Legal form and risk exposure in Spanish firms

Abstract. It is well-known that the legal form adopted by a firm determines the type of legal responsibility borne by its owners in case of bankruptcy. In this paper we argue that a firm under a limited liability status should be characterized by a higher than average bankruptcy probability, which ultimately captures their risk exposure when output is affected by exogenous shocks. To test this prediction we extend Lee's (1976) switching regressions model to a panel dataset of 1313 Spanish firms from 1990–1994, separating them into corporate and entrepreneurial forms (with/without limited liability, respectively). We consider both random effects and fixed effects panel data models, taking into account the potential endogeneity between risk exposure and the legal form choice. Our results confirm the hypothesis that firms under limited liability have significant higher risk exposure than firms under unlimited liability. The authors gratefully acknowledge valuable suggestions from Maite Martínez-Granado, A. Jorge Padilla, Javier Suárez and two anonymous referees. Data and financial support provided by the Fundación Empresa Pública (Madrid) and comments from participants at seminars held at CEMFI, Simposio de Análisis Económico and Universidad de Vigo are also sincerely appreciated. Mr. Campos particularly acknowledges research funding by the University of Las Palmas.     

An alternative approach to estimating demand: Neural network regression with conditional volatility for high frequency air passenger arrivals

In this paper we provide an alternative approach to analyze the demand for international tourism in the Balearic Islands, Spain, by using a neural network model that incorporates time-varying conditional volatility. We consider daily air passenger arrivals to Palma de Mallorca, Ibiza and Mahon, which are located in the islands of Mallorca, Ibiza and Menorca, respectively, as a proxy for international tourism demand for the Balearic Islands. Spain is a world leader in terms of total international tourist arrivals and receipts, and Mallorca is one of the most popular destinations in Spain. For tourism management and marketing, it is essential to forecast high frequency international tourist demand accurately. As it is important to provide sensible international tourism demand forecast intervals, it is also necessary to model their variances accurately. Moreover, time-varying variances provide useful information regarding the risks associated with variations in international tourist arrivals.     

On the contribution of eco-innovation features to a circular economy: A microlevel quantitative approach

The circular economy (CE) and eco-innovation (EI) are two concepts deemed instrumental in achieving a sustainable transition. They have been proposed in the academic literature and by practitioners and have acquired very high public policy relevance, being endorsed by policymakers and ultimately leading to regulations supporting them. It has been argued that both concepts are compatible and interrelated and that EI is instrumental in achieving the CE. However, little is known about how different EI features contribute to the CE at the microlevel. This article tries to cover this gap. Its aim is to assess and quantify the causal relationship between different EI features and the CE with the help of a unique dataset of small- and medium-sized firms in Spain and an econometric analysis. Our results show that only systemic EIs contribute to a global CE, whereas other EI types such as component additions or small changes in existing production processes could even be barriers to high levels of circularity. It is found out that technological novelty is not relevant for reaching the CE. The results support the understanding of how EIs enable a transition to the CE. Care should be taken not to promote incremental EIs that do not only achieve low (or no) circularity but that effectively lock-in the economic system in solutions that entail a barrier to the achievement of high-level circularity.     

Uninsured idiosyncratic risk, liquidity constraints and aggregate fluctuations

Summary. I study the role played by uninsured idiosyncratic risk and liquidity constraints in the propagation of aggregate fluctuations. To this purpose, I compare the aggregate fluctuations of two model economies that differ in their insurance technologies only. In one of these model economies liquidity constrained households vary their holdings of a nominally denominated asset in order to buffer an uninsured idiosyncratic shock to their individual production opportunities. In the other economy every idiosyncratic component of risk can be costlessly insured. I find that the limited insurance technology implies fluctuations in output that are 20% larger, fluctuations in hours relative to output that are 9% larger, fluctuations in consumption relative to output that are 18% smaller, and a correlation of hours and productivity that is 15% smaller than those that obtain under the full insurance technology. Received: March 6, 1996; revised version August 15, 1996     

Nonparametric estimation of convergence of interest rates: Effects on bond pricing

We present and estimate a model of short term interest rate dynamics where we incorporate the convergent behavior of interest rates implied by the transition to EMU. We apply this model to data of two EMU countries - Spain and Italy - and compare the performance, in terms of accuracy of bond pricing, of this two-factor convergence model with alternative specifications. Nonparametric techniques are used for the estimation of the processes. The two-factor model which accounts for the convergence with Europe of the domestic economies, obtains better results, especially for short-term assets, than alternative models. The results of the nonparametric specifications are shown to be significantly better than those of parametric alternatives.JEL Classification: E43, C14We would like to thank Adrian Pagan and Eduardo Schwartz for their invaluable feedback, encouragement and patience. We also would like to thank the editor, two anonymous referees and participants at the Symposium of Economic Analysis (Barcelona, December 1999), the Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society (Sydney, July 1999), the 2000 European Meeting of the Financial Management Association (Edinburgh, July 2000) and seminars at the Australian National University, Canberra, and at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, for their comments and suggestions. All errors remain our sole responsibility. Financial assistance from the Fundación Ramó n Areces, Madrid, Spain, and the Asociación de Amigos de la Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain, is gratefully acknowledged.     

Automatic stabilizers, fiscal rules and macroeconomic stability

This paper analyzes the effect of the fiscal structure upon the trade-off between inflation and output stabilization induced by technological shocks in a DGE model with nominal and real rigidities that also integrates a rich menu of fiscal variables as well as a target on the debt to output ratio. The channels through which fiscal policy affects macroeconomic stability include supply-side effects of distortionary taxes, the procyclical behavior of public spending induced by fiscal rules and the conventional effect of automatic stabilizers operating through disposable (permanent) income. The paper investigates these channels and concludes that, contrary to what has been found in RBC models, distortionary taxes tend to reduce output volatility relative to lump-sum taxes when significant rigidities are present. We also study the stabilization effect of alternative (distortionary) tax structures and find that these are only relevant if substantial rigidities are present.     

Economic inequality in Spain: the european community household panel dataset

This article uses data from the 1998 European Community Household Panel to study economic inequality in Spain. It reports data on the Spanish distributions of income, labor income, and capital income, and on related features of inequality, such as age, employment status, educational attainment, and marital status. It also reports data on the income mobility of Spanish households, and data on income inequality in other European countries and in the US. We find that income, earnings, and, especially, capital income are very unequally distributed in Spain and that economic inequality in Spain is well above the European average.     

Escaping high mortality

This paper develops an economic analysis of mortality to account for the mortality decline during the demographic transition. We propose a unified growth model in which there is intra- and intergenerational health transmission: parental health affects child survival and investments in early life improve health over the entire life-cycle. Based on data from England and Wales between 1640 and 2000, we show that the role of economic changes in mortality is larger than previously estimated. As in current estimates, contemporary income has a minor impact on mortality change. Most of the economic influences, however, are unaccounted for by contemporary relationships.      

Fiscal consolidation in Europe: has it worked?

The aim of this article is to shed some light on the issue of fiscal austerity within Europe. We focus specifically on the 2008Q1–2014Q4 period, and on the effect of shocks to government expenditure and taxes on unemployment, controlling for other macro factors. We find that expenditure contractions may be detrimental for employment.     

Consistent order selection with strongly dependent data and its application to efficient estimation

Order selection based on criteria by Akaike (IEEE Trans. Automat. Control AC-19 (1974) 716), AIC, Schwarz (Ann. Stat. (1978) 461), BIC or Hannan and Quinn's (J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B (1979) 190) HIC is often applied in empirical examples. They have been used in the context of order selection of weakly dependent ARMA models, AR models with unit or explosive roots and in the context of regression or distributed lag regression models for weakly dependent data. On the other hand, it has been observed that data exhibits the so-called strong dependence in many areas. Because the interest to this type of data, our main objective in this paper is to examine order selection for a distributed lag regression model that covers in a unified form weak and strong dependence. To that end, and because the possible adverse properties of the aforementioned criteria, we propose a criterion function based on the decomposition of the variance of the innovations of the model in terms of their frequency components. Assuming that the order of the model is finite, say p₀, we show that the proposed criterion consistently estimates p₀. In addition, we show that adaptive estimation for the parameters of the model is possible without knowledge of p₀. Finally, a small Monte-Carlo experiment is included to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed criterion.