Evaluating generalizability and parameter consistency in learning models

A new evaluation method is proposed for comparing learning models used for predicting decisions based on experience. The method is based on the generalization of models' predictions at the individual level. First, it evaluates the ability to make a priori predictions for decisions in new tasks using parameters from different tasks performed by an individual decision-maker. Second, it evaluates the consistency of parameters estimated in different tasks performed by the same person. We use this method to examine two rules for updating past experience with payoff feedback: The Delta rule, where only the chosen option is updated; and a Decay-Reinforcement rule, where additionally, non-chosen options are discounted. The results reveal that although the Decay-Reinforcement rule fits the data better, it has poor generality and parameter consistency at the individual level. The current method thus improves the ability to select models based on their correspondence to consistent characteristics within individual decision-makers.     

Henry George, Emile de Laveleye, and the Issue of Peasant Proprietorship

A bstract .   In Emile de Laveleye's demonstration that communal landholding was universally a characteristic of primitive societies, Henry George saw evidence of a golden age before the development of private ownership of land. Though he agreed with George that unequal access to land was a major cause of the social evil of poverty, de Laveleye did not consider it the sole cause of poverty. Where George would nationalize land rent, de Laveleye would make private ownership more widespread; and he faulted George for giving too little attention to the question of how government would use the revenue from a land tax, and for failing to consider the concentration of capital as a cause of poverty.     

Does a Food-themed TV Drama Affect Perceptions of National Image and Intention to Visit a Country? An Empirical Study of Korea TV Drama

A Korean TV drama series (Daejanggeum), with a story line focusing on Korean food, was exported to over 50 countries resulting in a surprisingly popular mega-hit. The popularity of this TV drama, transcended across countries and cultural boundaries, has brought an enhancement to the national image of Korea or national brand, and led to a surge in sales of Korean industrial products, as well as an increased interest in Korean tourism resources. This study attempted to empirically investigate the effects of the TV drama series on the national image and intention to visit Korea as perceived by Chinese diners. Interestingly, the “peculiarity of Korean culture” was a main reason for preferring Korean cuisine, which positively affected the perception of the national image and the intention to visit Korea to partake in food tourism. Further, this study suggests that future studies are needed to compare the results of this research according to national, ethnic, regional, or religious boundaries. The comparison of other ethnic groups will be helpful for establishing different marketing strategies according to the different cohorts with different consumption patterns.     

The science of ‘what-if?’

An appropriate response to the new challenges to science will require more than new explicit goals and social organisation. New leading questions will be appropriate. The traditional questions of ‘what/how?’ for research and ‘how/why?’ for the design fields, will be supplemented by ‘what-if?’. This previously had its place in exploratory phases of all research; now it will become an essential component of ‘post-normal’ science. Its form precludes the dogmatic and exclusive styles which have hitherto been dominant in science as applied to policy problems; and it lends itself to open enquiry and public participation.     

THE RISE OF FUTURE FLOW ASSET SECURITIZATIONS

Since their debut in 1987, future flow asset securitizations (FFS) have found growing acceptance in markets worldwide. FFS are defined simply as the forward sale of hard currency receivables to be generated in the future through normal business operations by an exporter of goods or services. The most widely used receivables include export receivables for corporations, and credit card vouchers, electronic transfers, and paper-based remittances for financial institutions. While companies in emerging markets have led the way in embracing FFS, the instrument's versatility has also made it valuable in industrialized countries where both companies and governments have begun to employ these structures for a variety of purposes.
This article surveys the use of future flow asset securitizations in both emerging and highly developed markets, outlines its basic structure and applications, and evaluates the benefits of the structure to each party to the transaction. Among the most significant advantages in emerging markets is the financial discipline that countries and companies alike must practice in order to qualify for a future flow asset securitization. The authors present three cases where FFS have been employed successfully by companies in Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey.
The risk management features of FFS make this instrument particularly valuable in times of economic stress. In fact, no investment-grade FFS transactions have defaulted, despite volatile economic conditions in many countries where FFS have been issued. The authors predict that FFS will continue to find broad applications in a wide variety of markets.     

Dynamic Equilibrium with Liquidity Constraints

This article studies an intertemporal economy with liquidityconstrained and unconstrained individuals. We use a stoppingtime approach to solve the finite horizonconstrained consumptionportfolio problem with constant relative risk aversion and toexamine the structure of equilibrium. The impact of the constrainton the optimal consumption and the financing portfolio is assessed.The equilibrium state price density is related to the exerciseboundary of an American-style contingent claim with nonlinearpayoff. This stopping time characterization enables us to provethe existence of an equilibrium and can be implemented numerically.Properties of equilibrium bond and stock returns are examined.     

A multi-agent-based negotiation support system for distributed transmission cost allocation

We have developed a multi-agent system (MAS), based on the network flow model and KQML, called MASCAN, to support negotiations in the cost allocation of network transmission. This is very important to industries that have different entities connected with lines or pipes, such as the Internet and telecommunications. Such an approach is especially useful to the utility industries, such as electricity and gas, and the transportation industry. In the system, each agent represents a node in a network, for example supplier or consumer. Agents do not receive any centralized controls or information from centralized sources to guarantee autonomy–a key requirement for the agent. In this all decisions are made locally based on the rules or knowledge that each agent has or captured to communicate or coordinate with other agents for the cheapest path under fair-play requirements. We also assume that each agent is rational, that is, one of the goals or objectives of agent decisions or movements is to minimize costs or increase profits. The solution to cost allocation is to search for the equilibrium point of a non-cooperative game subject to the given constraints, for example network capacity. We applied MASCAN to model and support the negotiation of cost allocation in power transmission, and the results and how this approach supported the process of negotiation are perceived to be closer to the real-world negotiation and the outcomes were accepted more easily by the participants. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Industrial publicity: One of the best promotional tools

One of the most frequently forgotten and misunderstood promotional tools in industrial marketing is publicity. Yet most surveys rank editorial material in trade journals as one of the most important sources of information used by industrial customers in making buying decisions and evaluating products. This article discusses how industrial marketers can use publicity as an effective promotional tool, with emphasis on its major advantages, namely, high credibility and low cost per contact.