Exports, imports and firm survival: first evidence for manufacturing enterprises in Germany

This paper investigates the links between firm survival and three types of international trade activities—exports, imports and two-way trade. It uses unique new representative data for manufacturing enterprises from Germany, one of the leading actors on the world market for goods. The paper contributes to the literature by providing the first evidence on the role of imports and two-way trading for firm survival in a highly developed country. The result indicate a strong positive link between firm survival on the one hand and imports and two-way trading on the other hand, while exporting alone does not play a role for exiting the market or not.     

全球性量化宽松意味着全球性长期通胀

【摩根士丹利7月3日】目前,许多国家的总体通胀率已陷入负区间,而全球经济才刚刚摆脱“大衰退”。在这种情况下担忧通胀风险,如果不说是荒唐,似乎至少也是为时过早。现在看来,大多数投资者并不担心通胀风险。事实上,根据市场数据推算,目前美国和欧元区的10年期通胀预期都不到2％,低于过去十年间的实际通胀率。但我们认为,市场对长期通胀风险过于乐观了;未来十年的通胀率看来更有可能大大超过、而非低于过去十年间的平均通胀率。     

Small firm entry in manufacturing industries: Lower Saxony, 1979–1989

This paper is an empirical study of inter-industry and inter-temporal variations in entry of new firms using longitudinal data covering all manufacturing establishments in Lower Saxony between 1979 and 1989. Patterns of entry are reported for 29 industries based on numbers of new firms, gross rates of entry, and entry intensities (shares of employees) in different types and size classes of new firms. Entry varies considerably between firm types, industries, and over time. Focussing on entry by small single firms an empirical model is applied to search for industry characteristics that are highly correlated with entry. Pooling of cross-section and time-series data allows to control for influences of varying macroeconomic conditions and unobserved industry characteristics. A highly robust estimation method is applied for the first time in a study of entry rates, and it turns out that extreme observations often have large effect on the results. Entry intensity tends to be positively related to industry growth, concentration, and high unemployment, but negatively to high interest rates, profits, and (insignificantly) to intensive use of capital and R&D. I plead for further research vialearning by asking those who are doing.This paper is part of the research project Production, Employment Growth, and Exports by Lower Saxonian Firms. The computations based on the establishment level data from the official surveys of the manufacturing sector were made possible by a special arrangement between the Ministry of Economics, the Statistical Office, and the Labor Research Group at the Department of Economics, Hannover University. I thank Uwe Rode from the Lower Saxonian Statistical Office for preparing the longitudinal establishment level data base. Financial support from research funds provided by the state of Lower Saxony is gratefully acknowledged.     

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND COMMERCIALIZATION IN AGRICULTURE: The Effect on the Poor

Do the economic gains brought by technological innovation andcommercialization in agriculture work their way through to thepoor? The prevailing optimistic view is that they do. But thisview is not universal: some hold that these forces for changecan interact with, or even induce, institutional and marketfailure, with adverse consequences for the poor. Adherents of the pessimistic view point to real-world instancesin which the poor have failed to reap the benefits, or evenhave lost, from the technological change or commercialization.Where these effects have occurred we find that they are mostlyattributable to inelastic demand or adverse institutional features;often, when technology or commercialization has been blamedfor the decline in income of the poor, other—not necessarilyconnected—policies have in fact been responsible for thedamage. This article contends that the optimistic view is, by and large,correct: normally, technology and commercialization stimulateagricultural growth, improve employment opportunities, and expandfood supply—all central to the alleviation of poverty.The evidence does not offer much encouragement to an extensionof this view—that through "social engineering" the benefitsfrom technology and commercialization can easily be targetedtoward the poor; the limited opportunities for such targetingshould of course be seized.      

Exchange rate uncertainty and the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and the Efficiency of the Forward Market for Foreign Exchange. — The paper investigates to what extent exchange rate uncertainty can account for the observed deviations from the forward market efficiency hypothesis (FMEH). The empirical analysis employs a simple varying parameter regression to allow uncertainty to modify the central parameters of the FMEH in a direct way. Uncertainty is proxied by significant exchange rate changes. The results indicate that there is considerable support for the FMEH if one allows the intercept term to vary over time.     

Wirtschaftskultur und Transformation

Die neoklassische Wirtschaftstheorie hatte die kulturelle Einbettung des Wirtschaftens nicht berücksichtigt. Die neuere Wirtschaftsforschung geht aber davon aus, dass die Kultur eine Rolle spielt. Wie wirken sich kulturelle Traditionen auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung aus? Welchen Einfluss hat die Kultur auf den Transformationsprozess? PD Dr. Joachim Zweynert, 36, ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung Europ?ische Integration im Hamburgischen WeltWirtschaftsArchiv (HWWA). * Dieser Aufsatz resultiert aus dem gemeinschaftlich von der Universit?t Hamburg und dem Hamburgischen Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv durchgeführten Forschungsprojekt „Die historisch-kulturelle Pfadabh?ngigkeit der Transformationsprozesse in ehemals sozialistischen L?ndern des Ostseeraums und ihre Bedeutung für die Erweiterung der EU“. Das Projekt wird von der VolkswagenStiftung gef?rdert.     

Trends als Katalysator einer Marketingkarriere

Trends, echte Innovationen und sich schnell überholende Modewellen bieten Chancen und Gefahren zugleich für Karrieren im Marketing. Insbesondere Führungskr?fte im Marketing sind mit einer gewissen Schnelllebigkeit konfrontiert. Diese ist durchaus Grund genug für Karrierepfade, die nichts mit einer typischen Karriereplanung, wie sie in anderen betriebswirtschaftlichen Disziplinen heute oftmals noch üblich sind, zu tun haben. Der folgende Beitrag widmet sich dem Zusammenwirken von Trends und Karrieren vor dem Hintergrund der Markenführung als Fachthema im Grenzgebiet zwischen Marketing und Unternehmensführung.