Combining predictive distributions for the statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts

Statistical post-processing techniques are now used widely for correcting systematic biases and errors in the calibration of ensemble forecasts obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. A standard approach is the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method, which results in a predictive distribution that is given by a single parametric law, with parameters that depend on the ensemble members. This article assesses the merits of combining multiple EMOS models based on different parametric families. In four case studies with wind speed and precipitation forecasts from two ensemble prediction systems, we investigate the performances of state of the art forecast combination methods and propose a computationally efficient approach for determining linear pool combination weights. We study the performance of forecast combination compared to that of the theoretically superior but cumbersome estimation of a full mixture model, and assess which degree of flexibility of the forecast combination approach yields the best practical results for post-processing applications.     

Effect of Business Group Affiliation on Firm Internationalization: The Case of India Under Reforms

The authors investigate how diversified business groups influence the structural reform–firm strategy relations given its effect on strategic choice and its implementation in a large emerging economy: India. By integrating business group, industrial organization, and international business literature, the authors predict considerable differences in the exporting behavior of business group–affiliated firms on the basis of their market competitiveness and governance dynamics. The authors test their predictions empirically with longitudinal data of 6,119 Indian firms over a 21-year period starting from 1991–1992 to 2011–2012 and find support for most of the hypotheses. These findings suggest that knowledge of the heterogeneity within business groups are essential for understanding the response of business group affiliates in light of the progression of reform process in India. This study thus contributes to a more complete conceptual understanding of the strategic responses of promarket reforms of business group affiliates in emerging economies.     

Going private transactions,bondholder returns,and wealth transfer effects

We examine how buyout activity and deal characteristics drive bondholder returns and the wealth transfer effects between bondholders and stockholders in going private transactions from 1981 to 2006. We find that various deal characteristics are major determinants of the cross-sectional variation in bondholder returns. In particular, a single private equity acquirer mitigates bondholder losses. On the other hand, bondholders have larger losses when a reputable buyout firm is involved in the deal. Bondholders experience losses in the 1980s and 2000s, but enjoy gains in the 1990s. Our findings remain robust to consideration of deal financing, relative cost of credit, and level of market overheating. We find a negative and significant relationship between stockholder and bondholder wealth effects, which supports the wealth transfer hypothesis.     

Disability and Discrimination - a UK Perspective

"Discrimination on the grounds of disability is seldom malicious, but stems more from a lack of understanding." A disabled businessman explores the need for businesses to cultivate and implement greater disability awareness. After graduating in engineering, he gained his MBA from London Business School in 1992. He now works as a consultant, capitalising on his background in business management and his personal experience of disability to assist clients in developing anti-discriminatory policies and practice.     

Inflation and price setting in a natural experiment

We analyze the behavior of price setters in Poland during the transition from a planned to a market economy, using a large disaggregated data set. The size and frequency of price changes, as well as relative price variability, all increase as inflation rises. The effect of expected inflation on relative price variability is much stronger than the effect of unexpected inflation. Despite the unusual economic environment, the results are qualitatively identical, and quantitatively stronger, than those in Lach and Tsiddon [1992. Journal of Political Economy 100, 349-389].     

Social and economic changes: Poland 1989–95

The systematic transformation in Poland began with enormous expectations of the people concerning results of the re-establishment of the market economy and economic freedom. Four and a half years after the start of reform, overwhelming popular disillusionment and frustrations have caused the spectacular comeback of the post-Communists. Some of the frustrations have been rooted in the radical changes in income distribution and the growth of poverty. An even more important factor than changes in wages and other income distribution has been changes in the relative position of different professions, sectors of economic activity, and industries and regions.     

Effective Management of Own Funds in Polish Cooperative Banks

Today cooperative banks belong to the most significant financial institution in the world. Moreover, they can compete with commercial banks. The own funds of the cooperative bank are important in their activity. The main goal of this paper is to investigate how much the level of the own funds of the Polish cooperative banks influenced their efficiency. The research pertained to operating cooperative banks in Poland. The following measures of the efficiency were used in the research： return on Equity （ROE）, net profit, index C/I, and financial margin. The results of the study indicate that banks from the Quartile III （highest aggregate own funds）, had the highest net profits, the highest ROE, the lowest C/I value, the lowest ROE, and the lowest financial markups. On this basis, it remains to be recommended that banks of highest aggregate own funds continue expansion of own funds which will increase lending capacity and subsequently contribute to higher effectiveness.