International Trade Finance and Exports: Evidence from Korean Bank-Intermediated Trade Finance Instruments

This paper investigates the effects of trade finance shocks on real exports by using novel data on two bank-intermediated instruments of trade finance in Korea: foreign trade loans extended by commercial banks and documentary bills purchased by them. Using a vector autoregression (VAR) model, the results show that a negative shock to both instruments adversely affects exports, particularly the exports of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The trade financing condition explains as much as 10–14 % of the variation in exports, which is comparable to the estimates in previous studies. Noteworthy is that the effects of trade finance on SME exports vary upon whether it is pre- or post-shipment financing.     

An Empirical Examination of the Parimutuel Sports Lottery Market versus the Bookmaker Market

A sports lottery in Korea presents a unique opportunity for comparing a parimutuel‐type sports lottery market against a bookmaker market outside the realm of horse racing. Using two‐ and three‐game soccer final‐score betting in the sports lottery market in Korea, which features matches in the English Premier League, we compare winning payoffs in this parimutuel‐type sports lottery against corresponding payoffs from an established bookmaker market in the United Kingdom. We find that for outcomes with relatively high payouts (that is, lower‐probability events), winning bets placed in the sports lottery market have greater payoffs than corresponding bets placed in the bookmaker‐based market. However, the opposite is true for outcomes with relatively low payouts (that is, higher‐probability events). Results suggest that participants in the sports lottery market tend to bet more toward high‐probability events than the amount implied by the bookmaker's odds. Results also suggest that the favorite‐longshot bias is still present in the bookmaker market, even when there is less threat of privately informed bettors than in horse racing.     

Vertical Specialization and Trade Growth in Northeast Asia

As the global economy has become further integrated, the international production chain has become more sophisticated, with diversified stages of production located in different countries. Economic theorists have argued that the fragmentation of the global production chain is partly attributable to the high growth in international trade over the past several decades. In this study, we examine vertical specialization in China, Japan and Korea, and its contribution to these nations' trade. Using a multilevel model, it is illustrated that vertical specialization has encouraged increases in trade among all three countries. In particular, China's outcome is remarkable considering how recently it became a member of the WTO.     

Die Außenwirtschaft der UdSSR in der zeit von perestrojka

The study of divided government is one of important fields in public choice theory. American voters split their ballots as if intent on preserving divided party control. The U.S. House of Representatives has consistently been Democratic for much of the twentieth century. As indicated by Sprague, it is theoretically true that a number of significant consequences for partisan control of a legislature are entailed by the unequal distribution of seat safety under conditions of high levels of institutionalization. The problem is how to measure the institutionalization of partisan seat safety in a time‐series. The model proposed by Sprague is somewhat awkward and complicated in measuring it. This paper provides a more plausible model and tests empirical data.     

The 7th Asia-Pacific CHRIE Conference

Despite the increase in use of user-generated electronic content as an information source by tourists, its influence in destination image formation is not yet fully understood. This research aimed to explore the communicated destination image held by tourists to Zanzibar Island (Tanzania) by utilizing communications in Lonely Planet. Content analysis of 214 posts using TextSTAT yielded 13 destination attributes. Comparatively, functional attributes were dominant in potential tourists whereas post-travel image perception was dominated by psychological attributes. Those who have visited tended to have a positive image of the island compared with those who are planning to visit the island. The results necessitate the differential use of the functional- and psychological-based information in communicating with tourists at different information-search stages. Studies to capture communications in another language are recommended as well as the employment of methodologies that might reveal hidden images held by tourists.     

Structural effects of cognitive and affective reponses to web advertisements,website and brand attitudes,and purchase intentions: The case of casual-dining restaurants

This study investigates the structural relationships among responses to website advertisements, website attitudes, brand attitudes, and purchase intentions in the case of web advertisements for casual-dining restaurants. Responses toward advertising (Rad) factors were categorized as cognitive responses and affective responses. The SEM model in LISREL was used to examine the interrelationships among the proposed hypothesized constructs. Several empirical results were obtained. First, Rad had a positive effect on website attitudes. Second, website attitudes had a positive effect on brand attitudes. Third, brand attitudes had a positive effect on purchase intentions. Finally, some discussion and implications of the study are provided.     

Predicting the Loss Given Default Distribution with the Zero-Inflated Censored Beta-Mixture Regression that Allows Probability Masses and Bimodality

Journal of Financial Services Research - We propose a new procedure to predict the loss given default (LGD) distribution. Studies find empirical evidence that LGD values have a high concentration...     

A logistic regression point of view toward loss given default distribution estimation

We propose a new procedure to estimate the loss given default (LGD) distribution. Owing to the complicated shape of the LGD distribution, using a smooth density function as a driver to estimate it may result in a decline in model fit. To overcome this problem, we first apply the logistic regression to estimate the LGD cumulative distribution function. Then, we convert the result into the LGD distribution estimate. To implement the newly proposed estimation procedure, we collect a sample of 5269 defaulted debts from Moody’s Default and Recovery Database. A performance study is performed using 2000 pairs of in-sample and out-of-sample data-sets with different sizes that are randomly selected from the entire sample. Our results show that the newly proposed procedure has better and more robust performance than its alternatives, in the sense of yielding more accurate in-sample and out-of-sample LGD distribution estimates. Thus, it is useful for studying the LGD distribution.