Risks,Resilience, and Reforms: Indonesia’s Financial System in 2019

Indonesia has managed the complex challenges of the global economy well. The country's capital outflows were smaller in 2018 than during the Taper Tantrum in 2013; the rupiah had regained most of its lost ground by January 2019; the Indonesian stock market has outperformed its peers; growth is forecast to remain stable; inflation is low; unemployment remains below its five-year average; consumer and business confidence are robust; and the government budget has improved through a smaller deficit and cheaper borrowing costs. But significant risks remain. This paper assesses these risks and evaluates the adequacy of Indonesia's crisis management framework. It finds that the framework has serious deficiencies that could see liquidity challenges become systemic solvency crises. The framework effectively removes Bank Indonesia as the lender of last resort, risks politicising the process of crisis response, and could mean slower, less effective responses to crises. This paper explores how the framework could be improved and what reforms could be undertaken to deepen Indonesia's financial system, strengthen financial resilience, and boost the long-term growth outlook.     

资本流动与上海郊区城镇化建设

文章运用F-H模型和新增长模型分析资本流动对上海郊区城镇化建设的促进作用,并对近十年来上海郊区资本流动规模进行测算。分析结果表明,在上海郊区城镇化建设过程中,各区县的资本流动性较高,资本流动规模逐年增加,并且呈现为资本净流入情况。资本流动促进了上海郊区资本要素及其他生产要素的再配置,提高了资源的利用效率,有利于国民经济整体增长率的提高,对城镇化建设和地区经济增长具有巨大贡献。因此,在未来我国城镇化进程中,要充分发挥资本流动对不同层次市场主体的影响作用,通过增加资本流动的动力机制,加快资本流动对城镇化和经济增长的促进作用。     

冲床自动保护系统的设计研究

设计了一种红外光电自动保护系统,该系统由发光器、受光器、同步发讯开关和控制器四部分组成。光电自动保护系统采用调制式红外发光二极管作光源,其电路有可靠的自检自保功能,实现了系统的稳定性。该自动保护系统具有较高的可靠性,适宜在涉及冲压作业的现场使用。     

Corporate social responsibility as an employee governance tool: Evidence from a quasi‐experiment

Research summary : This study examines whether companies employ corporate social responsibility (CSR) to improve employee engagement and mitigate adverse behavior at the workplace (e.g., shirking, absenteeism). We exploit plausibly exogenous changes in state unemployment insurance (UI) benefits from 1991 to 2013. Higher UI benefits reduce the cost of being unemployed and hence increase employees' incentives to engage in adverse behavior. We find that higher UI benefits are associated with higher engagement in employee‐related CSR. This finding suggests that companies use CSR as a strategic management tool—specifically, an employee governance tool—to increase employee engagement and counter the possibility of adverse behavior. We further examine plausible mechanisms underlying this relationship. Managerial summary : This study examines whether companies employ corporate social responsibility (CSR) to improve employee engagement and mitigate adverse behavior at the workplace (e.g., shirking, absenteeism). We find that companies react to increased risk of adverse behavior by strategically increasing their investment in employee‐related CSR (e.g., work‐life balance benefits, health and safety policies). Our findings have important managerial implications. In particular, they suggest that CSR may help companies motivate and engage their employees. Hence, companies dealing with employees that are unmotivated, regularly absent, or engage in other forms of adverse behavior, may find it worthwhile to design and implement effective CSR practices. Further, our findings suggest that CSR can be used as employee governance tool. Accordingly, managers could benefit from integrating CSR considerations into their strategic planning. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

西部地区能源开发、环境质量与区域经济协同发展研究

本文首先依据西部地区1990～2010年的能源产量和工业SO2排放量数据,将西部地区分成能源富集区和能源贫乏区以及高SO2排放区和低SO2排放区,初步分析了各分区内经济发展质量差异;然后通过构建西部分省区随机影响变截距模型,对能源和环境约束下的西部地区全要素生产率增长率进行了估算,并以此为基础进行了西部地区要素贡献率分解核算.研究结果表明:西部地区经济增长方式正在向集约型增长转变,全要素生产率代表的技术进步对经济增长的推动作用逐步增强;但是资本和能源对西部地区能源富集省份经济发展仍起着至关重要作用,西部地区的经济增长仍没有完全摆脱资本推动型的增长路径;而劳动对西部地区经济增长的贡献份额则为负,已经成为经济增长的阻碍.此外,不同能源开发程度和环境质量特征的省区对西部整个地区全要素生产率和增长率的要素贡献率仍存在较大差距.     

Hedging under multiple risk constraints

Motivated by the asset–liability management problems under shortfall risk constraints, we consider in a general discrete-time framework the problem of finding the least expensive portfolio whose shortfalls with respect to a given set of stochastic benchmarks are bounded by a specific shortfall risk measure. We first show how the price of this portfolio may be computed recursively by dynamic programming for different shortfall risk measures, in complete and incomplete markets. We then focus on the specific situation where the shortfall risk constraints are imposed at each period on the next-period shortfalls, and obtain explicit results. Finally, we apply our results to a realistic asset–liability management problem of an energy company, and show how the shortfall risk constraints affect the optimal hedging of liabilities.     

Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion

This paper studies the problem of trading futures with transaction costs when the underlying spot price is mean-reverting. Specifically, we model the spot dynamics by the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck, Cox–Ingersoll–Ross, or exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model. The futures term structure is derived and its connection to futures price dynamics is examined. For each futures contract, we describe the evolution of the roll yield, and compute explicitly the expected roll yield. For the futures trading problem, we incorporate the investor’s timing option to enter or exit the market, as well as a chooser option to long or short a futures upon entry. This leads us to formulate and solve the corresponding optimal double stopping problems to determine the optimal trading strategies. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the optimal entry and exit boundaries under different models. We find that the option to choose between a long or short position induces the investor to delay market entry, as compared to the case where the investor pre-commits to go either long or short.     

面板数据下的线性混合模型及其在车险费率厘定中的应用

精算师在进行车险净保费信度厘定时可采用关于面板数据的线性混合模型,本文采用每次交通事故平均损失额和事故发生频率作为车险净保费的计算指标。利用2008~2012年31个省、市、自治区5年的数据,建立面板数据下的线性混合模型,选取人均地区生产总值、每平方公里人口数、民用汽车拥有量作为解释变量,得到每次交通事故平均损失额和事故发生频率的估计模型,进而得到纯保费估计。这一研究可为车险费率市场化提供一定的理论支持和参考。     

国外公司公民思想研究新进展

公司公民思想是20世纪90年代公司社会责任概念与利益相关者理论相融合的产物,先是由公司在实践层面运用,然后得到了政府的推动,最终激发了学者们的研究热情。公司公民思想的内涵由初期的局部观逐步发展到目前的营销工具观和战略投资观,公司公民思想的发展历经初始、参与、创新、整合和转型五个阶段,公司公民思想发挥作用需要具备一定的制度条件。     

制度经济学视野下税制变迁类型研究

在制度经济学视野下研究税制变迁类型,是从税制变迁过程中个人行为对税制变迁的影响以及在税制变迁过程中每一个特定时点上税制的静态特征对比的角度分析的。在这个意义上,税制变迁可以分为:使生产效率提高的税制变迁;改变收入分配状态的税制变迁;重新配置经济机会的税制变迁;使生产效率和社会福利降低的税制变迁,等等。