returns in 2001 were 17.5 per cent on bonds, 13.9 per cent on bank loans, and 15.6 per cent combined defaulted public bonds and private bank loans.
The Altman–New York University Salomon Center Index of Defaulted Bonds grew to over 200 individual issues and a face value of $56.2 billion; the market value was only $11.8 billion. The market–to–face value ratio of the Bond Index grew somewhat to 0.21 from 0.15 one year ago, but remained at a relatively low figure. The face value of our Defaulted Bank Loan Index also grew to $44.7 billion and the market–to–face value ratio remained quite low at 0.53.
The recovery rate on defaulted bonds (price just after default) was very low at 25 cents on the dollar; likewise, the bank loan recovery rate in 2001 was also relatively low at 55 cents on the dollar. With new defaulted bonds rising in 2001 to a record $63.6 billion (default rate of 9.80 per cent) and the default outlook for 2002 high investment opportunities should abound in the distressed debt market.
Indications are that distressed investors (both old and new) are successfully raising funds because investor expectations are buoyant.
(J.E.L.: G21, G33).     

Endogenous risk in weed control management

Weed control decisions are modeled in an endogenous risk framework where a producer invests in self-insurance and self-protection to reduce the severity of a realized pest infestation, or reduce the likelihood the infestation occurs. Self-insurance and self-protection are risk-reducing technologies that capture both the type and quantity of herbicides used. We supply conditions to unambiguously sign the effects of an increase in the probability of application or effectiveness failure and increased application or effectiveness uncertainty on optimal herbicide choices. If self-protection and self-insurance are stochastic substitutes, non-point source pollution policies targeted to reduce herbicide loadings can increase the use of more persistent herbicides. Policies that decrease loadings by reducing total mass may induce a substitution to herbicides more damaging or more likely to be transported to sensitive areas.