Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application

We describe a simple iterative method for solving large dynamic CGE models under rational expectations. Details are given for Australia's MONASH model but the approach applies to a wide range of CGE models. The method is automated in the RunMONASH Windows software, putting CGE modelling under rational expectations within the reach of non-specialist modellers. We provide an illustrative application in which MONASH results under rational expectations are compared with results under static expectations. The application and supporting software can be downloaded. Results from the application are interpreted in terms of elementary economic mechanisms.     

Mortgage Refinancing Activity: An Explanation [1990–2001]

Mortgage refinancing activity reached unprecedented high levels during 1990–2001. Using GARCH to control for heteroskedasticity and separating the data into regimes to control for potential structural changes over time, we estimate a model explaining changes in mortgage refinancing activity over the period studied. We find changes in refinancing activity to be negatively related to current as well as past changes in the 30-year mortgage rate with a declining significant lag over time. Similarly, there is a significant lagged dependent variable with a declining lag. Moreover, mortgage refinancing activity is a substitute for other investments during certain regimes. These results offer evidence that home owners cash out the mortgage for other investments. The lags suggest that the process is delayed for a variety of reasons. The declining lag signals a faster response by consumers. The reasons for a faster response include a consumer perception that interest rates have “bottomed out,” the presence of an increase in consumer sophistication, and improvements in technology and market coordination that facilitate and reduce the cost of the refinancing process.     

Ethical perceptions of Asian managers: evidence of trends in six divergent national contexts

Global link building is having a substantial impact in every sphere of Asian managerial activity. The economic upheavals of the Asian ?nancial crisis have cast a long shadow, and ethical clarity has become a social issue. For instance, corporate performance in terms of long-term survival, growth and global competency is seen to depend to a considerable extent upon the ethical infrastructur of managers and emerging managerial culture in Asia. One ?eld in which Asian managers and their managerial practices are often considered weak is the area of ethical clarity. Corporate managerial leaders in Asia need to develop new responses to the ethical complexities arising out of the increasing global interfaces. In spite of a growing awareness of the importance of ethical centrality in an intensely competitive international business arena, very little empirical work has been conducted to strengthen the relevant management literatures. The purpose of the research reported in this paper was to examine the perceptions of ethical probity among managers in six Asian countries. The results of the study indicate interesting convergences and divergences across countries and organisational demographies. The ?ndings lead to observations of the apparent similarities of ethical conceptualisation in global, societal and often in the organisational arena while revealing noticeable divergences in the domain of individual ethical perceptions.     

A note on business replies to consumer letters of praise and complaint

Business firms require feedback from the marketplace to determine whether or not the needs of the firm's customers are being satisfied. When feedback takes the form of consumer letters, it seems obvious that it is simply good marketing practice to respond to letters of complaint and good consumer relations to respond to any letter from a consumer. With the dual objectives of providing introductory marketing students with a meaningful and participatory exercise in consumerism and of exploring an apparently virgin research area, a project was undertaken which generated 250 letters to business firms concerning their products and services. The analysis of the business firms' responses attempted to find out: What types of business firms replied? In what from did these firms reply? And, how did the “customers” react to their replies?     

A random coefficient autoregressive Markov regime switching model for dynamic futures hedging

The random coefficient autoregressive Markov regime switching model (RCARRS) for estimating optimal hedge ratios, which generalizes the random coefficient autoregressive (RCAR) and Markov regime switching (MRS) models, is introduced. RCARRS, RCAR, MRS, BEKK‐GARCH, CC‐GARCH, and OLS are compared with the use of aluminum and lead futures data. RCARRS outperforms all models out‐of‐sample for lead and is second only to BEKK‐GARCH for aluminum in terms of variancereduction point estimates. White's data‐snooping reality check null hypothesis of no superiority is rejected for BEKK‐GARCH and RCARRS for aluminum, but not for lead. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:103–129, 2006     

Measuring Efficiency: A Comparison of Multilevel Modelling and Data Envelopment Analysis in the Context of Higher Education

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and multilevel modelling (MLM) are applied to a data set of 54,564 graduates from UK universities in 1993 to assess whether the choice of technique affects the measurement of universities’ performance. A methodology developed by Thanassoulis and Portela (2002; Education Economics, 10(2), pp. 183–207) allows each individual's DEA efficiency score to be decomposed into two components: one attributable to the university at which the student studied and the other attributable to the individual student. From the former component, a measure of each institution's teaching efficiency is derived and compared to the university effects from various multilevel models. The comparisons are made within four broad subjects: pure science, applied science, social science and arts. The results show that the rankings of universities derived from the DEA efficiencies which measure the universities’ own performance (i.e., having excluded the efforts of the individuals) are not strongly correlated with the university rankings derived from the university effects of the multilevel models. The data were also used to perform a university‐level DEA. The university efficiency scores derived from these DEAs are largely unrelated to the scores from the individual‐level DEAs, confirming a result from a smaller data set (Johnes, 2006a; European Journal of Operational Research, forthcoming). However, the university‐level DEAs provide efficiency scores which are generally strongly related to the university effects of the multilevel models.     

The management of cross-disciplinary research

This paper is based on a critical review of the proceedings of the Second International Conference on Interdisciplinary Research held in 1981 in Manchester, England. Two sets of issues important for the management of collaborative research are identified. One is the need to remove ambiguities from the meanings of commonly used terminology, for which more precise definitions are proposed. Cross-disciplinary is used to describe only the nature of the task; multi- and inter-disciplinary are seen as describing alternative organizational ways of executing it. Which way should be used depends objectively on the circumstances.
The other set of issues is concerned with the effect institutional setting could have on the possibility of carrying out effective cross-disciplinary activity. Six different settings are identified and broad concepts of group dynamics are used to identify theoretical and practical problems and their possible solutions. The paper concludes with a survey of the practical implications for those managing cross-disciplinary research.     

Guidelines for a telephone group interview

Group interviews for purposes of marketing research have been around for many years, but when the authors began their research work underlying this article, they believed that no group interview had ever been done by telephone. They learned they were wrong, although the work they did was among the earliest in the field. The article reviews what other work has been done in the field, outlines their work, and provides a preliminary statement of guidelines for conducting group interviews.