Political and Institutional Factors in Regime Changes in the ERM: An Application of Duration Analysis

This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target‐zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The estimations are based on quarterly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete history of the European Monetary System. Our results suggest that both economic and political factors are important determinants of ERM currency policies. Concerning economic factors, the money supply, the real exchange rate, the interest rate in Germany and the central parity deviation would have negatively affected the duration of a given central parity, while credibility and the price level in Germany would have positively influenced such duration. Regarding political variables, elections, central bank independence and left‐wing administrations would have increased the probability of maintaining the current regime, while unstable governments would have been associated with more frequent regime changes. Moreover, we show how the political augmented model outperforms the model which just incorporates pure economic determinants, both in terms of explanatory power and goodness of fit.     

浅谈大体积混凝土防裂施工技术

文章分析了大体积混凝土裂缝产生的原因，从工程实践中介绍了防止裂缝发生的措施，可在工程实践中提供参考。     

利益相关者社会观与商业银行价值提升探讨

银行作为以资金为营运对象的特殊企业,其价值是由一系列的利益相关者投入专用性资本共同创造的,银行只有对其利益相关者的利益进行合理的满足,才能在长期中实现价值提升.本文从利益相关者基础理论出发,结合商业银行的特殊性.分析了商业银行的利益相关者做出的专用性投入对银行价值的影响情况,并在利益相关者视角下对我国商业银行的价值提升提出了建议性思路.     

Finite sample properties of maximum likelihood estimator in spatial models

We investigate the finite sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator for the spatial autoregressive model. A stochastic expansion of the score function is used to develop the second-order bias and mean squared error of the maximum likelihood estimator. We show that the results can be expressed in terms of the expectations of cross products of quadratic forms, or ratios of quadratic forms in a normal vector which can be evaluated using the top order invariant polynomial. Our numerical calculations demonstrate that the second-order behaviors of the maximum likelihood estimator depend on the degree of sparseness of the weights matrix.     

The effect of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle regimes

We study the impact of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle expansion and recession regimes using analytical, simulation and empirical methods. Analytically, we show that the X‐11 adjustment filter both reduces the magnitude of change at turning points and reduces the depth of recessions, with specific effects depending on the length of the recession. A Monte Carlo analysis using Markov‐switching models confirms these properties, with particularly undesirable effects in delaying the recognition of the end of a recession. However, seasonal adjustment can help to clarify the true regime when this is well underway. These results continue to hold when a seasonally non‐stationary process with regime‐dependent mean is misspecified as one with deterministic seasonal effects. The empirical findings, based on four coincident US business cycle indicators, reinforce the analytical and simulation results by showing that seasonal adjustment leads to the identification of longer and shallower recessions than obtained using unadjusted data. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can You Hear Me Now? Communication in Virtual Product Development Teams*

Globalization and technological advances are driving organizations to extend the boundaries of new product development (NPD) teams from traditional colocated settings to dispersed or virtual settings. Virtual NPD teams have a wide array of information and communication technologies (ICTs) at their disposal. ICTs allow team members to communicate and collaborate as they cope with the opportunities and challenges of cross‐boundary work. The purpose of this paper is to explore ICT use by members of virtual NPD teams. This study presents an exploratory test and integration of two competing perspectives of media use in virtual teams: media capacity theories and social dynamic media theories. Specifically, this paper examines the role of task type, organizational context, and ICT type as critical contingency variables affecting ICT use. It also examines how different patterns of ICT use relate to individual perceptions of team performance. The findings from this study of 184 members of virtual NPD teams in three global firms suggest that communication via ICTs in virtual NPD teams is contingent on a range of factors.     

Consumers' preference shifts under the deletion of common features with varying attractiveness: An examination of competing explanations

When necessary, marketers might delete common features of a promotional package that have also been deleted by competitors. This research examined two hypotheses of how the deletion of common features of varying attractiveness affects consumers' prior preferences. When participants were informed that a common feature of their available choices was unavailable, their preference decreased relatively for one alternative compared with another alternative. This effect was not contingent on the deleted feature's attractiveness. The findings reveal that the deletion of common features tends to motivate consumers to disregard the overall utility of the prior preferred option rather than to activate confirmatory reasoning for consolidating a previous choice. Thus, by deleting common features of a promotional package, marketers risk altering consumers' prior preferences and may lose their advantage over competitors. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Smiling less at LIFFE

This study investigates the structure of the implied volatility smile, using the prices of equity options traded on the LIFFE. First, the slope of the implied volatility curve is significantly negative for both individual stocks and index options, and the slope is less negative for longer‐term options. The implied volatility skew can be described by risk‐neutral skewness and kurtosis, with the former having the first‐order effect. Moreover, the implied volatility skew for individual stock options is less severe than for index options. Finally, the relationship between the real and risk‐neutral moments implied in option prices is significant. The results indicate that, for equity options traded on the LIFFE, the slope of the implied volatility skew is flatter than that on the Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE). © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:57–81, 2008