Shortages and economic policy

In this paper, we use an input-output framework to model an economy experiencing a shortage of a primary product or intermediate good. We show that when a shortage is combined with factor price rigidities, the reduction in consumption and employment will be larger than is necessary. In such cases, there is a need for government intervention, to manage the shortage and make the best of a bad situation. We show that the impact of a shortage can be ameliorated by changes in the composition of output, brought about by direct allocation of the scarce input or by differential sales taxes. The traditional instruments of monetary and fiscal policy are shown to be of little use in dealing with shortages.     

Emergent complex systems

Complex systems are becoming the focus of important innovative research and application in many areas, reflecting the progressive displacement of classical physics and the emergence of a new and creative role for mathematics. This article makes a distinction between ordinary and emergent complexity and argues that a full analysis requires dialectical thinking. In so doing the authors aim to provide a philosophical foundation for post-normal science. The exploratory analysis developed here is complementary to those conducted with a more formal, mathematical approach, and begins to articulate what lies on the other side of that somewhat indistinct divide, the conceptual space called emergent complexity.     

非均衡复苏下的货币政策调整

实现充分就业和物价稳定是美联储货币政策的坚定目标.当前,美国劳动力市场持续好转,就业稳步恢复,但长期失业率仍然居高不下,劳动力市场依然疲软.与此同时,随着美国经济的快速复苏,通货膨胀急剧上升.然而,根据美联储评估情况可知,全面通货膨胀尚未形成,长期通货膨胀预期基本稳定,此轮通货膨胀是暂时的,历史经验表明,如果为了应对暂时性通货膨胀而收紧货币政策可能弊大于利.因此,美联储将继续实施当前资产购买计划,直到充分就业和物价稳定取得实质性进展.但即使结束该计划,美联储仍将继续支持宽松的金融环境,未来减少资产购买也不是加息的信号.     

The Impact of Consumer Behavior and Service Perceptions of a Major Sport Tourism Event

The Honolulu Marathon has consistently provided a positive economic impact to the state of Hawaii's economy. The purpose of this study was to assess the economic benefits of the 2007 Honolulu Marathon by runners from outside the state of Hawaii and their traveling companions on the city of Honolulu. Another purpose of this study was to compare the service perceptions of Japanese participants with those of English-speaking participants, with a focus on examining opportunities to increase economic contributions from the two groups. The 2007 Honolulu Marathon is the third largest marathon in the USA and six largest in the world, with over 27,000 runners registered. Only the New York City Marathon (34,729) and the Chicago Marathon (32,332) are larger. Of the 27,000 registered participants of the Honolulu Marathon, 19,500 runners are residents from outside the state of Hawaii. The data used in this study were collected by distributing a research instrument to marathon participants. The instrument consisted of 18 questions regarding length of stay, accommodation, and the amount of money spent by the marathon participants for food, lodging, souvenirs and other miscellaneous items while attending the marathon activities in Honolulu. A total of 1,643 participants completed the surveys for this study. Examination and analysis of these results will prove to be very helpful in determining the economic benefit the Honolulu Marathon has on Honolulu and the state of Hawaii.

The Honolulu Marathon accounted for an economic impact of $108,890,000 that generated $3.7 million in state taxes. The opportunity for internationally diverse participatory sports events to increase tourism substantially, especially in the state of Hawaii, suggests that further research in this area is necessary.     

Telephone conferencing in administrative hearings

A research summary of the Fair Hearing Project underway at the University of New Mexico aimed at evaluation the use of telephone conferencing in administrative hearings.     

Wanted — wise policy not restrictive regulation

This article begins by restating some familiar tenets of information processing and telecommunications theory: that our emerging post-industrial economy is becoming increasingly service-oriented with a corresponding emphasis being placed upon information-intensive activities;¹ that technical improvements in telecommunications systems are forthcoming at an almost exponential rate of increase;² that a wide array of developed or developing telecommunications systems (including computer-based word processing, cable/satellite TV, interactive video, videotext, etc) are being considered for possible application in varied settings (ranging from the home to the office to the delivery of governmental services).     

Psychological and ethical considerations when teaching futures studies

This paper explores ethical and psychological issues in teaching futures studies. A range of political, economic, religious, and philosophical assumptions are discussed in terms of how they influence one's view of the future. Special attention is given to the concept of future generations and its application in teaching about long-range implications of contemporary actions.