Exchange rate and inflation dynamics in dollarized economies

We use a panel of a hundred-plus countries with differing degrees of dollarization to perform an empirical analysis of the effects on inflation of exchange rate depreciations. The results qualify the common view that countries with higher dollarization exhibit higher inflation pass-through. We show that large depreciations tend to generate a negative impact on the pass-through coefficient, this impact being more intense the higher the level of dollarization of the economy. We interpret this as evidence that, in highly dollarized economies, the classic inflationary effects of a real depreciation—higher internal demand and imported inflation—can be offset or diminished by both the larger financial costs and the balance-sheet effect, especially if the depreciation is “large”. Additionally, the exchange rate regime is shown to matter: countries with fixed exchange rates suffer more noticeably the balance-sheet effects of large depreciations.     

The effect of new product development techniques on new product success in Spanish firms

The rate of market and technological changes has accelerated in the last years. This turbulent environment requires new methods and techniques to bring successful new products to the marketplace. Much attention has focused on new development techniques, but little empirical research has been conducted to validate these techniques. In this study, the relationship between popular new development techniques and new product success is examined. Our findings suggest that only a subset of these popular techniques is significantly related with new product success in Spanish firms. The study also identifies the main contributors to new product development (NPD) effectiveness in Spanish firms.     

Unobserved Heterogeneity,Exit Rates,and Re‐Employment Wages

Exit rates from unemployment and re‐employment wages decline over a period of unemployment, after controlling for worker observable characteristics. We study the role of unobserved heterogeneity in an economy with asymmetric information and directed search. We show that the unique equilibrium is separating and that skilled workers have more job opportunities and higher wages. The composition of the unemployed varies with the duration of unemployment, so average exit rates and wages fall with time. The separating equilibrium relies on performance‐related pay schemes and the ability of firms to commit to renting an input that is complementary to worker skills.     

Endogenous monetary policy and the liquidity effect

We compare the transmission mechanism of exogenous and endogenous monetary policies in a calibrated small open economy model with nominal and real rigidities. Under an exogenous monetary policy rule it takes implausible values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the price adjustment costs to generate the liquidity and overshooting effects. Endogenous rules with strong feedback to inflation and output help to reproduce the response of the nominal interest and exchange rates to unanticipated monetary policy shocks that characterize the transmission mechanism of standard sticky price models. The liquidty and overshooting effects are always obtained when the model is augmented with a Taylor interest rate rule.JEL Classification: E32, E43Javier Andrés acknowledges support of CICYT grant SEC2002-0026. We thank the comments of two anonymous referees and the editor, Jordi Caballé, to an earlier version of the paper. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not represent the view of the Banco de España.     

Corruption and total factor productivity: level or growth effects?

This paper adopts a productivity-based perspective in order to study how corruption conditions the efficiency levels of the economies and their TFP growth rate. It attempts to identify the channels through which corruption can influence productivity growth, whether by conditioning improvements in relative efficiency levels or by shifting the production frontier. The results point out that corruption negatively affects both the levels of efficiency at which the economies perform and the growth rate of TFP, suggesting that the negative impact of corruption on technological progress manifest through its influence on human capital.     

Nonparametric estimation of convergence of interest rates: Effects on bond pricing

We present and estimate a model of short term interest rate dynamics where we incorporate the convergent behavior of interest rates implied by the transition to EMU. We apply this model to data of two EMU countries - Spain and Italy - and compare the performance, in terms of accuracy of bond pricing, of this two-factor convergence model with alternative specifications. Nonparametric techniques are used for the estimation of the processes. The two-factor model which accounts for the convergence with Europe of the domestic economies, obtains better results, especially for short-term assets, than alternative models. The results of the nonparametric specifications are shown to be significantly better than those of parametric alternatives.JEL Classification: E43, C14We would like to thank Adrian Pagan and Eduardo Schwartz for their invaluable feedback, encouragement and patience. We also would like to thank the editor, two anonymous referees and participants at the Symposium of Economic Analysis (Barcelona, December 1999), the Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society (Sydney, July 1999), the 2000 European Meeting of the Financial Management Association (Edinburgh, July 2000) and seminars at the Australian National University, Canberra, and at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, for their comments and suggestions. All errors remain our sole responsibility. Financial assistance from the Fundación Ramó n Areces, Madrid, Spain, and the Asociación de Amigos de la Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain, is gratefully acknowledged.     

Automatic stabilizers, fiscal rules and macroeconomic stability

This paper analyzes the effect of the fiscal structure upon the trade-off between inflation and output stabilization induced by technological shocks in a DGE model with nominal and real rigidities that also integrates a rich menu of fiscal variables as well as a target on the debt to output ratio. The channels through which fiscal policy affects macroeconomic stability include supply-side effects of distortionary taxes, the procyclical behavior of public spending induced by fiscal rules and the conventional effect of automatic stabilizers operating through disposable (permanent) income. The paper investigates these channels and concludes that, contrary to what has been found in RBC models, distortionary taxes tend to reduce output volatility relative to lump-sum taxes when significant rigidities are present. We also study the stabilization effect of alternative (distortionary) tax structures and find that these are only relevant if substantial rigidities are present.     

The effect of output specification on the optimal policy design for electric utilities

We show that the manner in which the production process is seen when analyzing data on electricity production has an impact on the policy conclusions. In particular, we show that the different specifications of output found in the literature can generate quite diverse views regarding regulation and optimal industry structure, even when using the same data to estimate a cost function. To illustrate this we use information gathered from the Spanish Electric Industry and analyze electricity activities following three approaches: the traditional aggregate activity view, the multistage model and the multioutput-multistage approach. We estimate the degree of economies of scale S and derive marginal costs for all models, plus economies of vertical integration (EVI) for the last two ones. Then we compare these results and verify that the aggregate analysis can mislead policymaking.     

Economic inequality in Spain: the european community household panel dataset

This article uses data from the 1998 European Community Household Panel to study economic inequality in Spain. It reports data on the Spanish distributions of income, labor income, and capital income, and on related features of inequality, such as age, employment status, educational attainment, and marital status. It also reports data on the income mobility of Spanish households, and data on income inequality in other European countries and in the US. We find that income, earnings, and, especially, capital income are very unequally distributed in Spain and that economic inequality in Spain is well above the European average.     

Exchange Rate Passthrough Effects and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: What is the Relationship?

Several studies have shown that over the past 10 years the passthrough effect from currency depreciation into domestic inflation has been decreasing in emerging economies that adopted inflation targeting (IT) during the mid and late 1990s. Therefore the nominal exchange rate effect on domestic inflation is becoming less of an issue for these countries. The literature has offered different explanations for these declines but so far they have not been directly related to the adoption of IT. This paper shows that lower passthrough effects can also be the result of the implementation of an IT regime and argues, contrary to previous studies, that the effects of the nominal exchange rate on inflation are still a relevant issue for emerging IT countries. The reason for this is that the empirical evidence offered for the lower passthrough misses the nature of the relationship between inflation and the nominal exchange rate under IT.