A historical irony in the making? State,private sector and land reform in the South African wine industry

This article traces the development of the land distribution policy of the Department of Land Affairs (DLA) of South Africa. Despite the DLA ‘s political commitment to land reform by way of restitution, redistribution and tenure reform, to date no small‐scale wine farmers have been settled in South Africa by virtue of this policy. Three case studies describe how agricultural labourers have successfully gained access to this lucrative sector through private sector intervention. It is also argued that the small farm versus large farm debate masks the real opportunities for land reform in the wine industry.     

Klaus Merten 60 Jahre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Parametric Portfolio Policies in the Surplus Consumption Ratio

The surplus consumption ratio plays a central role as a state variable in successful attempts to explain the time series properties of stock and bond prices with consumption‐based asset pricing models. In this paper, optimal portfolio policies for a strategic investor who maximizes the conditionally expected utility of terminal wealth are parameterized as a polynomial in the surplus consumption ratio. Optimal portfolio policies are estimated using a method of moments estimator based on Euler equations. Unconditional portfolio policies are rejected in favor of conditional policies. Lower order polynomials are rejected in favor of higher order polynomials. Optimal stock and bond allocations are clearly countercyclical.     

Exports, imports and firm survival: first evidence for manufacturing enterprises in Germany

This paper investigates the links between firm survival and three types of international trade activities—exports, imports and two-way trade. It uses unique new representative data for manufacturing enterprises from Germany, one of the leading actors on the world market for goods. The paper contributes to the literature by providing the first evidence on the role of imports and two-way trading for firm survival in a highly developed country. The result indicate a strong positive link between firm survival on the one hand and imports and two-way trading on the other hand, while exporting alone does not play a role for exiting the market or not.     

Urbanization and poverty reduction: the role of rural diversification and secondary towns1

A rather unique panel tracking more than 3,300 individuals from households in rural Kagera, Tanzania, during 1991/1994–2010 shows that about one out of two individuals/households who exited poverty did so by transitioning out of agriculture into the rural nonfarm economy or secondary towns. Only one out of seven exited poverty by migrating to the big cities, even though those moving to the city experienced on average faster consumption growth. Further analysis of a much larger cross‐country panel of 51 developing countries cannot reject that rural diversification and secondary town development lead to more inclusive growth patterns than metropolitization. Indications are that this follows because more of the poor find their way to the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns, than to distant cities. The development discourse would benefit from shifting beyond the rural–urban dichotomy and focusing more instead on how best to urbanize and develop its rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns.     

Establishment exits in Germany: the role of size and age

Using comprehensive data for West Germany, this paper investigates the determinants of establishment exit. We find that between 1975 and 2006 the average exit rate has risen considerably. In order to test various “liabilities” of establishment survival identified in the literature, we analyzed the impact of establishment size and put a special focus on differences between young and mature establishments. Our empirical analysis shows that the mortality risk falls with establishment size, which confirms the liability of smallness. The probability of exit is substantially higher for young establishments which are not more than 5 years old, thus confirming the liability of newness. There also exists a liability of aging since exit rates first decline over time, reaching a minimum at ages 15–18, and then rise again somewhat. The determinants of exit differ substantially between young and mature establishments, suggesting that young establishments are more vulnerable in a number of ways.